THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES FOR WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLORADO AND SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASINS1

ABSTRACT: A wide variety of regional assessments of the water-related impacts of climatic change have been done over the past two decades, using different methods, approaches, climate models, and assumptions. As part of the Water Sector research for the National Assessment of the Implications of Climatic Variability and Change for the United States, several major summaries have been prepared, looking at the differences and similarities in results among regional research projects. Two such summaries are presented here, for the Colorado River Basin and the Sacramento River Basin. Both of these watersheds are vitally important to the social, economic, and ecological character of their regions; both are large snowmelt-driven basins; both have extensive and complex water management systems in place; and both have had numerous, independent studies done on them. This review analyzes the models, methods, climate assumptions, and conclusions from these studies, and places them in the context of the new climate scenarios developed for the National Assessment. Some significant and consistent impacts have been identified for these basins, across a wide range of potential climate changes. Among the most important is the shift in the timing of runoff that results from changes in snowfall and snowmelt dynamics. This shift has been seen in every regional result across these two basins despite differences in models and climate change assumptions. The implications of these impacts for water management, planning, and policy are discussed.     

石油化工项目环境风险评价实例分析

环境风险评价是石油化工项目环境影响评价的一项重要内容。笔者以某拟建沥青厂为例,利用有关事故统计资料类比分析和世界银行推荐的爆炸危害关系式,对石油化工项目环境风险半定量评价进行了初步探讨。结果表明,该厂发生泄漏事故不会波及外环境,爆炸事故将造成厂区严重破坏并对局地大气环境产生一定影响。      

Risk assessment method of polyethylene dust explosion based on explosion parameters

The explosion characteristic parameters of polyethylene dust were systematically investigated. The variations in the maximum explosion pressure (P_max), explosion index (K_st), minimum ignition energy (MIE), minimum ignition temperature (MIT), and minimum explosion concentration (MEC) of dust samples with different particle sizes were obtained. Using experimental data, a two-dimensional matrix analysis method was applied to classify the dust explosion severity based on P_max and K_st. Then, a three-dimensional matrix was used to categorize the dust explosion sensitivity based on three factors: MIE, MIT, and MEC. Finally, a two-dimensional matrix model of dust explosion risk assessment was established considering the severity and sensitivity. The model was used to evaluate the explosion risk of polyethylene dust samples with different particle sizes. It was found that the risk level of dust explosion increased with decreasing particle size, which was consistent with the actual results. The risk assessment method can provide a scientific basis for dust explosion prevention in the production of polyethylene.     

A COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY PROTECTION IN THE CATAWBA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The primary objective of this study was to perform a cost‐benefit analysis of maintaining the current level of water quality in the Catawba River basin. Economic benefits were estimated using a stated preference survey method designed to value respondents' willingness to pay for a management plan to protect water quality in the Catawba basin over time. From the surveys conducted with 1,085 area residents, we calculated an annual mean willingness to pay of $139 for the management plan, or more than $75.4 million for all taxpayers in the area. Over the five‐year time horizon in which respondents were asked to pay for the management plan, this resulted in a total economic benefit of $340.1 million. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used to estimate the amount of management activities needed to protect the current level of water quality in the basin over time. Based on the model results, the total cost of the management plan was calculated to be $244.8 million over a ten‐year period. The resulting cost‐benefit analysis indicated that the potential benefits of this management plan would outweigh the costs by more than $95 million.     

International experience of green development in Western China: an overall review of policy and practice

Green development emphasizes co-development between economic and environmental dimensions, and is a people-centered sustainable development approach. Western China demands green development, and international experience could provide necessary, unique and important help and support for Western China to achieve its green development goals. This paper has made a comprehensive overall review and analysis of international experience in green development policy and its implementation, in particular, OECD countries’ (mostly Australia and Canada) experience have been analyzed following the major policy foci defined by the Task Force on Strategy and Policies on Environment and Development in Western China initiated by China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED). Data and information were gathered from the field surveys and investigations, expert meetings, as well as literature review. The main sessions include policy framework and road map establishment, implementation and performance assessment, co-development between economic development and environmental protection, as well as green employment and poverty alleviation. The paper has addressed five policy considerations for the future promotion of green development in Western China.     

