MULTICRITERIA EVALUATION IN A POLICY ANALYSIS OF A RHINE ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: As part of a major project to provide the Rhine delta protection from North Sea floods, the Dutch installed sluices at Haringvliet in the late 1960s and converted the Haringvliet-Hollandsch Diep-Biesbosch (HHB) estuary into a tidally-damped, fresh-water system. Two decades later, the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat commissioned a study of alternative policies for managing the sluices and removing contaminated bottom sediments, including policies which would at least partially restore estuarine conditions to the HHB. This paper describes the public policy analysis comprising that study, focusing on the role played by formal mullicriteria evaluation (MCE), including the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Through the tasks of value-tree structuring, impact measurement, and criterion prioritization, the MCE influenced the entire structure of the analysis, became an integral part of it, and, despite initial skepticism among the participants about the utility of multicriteria analysis, was subsequently accepted and viewed favorably by the majority of them.     

Time constraints and multiple choice criteria in the sampling behaviour and mate choice of the fiddler crab,Uca annulipes

Active female sampling occurs in the fiddler crab Uca annulipes. Females sample the burrows of several males before remaining to mate in the burrow of the chosen partner. Females time larval release to coincide with the following nocturnal spring tide and must therefore leave sufficient time for embryonic development after mating. Here we show how this temporal constraint on search time affects female choosiness. We found that, at the start of the sampling period (when time constraints are minimal), females selectively sample the larger males in the population. Towards the end of the sampling period (when the temporal constraints increase the costs of sampling), females are less selective. Furthermore, we suggest that the number of males sampled (and other indices of ‘‘sampling effort’’) may not be reliable indicators of female choosiness and may not reflect the strength of female mating preferences under certain conditions. Burrow quality also emerged as an important criterion in final mate choice. Burrow structure potentially influences reproductive success, and mate acceptance based on burrow structure appears to involve a relatively invariant threshold criterion. Since there is no relationship between male size and burrow quality, females are using at least two independent criteria when choosing potential mates. We envisage mate choice as a two-stage process. First, females select which males to sample based on male size. They then decide whether or not to mate with a male based on burrow features. This sampling process explains how two unrelated variables can both predict male mating success. Received: 23 March 1995/Accepted after revision: 14 January 1996     

我国自然保护区有效管理评价指标研究

本文根据我国自然保护区建设速度较快但管理水平较低的现状，在多年调查研究的基础上，提出制定自然保护区有效管理评价标准的必要性，并详细阐述了在保护区管理条件、管理措施、科研基础和管理成效等四个方面的评价内容，提出１３项评价指标，进而作了详细的评分等级划分，提出一套评价全国自然保护区管理质量的指标体系，为全国自然保护区管理的监督检查提供了一套简便适用、易于操作的评判标准。     

Significance of Sighting Rate in Inferring Extinction and Threat

Abstract:  We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However, comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids ( Paphiopedilum ). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However, such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed.     

Development of methods for establishing nutrient criteria in lakes and reservoirs: A review

Nutrient criteria provide a scientific foundation for the comprehensive evaluation, prevention,control and management of water eutrophication. In this review, the literature was examined to systematically evaluate the benefits, drawbacks, and applications of statistical analysis,paleolimnological reconstruction, stressor-response model, and model inference approaches for nutrient criteria determination. The developments and challenges in the determination of nutrient criteria in lakes and reservoirs are presented. Reference lakes can reflect the original states of lakes, but reference sites are often unavailable. Using the paleolimnological reconstruction method, it is often difficult to reconstruct the historical nutrient conditions of shallow lakes in which the sediments are easily disturbed. The model inference approach requires sufficient data to identify the appropriate equations and characterize a waterbody or group of waterbodies, thereby increasing the difficulty of establishing nutrient criteria. The stressor-response model is a potential development direction for nutrient criteria determination, and the mechanisms of stressor-response models should be studied further. Based on studies of the relationships among water ecological criteria, eutrophication, nutrient criteria and plankton, methods for determining nutrient criteria should be closely integrated with water management requirements.     

污染场地固化/稳定化修复的评价方法与标准

固化/稳定化技术是一项在欧美等国家的污染场地修复中广泛应用的技术.在分析固化/稳定化修复效果常用的浸出试验方法和物理评价方法以及相对应的评价标准的基础上,发现我国固化/稳定化修复效果的评价方法仅有少量振荡浸出试验的方法,还缺少动态浸出试验的评价方法;浸出毒性测试普遍采用硫酸硝酸法浸出评估,忽略了As、Cr(Ⅵ)等含氧阴离子在中性至弱碱性pH下溶解度达到最大的情况;固化/稳定化修复效果的评价标准则主要借鉴固废毒性鉴别与管理方法,但该方法未规定污染土壤资源化再利用时的评价依据;另外,污染土壤和固体废物的自身特性也有一定的差异.提出了基于我国国情的污染土壤固化/稳定化浸出测试和评价标准体系:当污染土壤固化/稳定化后采用卫生填埋或一般工业固体废物贮存、处置场处置时,可参考固体废物填埋处置时的评价方法与标准;当污染土壤固化/稳定化后原址填埋时,则应增加绕流浸出方法或穿透浸出试验方法,其评价标准可参考GB/T 14848—1993《地下水质量标准》或根据关注点浓度的要求进行风险评估推算确定;当污染土壤固化/稳定化后再利用时,需根据再利用的具体情景选择相应的评价方法与标准.      

