中国区域低碳发展的情景分析——以江苏省为例

本文以江苏省为例,旨在对我国地方层面的低碳经济发展(目标年为2020年)进行探讨,并通过设定基准情景(BAU),低碳经济政策情景(LES),以及进一步推进低碳发展的国际合作与技术转移情景(ICS)三种政策情景对江苏省未来中长期能源需求与二氧化碳排放强度进行分析,提出我国地方层面实现2020年二氧化碳减排目标所需要的发展路径与对策.研究表明,在地方和区域层面上实现2020年二氧化碳排放强度在2005年的基础上降低40%-45%的目标是有可能的,通过采取发展低碳经济的相关措施,到2020年,江苏省的能源需求将比基准情景减少28%,二氧化碳排放强度将在2007年的基础上削减50%,而通过积极参与国际合作和国际间的技术转移,将有可能将二氧化碳排放强度在2007年的基础上削减52%左右.     

Regional impact analysis of climate change on natural and managed forests in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

A methodology for regional application of forest simulation models has been developed as part of an assessment of possible climate change impacts in the Federal state of Brandenburg (Germany). Here we report on the application of a forest gap model to analyse the impacts of climate change on species composition and productivity of natural and managed forests in Brandenburg using a statistical method for the development of climate scenarios. The forest model was linked to a GIS that includes soil and groundwater table maps, as well as gridded climate data with a resolution of 10 × 10 km and simulated a steady-state species composition which was classified into forest types based on the biomass distribution between species. Different climate scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. The simulated forest distribution patterns for current climate were compared with a map of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) of Brandenburg.In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, we used forest inventory data to initialize the model with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with two different management strategies indicated how forest management could respond to the projected impacts of climate change. The combination of regional analysis of natural forest dynamics under climate change with simulation experiments for managed forests outlines possible trends for the forest resources. The implications of the results are discussed, emphasizing the regional differences in environmental risks and the adaptation potentials of forestry in Brandenburg.     

电梯困人应急救援理论的初步建立

针对备受社会关注的电梯困人应急救援的快速实现,在电梯应急救援体系建设下,研究电梯困人救援的快速实现的影响因素、改进措施及标准化电梯困人应急救援体系的建立,提出了一种建立标准化电梯困人应急救援体系的理论,该理论在提升电梯应急救援效率,缩短电梯困人救援时间上给出了指导性理论,通过以某医院为实施对象进行了试验数据采集、统计与...     

因果分析与系统安全性风险评价方法

综合了故障树分析和事件树分析的方法,提出因果分析的框架,研究了基于因果分析建立事故脚本的方法。在此基础上,还对因果分析的概率风险评价方法进行研究,并利用该评价方法,对电机过热的安全性问题进行分析,给出了分析计算的结果     

Assessing the safety criticality of driver behavior toward cyclists at intersections

Abstract

Objective: Detailed analyses of car-to-cyclist accidents show that drivers intending to turn right at T-junctions collide more often with cyclists crossing from the right side on the bicycle lane than drivers intending to turn left. This fact has led to numerous studies examining the behavior of drivers turning left and right. However, the most essential question still has not been sufficiently answered: is the behavior of drivers intending to turn right generally more safety critical than the behavior of those intending to turn left? The purpose of this article is to provide a method that allows to determine whether a driver’s behavior toward cyclists can retrospectively be assessed as critical or non-critical.

Methods: Several theoretical considerations enriched by findings of experimental studies were employed to devise a multi-measure method. This method was applied to a dataset containing real-world approaching behavior of 48 drivers turning right and left at four T-junctions with different sight obstructions. For each driver a behavior-specific criticality was defined based on both, their driving and gaze behavior. Moreover, based on the behavior-specific criticality of each driver, the required field of view to see a cyclist from the right was defined and was set into relation with the available field of view of the T-junction.

Results: The results show that only a small portion of the drivers within the dataset would have posed an actual risk to cyclists crossing from the right side. Those situations with a higher safety criticality did not only arise when drivers intended to turn right, but also left.

Conclusion: Therefore, the analysis can only provide an explanation for the higher proportion of accidents between drivers turning right and cyclists crossing from the right side in certain situations. Further research, for example analyses of exposure data regarding the frequency of turning manoeuvers at T-junctions, is needed in order to explain the higher proportion of accidents between drivers turning right and cyclists crossing from the right side.     

