Highlights of LNG risk technology

The authors have recently undertaken a major review of LNG consequence modeling, compiling a wide range of historical information with more recent experiments and modeling approaches in a book entitled “LNG Risk-Based Safety: Modeling and Consequence Analysis”. All the main consequence routes were reviewed – discharge, evaporation, pool and jet fire, vapor cloud explosions, rollover, and Rapid Phase Transitions (RPT’s). In the book, experimental data bases are assembled for tests on pool spread and evaporation, burn rates, dispersion, fire and radiation and effects on personnel and structures. The current paper presents selected highlights of interest: lessons learned from historical development and experience, comparison of predictions by various models, varying mechanisms for LNG spread of water, a modeling protocol to enable acceptance of newer models, and unresolved technical issues such as cascading failures, fire engulfment of a carrier, the circumstances for a possible LNG BLEVE, and accelerated evaporation by LNG penetration into water.     

Risk reduction concept to provide design criteria for Emergency Systems for onshore LNG plants

The functional safety requirement is widely applied in the process plant industry in accordance with the international standards, such as IEC and ISA. The requirement is defined as safety integrity level (SIL) based on the risk reduction concept for protection layers, from original process risk to tolerable risk level. Although the standards specify both, the Prevention System and the Emergency System, as level of protection layers, the standards specify in detail only the use of the Prevention System (i.e., Safety Instrumented System (SIS)). The safety integrity level is not commonly allocated to the Emergency System (e.g., Fire and Gas System, Emergency Shutdown System and Emergency Depressuring System). This is because the required risk reduction can be normally achieved by only the Prevention System (i.e., SIS and Pressure Safety Valve (PSV)). Further, the risk reduction level for the Emergency System is very difficult to be quantified by the actual SIL application (i.e., evaluated based on the single accident scenario, such as an accident from process control deviation), since the escalation scenarios after Loss of Containment (LOC) greatly vary depending on the plant design and equipment. Consequently, there are no clear criteria for evaluating the Emergency System design. This paper aims to provide the functional safety requirement (i.e., required risk reduction level based on IEC 61508 and 61511) as design criteria for the Emergency System.In order to provide clear criteria for the Emergency System evaluation, a risk reduction concept integrated with public’s perception of acceptable risk criteria is proposed and is applied to identify the required safety integrity level for the Emergency System design. Further, to verify the safety integrity levels for the Emergency Systems, the probabilistic model of the Emergency Systems was established considering each Emergency System (e.g., Fire and Gas System, Emergency Shutdown System and Emergency Depressuring System) relation as the Overall Emergency System. This is because the Overall Emergency System can achieve its goal by the combined action of each individual system, including inherent safe design, such as separation distance.The proposed approach applicability was verified by conducting a case study using actual onshore Liquefied Natural Gas Plant data. Further, the design criteria for Emergency Systems for LNG plants are also evaluated by sensitivity analysis.     

Risk analysis and assessment methodologies in the work sites: On a review, classification and comparative study of the scientific literature of the period 2000-2009

The objective of this work is to determine and study, analyze and elaborate, classify and categorize the main risk analysis and risk-assessment methods and techniques by reviewing the scientific literature. The paper consists of two parts: a) the investigation, presentation and elaboration of the main risk-assessment methodologies and b) the statistical analysis, classification, and comparative study of the corresponding scientific papers published by six representative scientific journals of Elsevier B.V. covering the decade 2000-2009. The scientific literature reviewing showed that the risk analysis and assessment techniques are classified into three main categories: (a) the qualitative, (b) the quantitative, and (c) the hybrid techniques (qualitative-quantitative, semi-quantitative). The qualitative techniques are based both on analytical estimation processes, and on the safety managers-engineers ability. According to quantitative techniques, the risk can be considered as a quantity, which can be estimated and expressed by a mathematical relation, under the help of real accidents’ data recorded in a work site. The hybrid techniques, present a great complexity due to their ad hoc character that prevents a wide spreading. The statistical analysis shows that the quantitative methods present the highest relative frequency (65.63%) while the qualitative a lower one (27.68%). Furthermore the hybrid methods remain constantly at a very low level (6.70%) during the entire processing period.     

Investigation of the propensity of sulfide concentrates to spontaneous combustion in storage

Spontaneous combustion of sulfide concentrates can cause many serious problems during storage. In this study, two representative samples (sulfur-rich sulfide concentrate and iron-rich sulfide concentrate) were investigated for the self-heating behavior using the crossing-point temperature (CPT) method. The corresponding apparent activation energies were determined, 13.7366 kJ/mol for iron-rich sulfide concentrate and 21.3817 kJ/mol for sulfur-rich sulfide concentrate. Furthermore, the surface temperatures of sulfide concentrate stockpiles in different seasons were also measured by a thermal image apparatus. It was found the temperature for iron-rich sulfide concentrate stockpile was higher than that for rich-sulfur sulfide concentrate stockpile. These research results show iron-rich sulfide concentrate exhibits stronger propensity to spontaneous combustion than sulfur-rich sulfide concentrate. Particular attention should be paid to the fire hazard of iron-rich sulfide concentrate in daily safety check work. The combination of the CPT method with the infrared thermal image measurement provides a new approach for the risk assessment on the propensity of sulfide concentrates to spontaneous combustion during the production, storage and transportation. The useful data and experience achieved in this investigation can be also referenced in similar cases later.     

