Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District

Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources.     

新区域主义视角下的管治尺度构建——以南京都市圈建设为例

在新区域主义的理论视角下,对南京都市圈的新区域实体和区域管治进行研究,指出南京都市圈是新区域主义在我国的一种表现形式。研究表明：①南京都市圈建设是从政府到管治过程,因为在决策中引入了非政府部门和私营部门的参与者;②南京都市圈建设也涉及到区域身份与发展愿景的构建,这是区域协调的起点;③在旅游和引资促销,以及交通网络建设上,南京都市圈内的城市合作不断加强。此外,南京都市圈的新区域主义不同于西方的市场主导的新区域主义。南京都市圈的新区域主义是由政府主导的,并有企业和非政府机构参与的新区域主义。研究指出,南京都市圈是在既有区域制度和政治地理上出现的新管治尺度,是一种新的区域管治模式。南京都市圈建设的有益经验将为和谐规划提供一些启迪。     

Hg concentrations and related risk assessment in coral reef crustaceans, molluscs and fish from New Caledonia

There is a dramatic lack of data on Hg levels in marine organisms from tropical areas, and in particular from New Caledonia. For the first time, this study reports the total Hg concentrations in the tissues of several marine taxa from the New Caledonian lagoon. Seafood from both wild and farmed populations was considered. Hg concentrations varied over three orders of magnitudes according to factors including species, age (size/weight), trophic level, lifestyle and geographical origin. Taking into account the edible tissues, estimations of the amount of flesh that should be consumed by a 60-kg person to reach the Hg Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake (PTWI) reveal acceptable risk for Human health in general. However, a risk was clearly identified in one site of the lagoon (i.e. Grande Rade) where high Hg concentrations were measured. These concentrations were higher than values reported in the current literature.     

The consequences of failure should be considered in siting geologic carbon sequestration projects

Geologic carbon sequestration is the injection of anthropogenic CO₂ into deep geologic formations where the CO₂ is intended to remain indefinitely. If successfully implemented, geologic carbon sequestration will have little or no impact on terrestrial ecosystems aside from the mitigation of climate change. However, failure of a geologic carbon sequestration site, such as large-scale leakage of CO₂ into a potable groundwater aquifer, could cause impacts that would require costly remediation measures. Governments are attempting to develop regulations for permitting geologic carbon sequestration sites to ensure their safety and effectiveness. At present, these regulations focus largely on decreasing the probability of failure. In this paper we propose that regulations for the siting of early geologic carbon sequestration projects should emphasize limiting the consequences of failure because consequences are easier to quantify than failure probability.     

A survey on the public perception of CCS in France

An awareness and opinion survey on carbon capture and storage (CCS) was conducted on a representative sample of French residents aged 15 years and above. About 6% of respondents were able to provide a satisfactory definition of the technology. The key question about ‘approval of or opposition to’ the use of CCS in France was asked twice, first after presenting the technology, then after explaining its potential adverse consequences. The approval rates, which were 59% and 38%, respectively, show that there is no a priori rejection of the technology. The sample was split in two to test for a semantic effect: half of the questionnaires used “Stockage” (English: storage), the other half “Sequestration”. Manipulating the vocabulary had no statistically significant effect on approval rates. Stockage is more meaningful, but does not convey the idea of permanent monitoring.     

Risk assessment tools incorporating human error probabilities in the Japanese small-sized establishment

Although it has been estimated that as many as 80% of all occupational accidents have human errors as a cause, no risk assessment tools incorporating human-related elements have been developed for small companies. Human error probability (HEP) and human error analysis (HEA) have been used for large-scale, safety-critical industries for last three decades, but these tools are not suitable for smaller, more general industries that comprise the majority of accident settings.Here, we describe and verify a risk assessment tool that includes human-related elements for small companies. The tool expands on traditional risk assessment methods, such as matrix, risk graph and numerical scoring method, by adding human-related elements. The tool is easy-to-use in occupational environments, and includes assessments of human behavior and potentially outdated machinery at work place.     

Pilot sample risk analysis for underground coal mine fires and explosions using MSHA citation data

After three decades of sustained continuous improvement of mine safety performances in the US, mine disasters in 2006 and 2007 compromised an excellent record and presented new challenges and vulnerabilities for the underground coal mining industry. In the aftermath of the incidents, formal investigations and new scrutiny of mine safety by the US Congress and expert study groups followed. The US Congress passed the Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act of 2006 (MINER Act), which mandated new laws to address the issues, including those related to mine fires and explosions from which miners must be protected. The National Mining Association-sponsored Mine Safety Technology and Training Commission report highlighted the role of risk analysis and management in identifying and controlling major hazards, such as fires and explosions. In this paper an approach is given for analyzing the risks for fires and explosions based on the Mine Safety and Health Administration citation database. Using 2006 citation data and focusing on subsystem failures, the methodology is applied to a database for a pilot sample of underground coal mines stratified by mine size and state.     

Process design optimization and risk analysis

Hazard identification and risk assessment are key aspects in process plant design. They are often applied in the final stages of the process at whatever the cost, unless financial constraints are imposed. However, a much better solution would be to introduce risk analysis earlier by including it in earlier stages of the design process, such as when the cost of a plant and the cost of any accidents that may occur are estimated. In this paper, an optimization methodology is proposed, in which both cost and risk (with a deterministic approach) are taken into account, to improve on the current situation. If a decision variable is chosen, an objective function will be established that makes it possible to analyze variations in overall costs, including the cost of the investment and the cost of accidents. This leads to an optimum situation in which costs are kept to a minimum. Of course, this optimization is subject to constraints, the greatest of which is the fact that risk must not exceed tolerated threshold levels. The procedure is explained and two examples, one involving a toxic release and the other a BLEVE/fireball, are used to illustrate it.