Energy planning with decision-making tools: experiences from an energy-planning project

This article presents the evaluation of a pilot project where four decision-making tools were applied in a municipal energy-planning process in a Swedish municipality. The tested tools were citizens' panel, a scenario method, life cycle assessment and qualitative checklists for environmental assessment (EA). The results presented are based on two focus group discussions with the participants from the project: one with the municipal workgroup and one with the researchers that were responsible for the application of the decision-making tools. The results show that energy planning is a process of learning and dialogue, and workshop methodology was found to be favourable for open dialogue. This test also shows that public involvement can contribute to a valuable dialogue in the visionary work and suggestions of actions and strategies. Another conclusion is that energy planning needs to be iterative, even in the scoping. This test also shows that there is a need to develop simplified tools that include EA and a broad systems approach in local energy planning.     

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.     

Can further mitigation of ammonia emissions reduce exceedances of particulate matter air quality standards?

Several studies point out the importance of agricultural emissions to particulate matter (PM) concentrations, and particularly of NH₃ emissions to PM_2.5. Our study used three different chemical transport models (CHIMERE, EMEP and LOTOS-EUROS) to quantify the reductions of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations due to reductions of NH₃ emissions beyond the Gothenburg Protocol (GP), as well as due to the GP alone compared to 2009. Simulations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations using 2009 meteorology were undertaken for five emission scenarios: 2009 emissions (as the reference simulation), GP emissions in 2020, and further 10%, 20% and 30% NH₃ emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP. The modelling results for the scenarios with further 10%, 20% and 30% NH₃ agriculture emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP show that the reduction achieved in PM concentrations is not linear with the emission reductions. In fact, the results from the study show that the impact of ammonia emissions reduction is significantly more efficient when the emission reduction rises. Moreover, based on the evaluation on 2009, the modelling study shows that the expected impact of ammonia emissions on the formation of particulate ammonium was underestimated by all models. This would imply that the role of ammonia on PM concentration and exceedances of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ limit values is likely to be even larger than quantified in this study. This study shows that the implementation of the emission reductions imposed by the revised GP for 2020 will not suffice to achieve compliance with PM limit values everywhere in Europe; hence further European and local measures may be considered. NH₃ emissions from agriculture can be further reduced with the implementation of proven and feasible measures (substitution of fertilizers, improved storage of manure, way fertilizer injections, etc., …), in order to reduce PM concentrations and their impacts on human health across Europe.     

Impacts of climate change on lakes and reservoirs dynamics and restoration policies

Meteorological-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes and their water quality; these impacts can be hydrologic, thermal, hydraulic, chemical, biochemical, or ecological. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (California–Nevada) was investigated here as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within lakes. The already published trends of meteorological variables were used to assess the effects of global warming on Lake Tahoe dynamics. Records from the period 1969–2002 show that Lake Tahoe has became warmer and more stable. A series of simulation years into the future (i.e., 2000–2040) was established using flows, loads, and meteorology data sets for the period 1994–2004. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Possible changes in water quality because of global warming are discussed through inference, although these are not specifically simulated. Many existing problems may be exacerbated due to climate change, yet extreme uncertainty depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change. Therefore, shifts in water quality and quantity due to climate change should be integrated into contemporary planning and management in an adaptive manner, and the research and development of impact assessment methodology should focus on approaches that can handle extreme uncertainty. The general alternatives for lake management due to climate change are discussed. Depending on the specific case, further intensive research is suggested to restore lake water quality.     

Computer-supported visualization of rescue operations

Effective emergency management and response require a thorough understanding of the processes involved in a rescue operation and their interaction. Appropriate methods and tools for computer visualization of rescue operations can greatly facilitate activities such as command and control, system analysis, training, evaluation, and transfer of lessons learned. To this end, we introduce a method for systematic analysis, modeling and visualization of a rescue scenario. Models of rescue scenarios, prepared in advance, serve as the basis for data collection during an operation. The data collected are visualized in a computer tool with several views that can be customized according to the needs of different users. We demonstrate the method by applying it to a rescue operation where a taskforce trains for emergency response to a chemical incident.