On the development of a new hybrid risk assessment process using occupational accidents’ data: Application on the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

The occupational accidents have a major impact upon human integrity and also bring about high costs for the social health and insurance system of a country. In addition, risk analysis is an essential process for the safety policy of a company, having as main aim the effacement of any potential of damage in a productive procedure, while the quantified risk evaluation is the most crucial part of the whole procedure of assessing hazards in the work. The main goal of this study is double: a) the development and presentation of a new hybrid risk assessment process (HRAP) and b) the application of HRAP in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) (the unique electric power provider and the largest industry in Greece), by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 12-year period of 1993-2004. The new process consists of four distinct phases a) the hazard sources’ identification phase, b) the risk consideration phase, c) the risk-evaluation phase, and d) the phase of the risk assessment and safety-related decision making. The results show that in some cases the risk value has been calculated in PPC to be higher than 500 (in the risk rating of 0-1000), which imposes the taking of suppressive measures for abolishing the danger source, while the fatal accident frequency rate (per 10⁸ man-hrs) is FAFR ≅ 2.4.     

污染场地调查与评估信息系统设计

为了管理和风险评估污染场地,结合调查和评价应用中的管理工作流程,对污染场地数据库的设计方案进行了分析,其中包括数据标准的制定、数据库总体结构设计和数据表设计等;同时具体介绍了调查与评估信息系统的设计方案,包括系统设计目标、总体结构和功能模块设计等内容,为系统的构建进一步提供技术支持.     

京津冀地区“煤改电”对PM2.5污染的健康效益评估

为准确评估京津冀地区采暖期实施“煤改电”政策带来的健康效益,估算了京津冀地区各区县采暖期“煤改电”政策实施前后PM_2.5污染导致的过早死亡人数,并采用支付意愿法计算了相应的健康损失价值.结果表明,京津冀地区“煤改电”政策实施后带来了1 745人(95%CI:1 443～1 907)健康效益和23.78亿元(95%CI:14.50～30.63)经济效益.北京、天津及河北地区的健康效益分别为495人(95%CI:436～554)、 296人(95%CI:238～354)及954人(95%CI:693～1 076).经济效益分别为3.50亿元(95%CI:3.08～3.92)、 3.32亿元(95%CI:2.67～3.96)及16.96亿元(95%CI:8.75～22.75),分别占各地区GDP的0.01%、 0.02%及0.04%. COPD、 LC、 ALRI、 IHD、 STROKE减少的死亡人数分别为187人(95%CI:165～224)、 318人(95%CI:178～458)、 193人(95%CI:115～204)、 506人(95%CI:232～780)...     

粤港澳大湾区污染场地土壤风险管控制度体系建设与思考

防范污染场地环境风险和保障人居环境安全是粤港澳大湾区建设世界级城市群面临的重要挑战和工作内容之一.由于粤港澳在政治制度和土地管理等方面的差异,以及珠三角9市内部城市化水平、产业结构以及环境管理能力的差别,大湾区各地污染场地风险管控模式有明显的差异,分析粤港澳大湾区典型城市污染场地风险管控特点,对加强污染场地风险管控技术交流与合作,优化大湾区污染场地风险管控制度具有重要意义.本文在简述我国污染场地风险管控制度体系的基础上,重点介绍了广州、深圳、东莞、香港和澳门的污染场地风险管控制度体系、监管对象、污染评估与整治程序等的特点,对其风险管控制度体系进行了分析与对比,并针对土地规划、政策反馈、信息公开及联盟机制探索等提出了思考与建议.总体来看,香港及珠三角部分地市构建了行之有效的污染场地风险管控制度体系,且体现了一定的地方特点,但随着污染场地的进一步开发再利用,打造粤港澳大湾区世界级城市群的建设目标将对污染场地风险管控策略的安全性、精细化和时效性等提出更高的要求,互相借鉴和充分学习,加强大湾区2区9市污染场地风险管控上的技术交流与合作,是实现大湾区污染场地安全再利用与高效开发的有效路径.     

中国红色旅游政策实施对网络关注度的空间溢出效应——基于语义分析与空间计量的实证

从政策供给和公众需求的双重视角对中国红色旅游发展进行研究,有助于自上而下进行旅游资源的调配优化和自下而上调整红色旅游产品的开发创新。整合2011—2019年有关红色旅游的政务服务文本、微博信息文本和中国大陆31个省份的面板数据,使用文本语义分析比较了政策实施和网络关注的差异,从政策空间关联的视角构建空间权重矩阵,应用空间面板杜宾模型,测算红色旅游政策实施对网络关注度的空间溢出效应。结果表明：（1）自上而下的红色旅游政策实施与自下而上的网络反馈之间存在差异。（2）红色旅游网络关注度具有显著的地理和政策空间依赖性,政务服务中对传播红色文化目标的重视是网络关注度空间溢出效应产生的主要原因,政策稳定性则与红色旅游网络关注度呈负相关关系,地方政府间不稳定的竞合关系和政策发展环境的低水平稳态是导致公众对红色旅游关注度不及政策预期的可能原因。（3）在地理和政策空间关联作用下,地区公共服务能力呈现出正向溢出效应,而信息化变量表现为负向溢出效应,加强区域联动和信息化融合是红色旅游政策创新的方向。