Effect of Information Availability on Assessment and Designation of Species at Risk

Abstract: Information required to evaluate the extent to which species are at risk of extinction is usually limited and characterized as highly uncertain. In this context, we define information availability as the presence or absence of information used to determine the value of an ecological variable. We examined which of three hypothetical approaches best matched how levels of risk are assigned to species: (1) precautionary approach in which analysts designate levels of risk regardless of the amount of information available, (2) worst‐case approach in which analysts assign the maximum level of risk possible from the criteria, and (3) insurance approach in which analysts assign poorly known species to a high‐risk category when little information is available. We used the quantitative assessment criteria of the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) as a case study. We created a binary (0/1) matrix of all 2.4192 × 10⁷ logical combinations of available information for the 14 ecological variables included in the quantitative criteria. We processed each combination of information availability represented in the matrix with a computer algorithm designed to emulate COSEWIC decision‐making rules. Low information availability was associated with a relatively high frequency of not being able to assign a candidate taxon to a risk category, which does not follow the precautionary principle. Information availability and the level of risk assigned to species were directly related, which is associated with the worst‐case approach, and counter to the insurance approach. Our results suggest that information availability can have a major effect on the level of risk assigned to a species. We recommend a conscious determination of whether such effects are desired, and we recommend the development of methods to explicitly characterize and incorporate information availability and other sources of uncertainty in decision‐making processes.     

Assessing the Effects of Non-Point Source Pollution on American Samoa’s Coral Reef Communities

Surveys were completed on Tutuila Island, American Samoa, to characterize reef development and assess the impacts of non-point source pollution on adjacent coral reefs at six sites. Multivariate analyses of benthic and coral community data found similar modern reef development at three locations; Aoa, Alofau, and Leone. These sites are situated in isolated bays with gentle sloping foundations. Aoa reefs had the highest estimates of crustose coralline algae cover and coral species richness, while Leone and Alofau showed high abundances of macroalgae and Porites corals. Aoa has the largest reef flat between watershed discharge and the reef slope, and the lowest human population density. Masefau and Fagaalu have a different geomorphology consisting of cemented staghorn coral fragments and steep slopes, however, benthic and coral communities were not similar. Benthic data suggest Fagaalu is heavily impacted compared with all other sites. Reef communities were assessed as bio-criteria indicators for waterbody health, using the EPA aquatic life use support designations of (1) fully supportive, (2) partially supportive, and (3) non-supportive for aquatic life. All sites resulted in a partially supportive ranking except Fagaalu, which was non-supportive. The results of this rapid assessment based upon relative benthic community measures are less desirable than long-term dataset analyses from monitoring programs, however it fills an important role for regulatory agencies required to report annual waterbody assessments. Future monitoring sites should be established to increase the number of replicates within each geological and physical setting to allow for meaningful comparisons along a gradient of hypothesized pollution levels.     

A review of approaches for the long-term management of municipal solid waste landfills

After closure, municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills must be managed and controlled to avoid adverse effects on human health and the environment (HHE). Aftercare (or post-closure care) can be brought to an end when the authorities consider the landfill to no longer pose a threat to HHE. Different approaches have been suggested for long-term landfill management and evaluation of aftercare completion. In this paper, research on aftercare and its completion is analyzed and regulatory approaches for the completion of landfill aftercare are reviewed. Approaches to aftercare could be categorized as (i) target values, (ii) impact/risk assessment, and (iii) performance based. Comparison of these approaches illustrates that each has limitations and strengths. While target values are typically used as screening indicators to be complemented with site-specific assessments, impact/risk assessment approaches address the core issue about aftercare completion, but face large uncertainties and require a high level of expertise. A performance-based approach allows for the combination of target values and impact/risk assessments in a consistent evaluation framework with the aim of sequentially reducing aftercare intensity and, ultimately, leading to the completion of aftercare. At a regulatory level, simple qualitative criteria are typically used as the primary basis for defining completion of aftercare, most likely due to the complexity of developing rigorous evaluation methodologies. This paper argues that development of transparent and consistent regulatory procedures represents the basis for defining the desired state of a landfill at the end of aftercare and for reducing uncertainty about the intensity and duration of aftercare. In this context, recently presented technical guidelines and the ongoing debate with respect to their regulatory acceptance are a valuable step towards developing strategies for the cost-effective protection of HHE at closed MSW landfills. To assess the practicality of evaluation methodologies for aftercare, well-documented case studies including regulatory review and acceptance are needed.     

基于能值方法的甘薯燃料乙醇产业生态系统分析

发展燃料乙醇已成为替代能源战略下的成熟模式,但传统燃料乙醇生产的污染问题严重影响了燃料乙醇的生存和发展,因此建立以燃料乙醇生产为核心企业,包括由原料种植者、乙醇生产者、分解者、资源回收利用者等一系列利益相关者组成的产业生态系统,已成为燃料乙醇可持续发展的有效途径. 根据燃料乙醇生产过程中对废物处理和资源化利用情况,将其划分成传统生产方案(方案Ⅰ)、废物处理生产方案(方案Ⅱ)和产业生态系统方案(方案Ⅲ),并采用改进后的能值分析方法及指标体系对3种生产方案进行比较分析. 结果表明:与方案Ⅰ相比,通过废物处理和中水回用,方案Ⅱ的ε_EYR(能值产出率)提高了59.37%,ε_ELR(环境负荷率)降低了75.39%;延长产业链,增加循环利用方式后,方案Ⅲ比方案Ⅰ的ε_EYR提高了86.19%,ε_ELR降低了82.98%. 3种生产方案的可持续发展能力为方案Ⅰ<方案Ⅱ<方案Ⅲ.