Communication and use of climate scenarios for climate change adaptation in Finland,Sweden and Norway

This paper assesses the communication and the use of climate scenarios at the science–science and science–policy interface in Finland, Sweden and Norway. It is based on document analysis and stakeholder questionnaires. The questionnaires targeted three stakeholder groups, all engaged in the communication and the use of climate scenario information: climate scenario producers; impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) experts; and policy-makers. The respondents were asked to identify issues associated with the communication of scenarios and other needs pertaining to the usefulness and availability of such information. Despite the relatively long history of climate change adaptation in the three countries, climate scenarios are not utilised to their full potential. Climate scenarios have been used in awareness raising, problem understanding and strategy development. However, far less examples can be found on adaptation actions, particularly on harnessing the benefits of climate change. The communication between climate scenario producers and IAV experts functions well; however, communication between climate researchers and policy-makers is less efficient. Each country has developed boundary services to enhance dissemination of the climate scenario information to policy-makers. They are cost-efficient but do not necessarily enhance the comprehension of the information and encourage the actual dialogue between scenario producers and the end-users. Further translation of scenario information to impact and vulnerability estimates together with established boundary work could improve the use of climate research information. As adaptation policy in these countries further progresses towards implementation, there are increasing expectations of support from research, further challenging the communication of climate scenarios.     

一种可以实现救援对接的4自由度并联机器人设计方法

笔者设计出一种可以在潜水艇和空间飞行器救援对接中实现对接的 4自由度的并联机器人机构。其中 3个为转动自由度 ,1个为移动自由度。分别用于对接过程中的位置和姿态调节。给出了其设计的基本原则和运动副放置条件。利用螺旋理论分析了设计的正确性 ,证明了它所具有的 4个自由度完全满足设计要求。为并联机器人在安全救援领域的应用开展了新的方法和途径     

A criterion for developing credible accident scenarios for risk assessment

Maximum credible accident analysis is one of the most widely used concepts in risk assessment of chemical process industries. Central to this concept is the aspect of ‘credibility’ of envisaged accident scenarios. However, thus far the term credibility is mostly treated qualitatively, based on the subjective judgement of the concerned analysts. This causes wide variation in the results of the studies conducted on the same industrial unit by different analysts.

This paper presents an attempt to develop a criterion using which credible accident scenarios may be identified from among a large number of possibilities. The credible scenarios thus identified may then be processed for detailed consequence analysis. This would help in reducing the cost of the analysis and prevent undue emphasis on less credible scenarios at the expense of more credible ones.     

The adequacy of GWPs as indicators of damage costsincurred by global warming

This article looks at the ability of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) towork as indicators of equivalence for temperature development and damagecosts. We look at two abatement scenarios that are equivalent when using100-year GWPs: one scenario reduces short-lived gases, mainly methane(CH₄); the other scenario reduces carbon dioxide (CO₂).Despite their equivalence in terms of CO₂ equivalents, the scenariosdo not result in equal rates or levels of temperature change. The disparitiescontinue as we move further down the chain of causality toward damagecosts, measured either in terms of rate of climate change or level of climatechange. Compared to the CH₄ mitigation scenario, the CO₂mitigation scenario gives present value costs 1.3 and 1.5 times higher forlevel- and rate-dependent damage costs, respectively, assuming a discountrate of 3%. We also test the GWPs for other time horizons and theconclusions remain the same; using GWP as an index to reflect equivalentclimate effects and damage costs from emissions is questionable.     

No-policy greenhouse gas emission scenarios: revisiting IPCC 1992

A new set of no-policy global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios was developed using the atmospheric stabilization framework, the same modeling tool that was used to generate the IS92 emission scenarios for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Revised assumptions about population and economic growth, combined with updated information on changes in renewable energy supply, the efficiency of energy generation and other factors resulted in changes in GHG emission profiles over the next century, which led to an increase in the estimated global average temperature change as compared to the IS92 scenarios. Model results indicate that the largest increase in emissions, which led to a temperature increase of about 3.4°C by 2100 (relative to 1990), can be expected when a rapid increase in the GNP per capita levels of the non-OECD countries is combined with a low availability of solar/wind and biomass energy resources and slow energy efficiency improvements. The smallest increase in emissions and temperature by 2100 (about 2.5°C) occurred when a relatively slow increase in the GNP per capita in the non-OECD countries was combined with a high availability of renewable energy resources and rapid energy efficiency improvements.     

Pollutant dispersion in wetland systems: Mathematical modelling and numerical simulation

In this paper we present and justify an original use of a diffusive-advective partial differential equation model, its discretization procedures and resulting numerical simulations for the dispersal of pollutants in an air–water system, with distinct behaviours in water and in air. The authors believe that the relevance of the developed work lies in its potential use in practical environmental assessment processes for the definition of both preventive and clean-up strategies.     

