基于Petri网的进近操作管理模型研究

据世界民航所发生的飞行事故情况看,进近着陆阶段时间短、任务重、环境复杂,是飞行事故多发阶段,占很大的比重,因此进近着陆是保证飞行安全的重要阶段。大多数事故是发生在仪表着陆系统出现故障的非精密进近方式。以机组非精密进近的主要飞行操作为基础建立基于Petri网的事故致因模型,统计分析相关的致因因素,计算相关风险值,通过对数据的分析反馈,形成对相应飞行员的针对性学习及训练的系统性管理模式。     

Safety issues related to the maintenance operations in a vegetable oil refinery: A case study

The present work was focused on maintenance hazards related to vegetable oil refining. An incident occurred in an Italian vegetable oil refinery was presented to evidence this safety criticality. The incident took place during a maintenance shut down, and was associated to the ignition of the solid residual in a packed column. No fatalities or injuries were reported, but the column was strongly damaged and removed from the plant. A specific experimental characterization of the solid residues accumulated in the column, sampled both from the damaged and undamaged parts of the column, was carried out in order to determine the conditions leading to unwanted combustion of the residues. At the same time, samples taken from the damaged column steelwork were subjected to metallurgical analysis aimed at the thermal and mechanical characterization of the steel, obtaining information about the incident duration and temperature reached during the combustion phenomenon. The study evidenced the need of adequate maintenance procedures and safety management in the generic framework of food industry, identified as key lessons learned.     

秦山核电厂换料大修高风险作业控制应用及优化

根据秦山核电厂三十万千瓦机组换料大修高风险作业控制实践经验,介绍一种基于安全许可管理的大修高风险作业控制模式,将高风险作业控制流程嵌入电站生产管理系统,与工单直接关联,实现了高危作业活动识别、风险分析及安全防护措施制定电子流程化。通过对电厂最近六次机组换料大修高风险作业控制相关数据统计、比较,评价高风险作业控制模式在电厂大修中应用效果的稳定性与有效性;根据核电厂大修类作业项目特点,提出机组换料大修期间大纲作业项目高风险作业控制改进方向。     

Potential nitrogen enrichment of soil and surface water by atmospheric ammonia sorption in intensive livestock production areas

Elevated atmospheric NH₃ levels near intensive livestock operations can add significant N to local agroecosystems. In this study, the potential atmospheric NH₃ sorbed by soil and water was assessed over a 2-year period starting October 2000 in an intensive livestock production area in southern Alberta, Canada. Fifty-two uneven grid sampling sites were selected in the 53,905 ha study area. The sorption rate of atmospheric NH₃ was estimated weekly by exposing distilled water and air-dried soil samples to the atmosphere at the sampling sites. The increases in NH₄–N content in the samples after 1-week exposure was regarded as an index of the atmospheric NH₃ sorbed for that week. The NH₃ sorption rates were highly variable across the 52 sites, with water ranging from 4 to 125 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ with a mean of 22 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ and soil from 5 to 84 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ with a mean of 20 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. Considerable variation in NH₃–N sorption across the study area reflects the effects of size, direction (upwind or downwind) and proximity of nearby livestock operations or other NH₃ sources and operators’ activities around the sampling sites. The NH₃ sorption rate at each site also varied considerably in response to weather conditions. The high rate of NH₃ input poses a direct risk of surface water eutrophication in intensive livestock operation areas. If fertilizer recommendations are not reduced to account for NH₃ sorption by soil, excess N may also contribute to eutrophication through runoff and leaching.     

A comparison of fixed-site and non-fixed-site approaches for species protection

The efficacy of simultaneously advancing two distinct conceptual designs (referred to here as fixed-site and non-fixed-site) for species conservation and protection is addressed. In the literature, numerous models can be found that typically stem from a particular design, but rarely are comparisons made between approaches. This paper presents a more integrated optimization framework that models landowner behavior and species viabilities at a landscape scale. Regional demand for resource extraction is used as the economic driver, a variant of simulated annealing is used to solve the model under different species protection approaches, and a detailed species population simulator is utilized to measure biological responses. When directly comparing the outcomes of different species protection strategies from a case study in Oregon (USA), it was found that neither approach was universally superior in terms of financial value or degree of protection for two late seral forest dependent species.     