节能环保产业政策工具评述与展望

节能环保产业是打赢污染防治攻坚战的重要支撑,也是推动经济发展的新兴绿色动能。本文利用瓦当设计的政策工具三分法,对当前节能环保产业政策工具进行了分类研究。当前,影响节能环保产业政策的工具主要包括管制型工具、经济型工具、信息型工具三个类型。管制型工具包括指标控制、强制性标准和监督考核等;经济型工具包括财政支持、税收优惠、价格政策、金融政策等;信息型工具包括技术推广机制、产品推广机制等。尽管我国已经初步建立了政策支持体系,但当前政策工具仍然存在一系列不足,管制型工具、经济型工具、信息型工具都有较大的改进调整空间,应当进一步形成规范、合理的管制型制度,以普惠为主而非补助为主的经济型制度,以提供信息服务为主的信息型制度,并以此促进节能环保产业健康、有序发展。     

Associations between driver training, determinants of risky driving behaviour and crash involvement

The core aim of the study is to examine associations between formal and informal practical driver training as well as driving experience on the one hand and young drivers’ safety attitudes, self-assessment of driving ability and self-reported driver behaviour on the other hand. An additional aim is to examine the associations between attitudes, self-assessment and behaviour on the one hand and crash involvement on the other hand. The results are based on a self-completion questionnaire survey conducted among a representative sample of Norwegian drivers aged 18–20 years (n = 1419). The results showed that there were small yet significant associations between driver training, on the one hand and traffic safety attitudes and risky driving behaviour on the other hand. The amount of formal driver training was negatively associated with the respondents’ evaluation of their driving skills; although the amount of lay instruction was positively associated with such self-evaluation. The results also showed that attitudes as well as self-assessment of driving ability were significantly associated with self-reported risk behaviour. This was especially true for attitudes related to rule violations. There was a strong association between crash involvement and exposure (measured as months holding a licence). Young novice drivers’ crash involvement seems stronger associated with driving skills (manifested as self-assessment of driving ability) than safety attitudes and self-reported driver behaviour. The consequences of the results for driver training and accident prevention are discussed.     

基于体制视角的煤矿矿难成因及对策研究

对国内外煤矿安全事故的成因进行回顾。通过理论与实践研究发现,影响我国煤矿矿难发生的各项因素只是表象,其更深层次的原因是体制层面的问题。分别从计划经济体制、市场经济体制以及双重体制角度对我国煤矿矿难的成因进行分析,指出计划经济体制导致了煤矿企业积极性不高和安全投入不足;以市场资源配置和利益驱动为导向的市场经济体制使得煤矿企业人才严重缺乏、超能力生产严重、安全管理不严和违规操作频发;双重经济体制共同作用引致了我国煤矿行业的监管不力。针对体制对我国煤矿带来的问题,分别从管理机制、安全投入、福利待遇和监管体制等方面给出治理煤矿矿难的政策建议和意见。     

中国安全生产政策变迁及其内在逻辑——基于间断均衡模型的实证分析*

为全面发挥安全生产政策对推进安全生产治理体系与治理能力现代化的保障作用,基于间断均衡模型审视改革开放以来我国安全生产政策变迁过程,并提出将其划分为3个均衡期和2个间断期。研究结果表明:在政策目标的转换下,我国安全生产政策变迁先后历经“生产安全”、“安全发展”与“总体安全”3个阶段的深刻调整。决策主体注意力分配、焦点事件持续冲击与地方政府创新供给利用改变政策场域而影响安全生产政策变迁,分别呈现“原动力”、“驱动力”与“拉动力”的作用机制,具有典型的中国情境。研究结果可为廓清中国安全生产政策变迁机制提供理论思考。     

不同目标导向性规划环境影响评价方法浅析

规划环境影响评价是环境影响评价在规划层次的应用,是对规划或计划及其替代方案的环境影响进行规范、系统、综合的评价过程.就政策导向性和项目导向性规划,从规划环评的方法与程序方面进行了比较、分析,并结合嘉兴滨海新区和巢湖皖维化工基地两个规划环评实例进行了案例研究.