Does a change of irrigation technique impact on groundwater resources? A case study in Northeastern Italy

The Venetian plain is a densely populated area and one of the most economically competitive regions in Europe. Therefore, a sustainable management of the water resources has to be accomplished to preserve both the social and economic value of this area and the regional environment in accordance with the European water policy directives. This paper presents the analysis of hydrologic and hydrogeological water balances of the high alluvial plain (approximately 790 km²) highlighting some important peculiarities that could be crucial for the local water policy. By focusing on the importance of different water budget components, the obtained results indicate in the irrigation the most relevant component of the aquifer recharge. Thus, the irrigation management policy of the Land Reclamation Consortia strongly influences aquifer recharge. Moreover, future scenarios (2071–2100) for the high Venetian plain are performed taking into account the changes of climate and irrigation policy. The inflow of the aquifer suffers a decrease ranging from 18% in the scenario influenced by climate change to 28% in the scenario affected by both the variations. In particular, the irrigation recharge shows the highest reduction due to both an increase in evaporation, owing to an increase in the surface temperature, or the irrigation methods. Therefore, the irrigation management policy adopted by the Land Reclamation Consortia is a fundamental concern. Changes from surface irrigation to spray or drip irrigation could strongly affect the aquifer recharge. The classical technique of surface irrigation is very useful in terms of aquifer recharge in comparison with drip or spray irrigation. However, it also requires a huge volume of water compared with the minimum desirable streamflow of a river and its management policy. Currently in Italy, the transition from conventional irrigation systems to water saving techniques is favored by the Land Reclamation Consortia in response to European and Italian directives. However, the possible reduction of the aquifer recharge could influence the actual social and economic condition of the Venetian plain because the human and industrial water needs are mostly dependent by groundwater exploitation. Therefore, water saving activities should be accompanied by appropriate corrective actions to reduce the environmental and social impact due to the decrease in aquifer recharge.     

Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution of Oak and Pine Species of Mexico

Abstract:  We examined the vulnerability of 34 species of oaks ( Quercus ) and pines ( Pinus ) to the effects of global climate change in Mexico. We regionalized the HadCM2 model of climate change with local climatic data (mean annual temperature and rainfall) and downscaled the model with the inverse distance-weighted method. Databases of herbaria specimens, genetic algorithms (GARP), and digital covers of biophysical variables that affect oaks and pines were used to project geographic distributions of the species under a severe and conservative scenario of climate change for the year 2050. Starting with the current average temperature of 20.2 °C and average precipitation of 793 mm, under the severe warming scenario mean temperature and precipitation changed to 22.7 °C and 660 mm, respectively, in 2050. For the conservative warming scenario, these variables shifted to 21.8 °C and 721 mm. Responses to the different scenarios of climate change were predicted to be species-specific and related to each species climate affinity. The current geographic distribution of oaks and pines decreased 7–48% and 0.2–64%, respectively. The more vulnerable pines were Pinus rudis , P. chihuahuana , P. oocarpa , and P. culminicola , and the most vulnerable oaks were Quercus crispipilis , Q. peduncularis , Q. acutifolia , and Q. sideroxyla . In addition to habitat conservation, we think sensitive pine and oak species should be looked at more closely to define ex situ strategies (i.e., seed preservation in germplasm banks) for their long-term conservation. Modeling climatic-change scenarios is important to the development of conservation strategies.     

Initial repercussions and hydroelectric developments in the French upper rhone valley: A lesson for predictive scenarios propositions

The authors demonstrate the difficulties inherent in predicting vegetation changes in floodplains affected by hydroelectric developments. The results are based on phytoecological studies in the Rhone River valley between Geneva and Lyon. The study is based in a 200-km stretch of river where the floodplain can attain 10 km in width. Vegetation is described for the area prior to the construction of four dams and compared with the situations 8 yr later. Research methods include systematic sampling of geomorphological, soils, and floristic factors; collection of a data base of spatial information; and large-scale vegetation mapping.     

CO2收集封存战略及其对我国远期减缓CO2排放的潜在作用

碳收集封存(CCS)已被广泛地认为是一种潜在的、可供选择的CO₂减排方案,以稳定大气中CO₂浓度、减缓气候变化.本文介绍了CCS的3大环节：碳的捕获、运输与储存,对不同捕获技术及其技术经济参数进行分析评价,介绍了不同碳地质储存的机理、潜力与成本, 以及CCS的应用对全球减缓碳排放的作用.更新中国MARKAL模型,加入各种可能的CCS技术,特别是考虑CCS的煤间接液化以及多联产技术,以同时考虑石油安全与CO₂减排.通过设置不同的情景,应用中国MARKAL模型研究了CCS对我国远期（到2050年）减缓CO₂排放的潜在作用,结果表明,CCS技术的应用不仅可能减少我国的碳排放,降低边际碳减排成本（碳减排率50%时,下降率达45%）,减轻高减排率时对核电的高度依赖,还可能使我国更长时间地清洁利用煤炭资源（在C70情景下,2050年煤在一次能源消费中的比例可从10%增到30%）.我国应重视对CCS技术的研发以及示范项目的建设.