A Nationwide Analysis of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Reservoir Performance in Meeting Operational Targets

The United States (U.S.) Army Corps of Engineers operates reservoirs across the U.S. with 89% of reservoirs constructed prior to 1980. Many reservoirs have experienced changes in environmental conditions (e.g., climate and sediment yield) and societal conditions (e.g., water/energy demand and ecological flows) since construction. These changes may challenge the potential for reservoirs to meet their operational targets (OTs) (management goals). Historic daily reservoir data and OTs were collected for 233 reservoirs. Analyses were developed to identify when and where reservoirs may be systematically departing from OTs in terms of the frequency and magnitude of departure. Fifty‐six percent of reservoirs consistently met operating targets, 30% were borderline, and 13% experienced frequent and large magnitude departures. Fifty‐two percent of reservoirs with large departures were due to shortages and were located in the South Pacific and Southwestern divisions. This work provides a framework to identify reservoir performance in relation to management goals, a necessary step for moving toward adaptive management under changing conditions. All individual reservoir analyses are provided via an interactive data visualization tool: https://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/reservoir-data .     

Loss Rates from Lake Powell and Their Impact on Management of the Colorado River

As demand for water in the southwestern United States increases and climate change potentially decreases the natural flows in the Colorado River system, there will be increased need to optimize the water supply. Lake Powell is a large reservoir with potentially high loss rates to bank storage and evaporation. Bank storage is estimated as a residual in the reservoir water balance. Estimates of local inflow contribute uncertainty to estimates of bank storage. Regression analyses of local inflow with gaged tributaries have improved the estimate of local inflow. Using a stochastic estimate of local inflow based on the standard error of the regression estimator and of gross evaporation based on observed variability at Lake Mead, a reservoir water balance was used to estimate that more than 14.8 billion cubic meters (Gm³) has been stored in the banks, with a 90% probability that the value is actually between 11.8 and 18.5 Gm³. Groundwater models developed by others, observed groundwater levels, and simple transmissivity calculations confirm these bank storage estimates. Assuming a constant bank storage fraction for simulations of the future may cause managers to underestimate the actual losses from the reservoir. Updated management regimes which account more accurately for bank storage and evaporation could save water that will otherwise be lost to the banks or evaporation.     

Particulate matter and metals partitioning in highway rainfall-runoff

This study investigated the particulate matter (PM) and metals in highway dry deposition and rainfall-runoff as a function of hydrologic transport and settling on an event basis. Events were differentiated as mass-limited (ML) and flow-limited (FL). Results indicate that unique and separate suspended sediment concentration (SSC) relationships with turbidity occurred for ML and FL events. Sixty minutes of quiescent settling produced a single SSC-turbidity relationship for all events. ML events transport higher proportions of settleable and sediment PM while FL events transported relatively higher suspended PM. For batch clarification with one hour of settling, ML events had generally higher treatment efficiencies compared to FL events for the same settling conditions. Highway dry deposition PM was hetero-disperse and coarse (d _{50 m} = 304 μm). Results indicate that the acidic rainfall is not a significant contributor to metals in runoff but is capable of leaching metals from dry deposition PM into runoff. Partitioning in retained runoff resulted in a particulate-bound predominance for most metals except Ca and Mg. While the finer fraction of dry deposition PM (< 75 μm) generates the highest metal concentrations, the highest metal mass is associated with the coarser fraction (> 75 μm).     

铁路隧道救援站火灾模拟实验平台设计及细水雾系统抑制车厢火灾的模拟实验研究

按照1：1尺度设计了实验平台,包括模拟隧道、模拟列车、排烟系统、火灾监控系统、火灾扑救系统以及火灾参数测量系统,是国内第一个专门对铁路隧道救援站的火灾安全性进行系统研究的全尺寸实验平台。实验平台可实现温度场、燃烧成分、火源热辐射等关键参数的测量;可研究不同工况条件下,火灾监控、火灾扑救技术和烟气控制技术的有效性,为发现火灾特征参数的演变规律和掌握有效的火灾控制技术提供了一整套解决方案,具有广阔的应用前景和重要的实际指导意义。本文建立并利用这样一个全尺寸实验平台进行了细水雾灭火系统抑制车厢火灾的模拟实验研究,获取温度、有毒有害气体浓度、热辐射等火场重要参数,发现细水雾灭火系统可有效的抑制车厢火灾,并验证了此实验平台用于铁路隧道内列车火灾实验研究的可行性和有效性。