Impacts of Variable Climate and Effluent Flows on the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer

Assessing groundwater resources in the arid and semiarid borderlands of the United States and Mexico represents a challenge for land and water managers, particularly in the Transboundary Santa Cruz Aquifer (TSCA). Population growth, residential construction, and industrial activities have increased groundwater demand in the TSCA, in addition to wastewater treatment and sanitation demands. These activities, coupled with climate variability, influence the hydrology of the TSCA and emphasize the need for groundwater assessment tools for decision‐making purposes. This study assesses the impacts of changes in groundwater demand, effluent discharge, and climate uncertainties within the TSCA from downstream of the Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant to the northern boundary of the Santa Cruz Active Management Area. We use a conceptual water budget model to analyze the long‐term impact of the different components of potential recharge and water losses within the aquifer. Modeling results project a future that ranges from severe long‐term drying to positive wetting. This research improves the understanding of the impact of natural and anthropogenic variables on water sustainability, with an accessible methodology that can be globally applied.     

长江中下游河道整治工程施工期溢油风险防范措施研究

文中主要针对长江中下游河道整治工程施工期可能会发生的溢油事故,利用费伊公式进行油膜扩散的预测,提出溢油风险防范措施。建议在施工范围内的饮用水取水口在施工期预先设置围油栏,将溢油事故对取水口的影响降低至最低程度。     

企业环保信用评价政策实施研究

2013年《企业环境信用评价办法(试行)》印发后,各地在健全环保信用评价制度上做了不少探索,一些专家、学者也对企业环保信用评价制度做了一些研究,但针对全国实施情况和地区实施差异性的总体研究和深度总结较少。本文在系统搜集我国31个省、自治区、直辖市所发布的企业环保信用评价政策文件的基础上,从评价范围、评价方法和评价结果等方面对结合地方特点制订的21份文件进行剖析,并对政策实施效果及执行中存在的问题进行总结归纳,最后提出加快立法进度、完善政策体系和强化结果应用等对策建议。     

联合国可持续发展目标的评估与落实研究最新进展——目标关系的视角

目标间关系是影响可持续发展目标执行的重要挑战。本文回顾了关于目标间权衡和协同关系的研究成果,梳理了既有研究中平衡目标间关系的评估方法以及可以促进多目标实现的政策创新手段,总结了影响监测评估和政策手段发挥作用的因素。研究发现：目标间普遍存在部分或整体性的权衡和协同关系;以综合指数法和事前评估法为代表的评估方法开始转向关注目标间复杂的联动关系;减贫、减排、土地政策以及清洁生产和多元利益主体协作机制对目标的整体实现有助益;监测评估作用的发挥受限于数据管理和绩效测量方法的选择,政策手段的效果在一定程度上受到治理能力和既有制度安排的影响。最后,对未来中国落实可持续发展目标提出了展望和建议,要确立中国可持续发展目标间的整体关系,加强对目标执行和实现的事前评估能力,将更多本土化的SDGs指标纳入国家中长期发展规划。     

国家“十四五”环境经济政策改革路线图

"十三五"时期环境经济政策对建立我国生态文明建设长效机制发挥了重要作用,"十四五"时期需要通过进一步深化环境经济政策改革与创新以适应新时代生态文明建设需要。本文研究提出了我国"十四五"时期环境经济政策改革思路、框架与重点,认为我国"十四五"时期环境经济政策改革要深入贯彻习近平生态文明思想,系统考虑政策改革创新面临的新形势和新要求,推进建立"两山"转化和环境质量达标的长效激励机制,突出环境质量持续改善激励、突出经济过程全链条调控,突出政策手段的系统优化与协同增效,突出政策执行能力保障。继续推进生态环境财政制度改革,深化绿色价格税费机制创新,推进建立多元化、市场化生态补偿制度,健全生态环境权益交易机制,完善绿色金融体系,并同步推进完善生态环境价值核算、环境信息公开和信用体系、资源环境名录、政策绩效评估等政策实施配套能力建设,构建全面支撑生态文明建设的环境经济政策体系,推进环境治理体系和治理能力现代化。     

