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41.
Natural resource managers often rely on the advice of specialists to aid decision making. However, disagreement among these specialists about the relative value of particular management objectives or the risks associated with implementing certain management strategies may complicate the decision effort. Multiattribute utility analysis can facilitate decision making by indicating how attributes of a problem are weighed by individual specialists. This information can then be used to outline bands of potential problem solutions that are acceptable to the advising group and may allow management to further its own objectives (possibly increased efficiency).An example is presented that relates to fire management planning efforts on national forests. Multiattribute utility functions developed from a survey of fire management professionals are used to identify utility-maximizing fire management strategies based on each strategy's level of economic efficiency and risk. Bands of utility-indifferent potential solutions are outlined based on measures of group consensus. It is pointed out that a subset of these would further management's goal (increased efficiency) without significantly altering the value assigned to the risk attribute by the specialists. Finally, the robustness of the technique is discussed with particular reference to environmental management problems and the role that proxy information often plays in decision making. 相似文献
42.
We develop an understanding of local governmental efforts to address earthquake risks. Our data for a sample of California
and Washington cities' risk-reduction efforts sort into two different clusters of leading jurisdictions as contrasted with
a cluster of lagging jurisdictions. We explain differences among the three categories of cities in terms of different political-economic
factors. Local governmental willingness and ability to undertake risk-reduction programs have more to do with local political
demands and community resources than with objective risk or previous earthquake experience. State mandates have a selective
impact on local risk-reduction efforts. The principal policy lessons concern the need to address gaps in local risk-reduction
efforts through more careful targeting of federal and state earthquake programs and by including stronger teeth within state
mandates. 相似文献
43.
Treatment of risk in environmental impact assessment 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
Glenn W. Suter II Lawrence W. Barnthouse Robert V. O'Neill 《Environmental management》1987,11(3):295-303
Risk assessment and environmental impact assessment have developed as separate traditions. While environmental impact assessment is a broad field that includes all activities that attempt to analyze and evaluate the effects of human and related actions on the environment, risk assessment has been concerned with the relatively well-defined regulatory problems and employs formal quantitative analysis of the probability of specific undesired events, such as cancer. Risk analytic approaches, particularly the explicit treatment of uncertainty, can significantly contribute to environmental assessments. This article discusses the type and sources of uncertainty in environmental assessments, techniques for their quantification, and ways to use uncertainty estimates to calculate probabilities of effects or probabilities of exceeding environmental standards and to determine the need for mitigation or additional research.This article was presented at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Task Force Meeting on Risk and Policy Analysis under Conditions of Uncertainty, Laxenburg, Austria, November 1985. 相似文献
44.
Marvin Waterstone 《Environmental management》1987,11(6):793-804
One major source of water-related health problems is the improper disposal of toxic substances in the environment. Toxic materials leaching from unregulated and unlined pits, ponds, lagoons, and landfills have created a widespread environmental nightmare in the United States and many other parts of the world. At present, there are two major and interrelated components of this problem in the United States. The first is the issue of cleaning up abandoned disposal sites that pose actual or potential threats to water supplies. The second aspect of the problem concerns the necessity of siting proper management, treatment, or disposal facilities in the future. Priorities must be set to allow efficient, effective, and equitable allocation of the scarce resources that are available for accomplishing these tasks.This article examines a number of the issues involved in setting these priorities, and presents the results obtained from a study of risk estimation and evaluation in the context of groundwater contamination by toxic substances. The article introduces a new concept of risk estimation, which is shown to produce more accurate and credible risk analyses. Finally, the relationships between risk credibility and public perceptions of procedural fairness and equity are examined as these factors bear on the institutional aspects of implementing policies for site cleanup and/or facility siting. 相似文献
45.
金磊 《中国安全科学学报》1995,5(2):19-24
阐述建立风险学的重要性,探讨了开展安全减灾风险评价与管理的关键问题。概要介绍国内外风险水平的表征、识别方法及指标体系,并提出风险管理的基本原则。引入风险地图、危机管理、风险数学、应急与预警等现代概念及方法,基本反映了在瑞典召开的“新区开发中的风险科学与管理”国际会议的内容。 相似文献
46.
金磊 《中国安全科学学报》1995,(2)
阐述建立风险学的重要性,探讨了开展安全减灾风险评价与管理的关键问题。概要介绍国内外风险水平的表征、识别方法及指标体系,并提出风险管理的基本原则。引入风险地图、危机管理、风险数学、应急与预警等现代概念及方法,基本反映了在瑞典召开的“新区开发中的风险科学与管理”国际会议的内容。 相似文献
47.
Venkateswara R. Rao 《Environmental management》1995,19(3):313-320
Risk management practices under the current environmental regulations is a long, complex process that considers scientific,
technologic, and management factors to develop various regulatory standards and pollution control measures. Using the mandatory
enforcement approach, sometimes referred to as “command-and-control”, a set of preliminary environmental goals, such as better
air and water qualities, were achieved. However, the information-intensive nature of the risk management process and the lack
of flexibility in conventional regulatory methods to changing economic and technologic realities of the decade has created
interest among risk managers to examine some innovative management approaches. Above all, environmental problems of a global
scale require novel management methods while striving to achieve the desired environmental goals.
As the principal analytical tool in risk management, quantitative risk assessment exerts considerable influence on the risk
management process. Therefore, advances in risk management are closely associated with scientific developments that enhance
the risk assessment process, particularly those efforts aimed at improving human exposure and toxicity assessments. Market
incentives, information dissemination, creative enforcement practices, and interagency and intergovernmental interactions
were identified as the key elements of innovative environmental risk management practices. This paper will present an overview
of the emerging innovative risk management approaches. 相似文献
48.
城市防洪工程风险决策方法 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
本文着重讨论了与城市防洪工程决策制定密切相关的几个问题:①城市防洪工程设计标准的确定;②现有防洪工程的性能评估,③最优防洪工程对策的确定等,并在风险分析的基础上,给出了解决上述问题的方法。所得结论可为城市防洪工程决策的制定提供较为科学的理论依据。 相似文献
49.
G. Grasa V. Navarro O. Rubio J. A. Pea J. Santamaria 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2002,15(6):525-530
Opinion polls were conducted to assess the level of risk perceived by the citizens in communities of different sizes where chemical industries were present. The aim of the study was to relate the risk perceived to variables such as the nature of risks, the specific information received regarding the industrial activity and the economic impact of this activity in the community. 相似文献
50.
Russell J. deLucia 《Natural resources forum》2000,24(4):325-335
This article presents lessons from experience pertinent to implementing small-scale natural resource and related investment projects in developing countries. It outlines ideas for intervention and innovation to foster such investments. Particular emphasis is placed on private-sector participation in these investments. Following a brief presentation of the economic development and other arguments that support intervention and innovation in support of such small-scale natural resource investments, the article discusses many of the lessons learned from experience. These lessons reinforce those touched upon in the investment-specific discussions in the previous articles. The experience and associated lessons that are examined include experiences in both developing and developed countries and encompass not just lessons from natural resource investments, but also small-scale investments in other sectors. Financing and other innovations which facilitate meeting the challenges are drawn from relevant experience where barriers to investment have been surmounted. Options for programme and project interventions to increase market penetration of small-scale investments and achieve the associated development linkages and synergies are suggested. These suggestions are aimed especially at governments and bilateral and multilateral development finance and development assistance entities. It is those players who might support such interventions in collaboration with local financial institutions and other market players. 相似文献