When and how to use Q methodology to understand perspectives in conservation research

Understanding human perspectives is critical in a range of conservation contexts, for example, in overcoming conflicts or developing projects that are acceptable to relevant stakeholders. The Q methodology is a unique semiquantitative technique used to explore human perspectives. It has been applied for decades in other disciplines and recently gained traction in conservation. This paper helps researchers assess when Q is useful for a given conservation question and what its use involves. To do so, we explained the steps necessary to conduct a Q study, from the research design to the interpretation of results. We provided recommendations to minimize biases in conducting a Q study, which can affect mostly when designing the study and collecting the data. We conducted a structured literature review of 52 studies to examine in what empirical conservation contexts Q has been used. Most studies were subnational or national cases, but some also address multinational or global questions. We found that Q has been applied to 4 broad types of conservation goals: addressing conflict, devising management alternatives, understanding policy acceptability, and critically reflecting on the values that implicitly influence research and practice. Through these applications, researchers found hidden views, understood opinions in depth and discovered points of consensus that facilitated unlocking difficult disagreements. The Q methodology has a clear procedure but is also flexible, allowing researchers explore long‐term views, or views about items other than statements, such as landscape images. We also found some inconsistencies in applying and, mainly, in reporting Q studies, whereby it was not possible to fully understand how the research was conducted or why some atypical research decisions had been taken in some studies. Accordingly, we suggest a reporting checklist.     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.     

Investigation of multiple domino scenarios caused by fragments

A model of multiple domino scenarios and the risk of the domino effect, which is a sequential chain escalating from the primary unit to the last unit, is presented in this paper. The trajectories of fragments from all units, the ground distribution of projectiles, and the risk of the sequential chain of the domino effect were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. The results showed that the range affected by the fragments from each tank included the other tanks, meaning that fragments from one tank could hit the other tanks and cause multiple accidents, and that the sequential chain of the domino effect could indeed happen. The distributions of ground impacts showed that tank fragments were projected over long distances, up to 1200 m from the source. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy at ground impact for tank fragments was also obtained. Moreover, the magnitudes of the probabilities of the primary, secondary, third, and fourth accidents in the domino chain were respectively about 10⁻⁷, 10⁻¹¹, 10⁻¹⁵, and 10⁻¹⁹. These results showed that for neighboring domino effect units in the same accident chain, the risk of the most recent domino effect was 10⁴ times that of the following domino effect.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.     

协同治理理论视角下连云港湾长制试点存在的问题及对策

近岸海域环境综合治理是典型的公共产品和公共服务,需要多个主体协同治理。连云港湾长制已实施两年多,虽取得了一定成效,但从协同治理理论来看,仍存在治理主体相对单一、公众参与不足问题。因此,今后应以协同治理理论为指导,形成多元的治理主体,树立各个治理主体的权威性,加强各治理主体的协同性,充分发挥各治理主体的积极性,共同推进湾长制的实施。     

支撑环境污染第三方治理的标准体系构建研究

采用系统论及系统工程方法论,结合我国环境污染治理标准制定情况,构建了科学合理的支撑环境污染第三方治理的标准体系。标准体系包含4个子体系及22个专业领域,体系的建立可为形成环境污染第三方治理相关的共性技术、管理与服务标准提供理论参考。通过标准梳理工作,确定未来迫切需要制定一整套环境污染第三方治理绩效评价的相关标准。该研究成果能够强化环境污染第三方治理效果,完善环境污染第三方治理机制体制,对规范环境污染第三方治理技术与服务市场化应用具有一定的参考价值。     

油库项目环境风险评价案例分析

根据《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》,对油库项目环评中的环境风险因子进行识别,并分析其风险源项。采用导则推荐的多烟团模式计算原油储罐泄漏引发池火事故后,对周围环境影响的范围和程度。因此对油库项目进行环境风险评价时,应重视油库泄漏事故对环境的影响。     

废旧轮胎再制造过程的环境污染及防治研究

随着汽车和轮胎行业的迅速发展,由此产生的废旧轮胎也逐年增加。废旧轮胎再利用技术既可解决橡胶资源短缺问题,又能消除黑色污染,是循环经济的重要环节,在推广这一技术的同时,应注意其伴生的环境污染。再利用生产主要分为清洗、打磨、粘中垫胶、粘预硫化胎面、低温硫化等步骤。此过程将产生粉尘、非甲烷总烃废气、橡胶颗粒以及清洗废水等污染物。应对这些污染物采取有效的治理措施,使其满足达标排放和无害化的要求,以达到经济利益和环境保护的双赢。     

漓江沉积柱重金属垂向分布特征及污染评价

对桂林漓江3个采样点沉积柱状沉积物中主要重金属元素(Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn、Pb、As和Ni)的垂向分布进行了测定。结果表明:7种重金属元素具有相似的垂向变化特征;横向上表现为靠近市区的含量高远离,市区的含量低。地积累指数评价结果显示,远离市区的沉积柱7种金属污染程度较轻,仅有Cd和Ni属于无～中污染程度。临近市区的沉积柱形成污染的元素为Cd、Cu、Zn、Pb和As,主要集中在底层和次表层。