中国可再生能源政策演化、效果评估与未来展望

发展可再生能源已成为中国能源转型及减缓气候变化的关键途径。2006年《可再生能源法》实施至今,中国可再生发展取得举世瞩目成绩。然而可再生能源在中国整个能源结构中的占比仍然偏低,其未来可持续发展仍面临挑战,如可再生能源发展资金缺口持续扩大,可再生能源电力消纳仍然面临一定障碍。在未来新的发展背景下,有必要对中国可再生能源政策进行系统的评估和总结,进一步探讨未来可再生能源政策的优化方案。本文首先对中国2005—2019年可再生能源政策的发展历程及演化路径进行总结梳理,基于不同时期的发展特点及面临的主要矛盾将中国可再生能源政策历程划分为四个阶段;然后在综述相关研究基础上,对中国可再生能源政策的实施效果进行评估,包括政策有效性、政策成本、技术进步等。结果表明,中国过去十年的可再生能源政策对促进可再生能源快速发展是积极有效的,而促进可再生能源发展的政策成本仍然有进一步下降的空间;另外,虽然中国可再生能源发电成本下降显著,然而基于历史经验的技术进步率仍然不足以支撑实现中国2020年平价上网的目标,未来需要进一步推动可再生能源技术的进步和发电成本的下降。结合当前及未来中国可再生能源发展所处阶段的特点及面临挑战,我们提出进一步完善中国可再生能源政策以促进可再生能源持续稳定发展的政策建议,一是完善可再生能源绿色电力证书交易制度,增强可再生能源发展的内生激励并降低政策实施成本;二是建立储能技术市场机制,为减少弃电以及推动可再生能源消纳提供政策支持;三是推进碳金融体系建设,为可再生能源发展提供新的融资来源并降低发电成本。     

Consequence risk analysis using operating procedure event trees and dynamic simulation

Faults due to human errors cost the petrochemical industry billions of dollars every year and can have adverse environmental consequences. Unquantified human error probabilities exist during process state transitions performed each day by process operators using standard operating procedures. Managing the risks associated with operating procedures is an essential part of managing the overall safety risk. Additional operator training and safety education cannot eliminate all such faults due to human errors; therefore, we propose an operating procedure event tree (OPET) like analysis with branches and events specifically designed to perform risk analysis on operating procedures. The OPET method adapts event trees to analyze the risk due to human error while performing operating procedures. We consider human error scenarios during the procedure and determine the likely consequences by applying dynamic simulation. The modified event tree provides an estimate of the error frequencies.Operating procedure steps were developed, and potential operator faults were determined for two typical equipment switching procedures found in chemical plant operations. Then, dynamic simulation using Aspen HYSYS software was applied to determine the overpressure related consequences of each fault. Finally, the error frequencies resulting from those scenarios were analyzed using operating procedure event trees. We found that a typical ethylene plant gas header would overpressure with 0.6% frequency per manual dryer switch. Since dryer switches occur from every few days up to once per shift, these results suggest that dryer switching should be automated to ensure safe and environmentally friendly operation. Process dryer switching performed manually by operators opening and closing gate valves can be automated with control valves and a distributed control system. A sample distillation column was found to overpressure with 0.85% frequency per manual reflux pump switch.     

Shelter-in-place risk assessment for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide and its application in emergency management

This paper provides a risk assessment method of sheltering in-place for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide. In this paper, the shelter-in-place risk is estimated by integrating the health consequences of an individual taking one kind of emergency response to the emergency orders of sheltering in place from the emergency decision makers and the probability of the corresponding emergency response action. The probability of the corresponding emergency response action in the proposed method is estimated through the accident probability analysis and the probability analysis of taking a certain response action. The health consequence estimation is based on air exchange rate test of the shelter buildings as well as accident consequence calculation. The evaluation of shelter-in-place risks based on “as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)” guidelines was employed to provide suggestions for emergency management under both normal conditions and off normal conditions. A case study of risk assessment of sheltering in the local residential houses in Xuanhan County of Sichuan Province, China was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed risk assessment process of shelter-in-place and its application in the decision-making process for emergency management.     

Risk analysis of Chongqing urban rail transit network

Urban rail network safety is a critical sector of urban public safety. However, there is no uniform standard for the safety evaluation of the urban rail network. This paper presents a novel methodology by integrating a multilevel decision tree with a fuzzy analytical approach to enhance urban rail network safety. The proposed methodology overcomes serious limitations such as subjectivity in the data and independence of the variables in decision-making processes. The proposed methodology is applied to the risk evaluation of the selected Chongqing rail transit lines and the Expo Line. The risk analysis is considered using the field data collected from these transit lines. The applied case studies confirm the general applicability of the methodology and the multilevel decision tree network. The main risk factors identified for the Chongqing rail traffic system are the terrorist threat, emergency management, and aging infrastructure which need to be investigated as a priority to mitigate risk associated with these infrastructures.