Frequency data and modification factors used in QRA studies

The source data for QRA’s is important to assure meaningful risk assessment results, particularly when the result is to be compared against quantitative risk acceptance criteria. The author’s company is one of the largest global QRA providers and we have concluded that the UK HSE Hydrocarbon Release Database (HCRD) provides the basis for the best leak frequency data as it offers complete leak data collection in a systematic manner, against a known population of equipment and facilities in the UK sector of the North Sea for which there is an accurate parts count estimate. The LEAK program is described. It screens HCRD to remove leak events not associated with full operations inventories and flows (e.g. when isolated for maintenance) and further uses a distribution function that permits frequencies for any arbitrary hole size range to be determined (e.g. 25 mm leaks, 50 mm leaks, full-bore ruptures). An important factor is that leak frequency data is not stationary, offshore operators have improved their control of leak events and the HCRD shows a declining leak rate over time.DNV often uses frequency modification techniques, termed MOR - Modification of Risk. This paper reviews 4 methods developed by the company internationally. These are the Manager Method, the API 581 method, a barrier based method, and a proprietary management system based method. These all permit localization of UK North Sea data to apply to other facilities (onshore or offshore) and with different management systems and mechanical integrity programs.Overall, localized data using MOR is considered more accurate than direct use of UK North Sea data, however validation is an issue. There are no direct comparisons that compare leak statistics over a sufficiently long period with static management systems and integrity programs. Thus MOR techniques remain judgment based approaches, but transparent in methodology and assumptions. The barrier based modification technique is the most directly verifiable of the four MOR methods presented.     

Dynamic model for a heat exchanger tube rupture discharging a high-pressure flashing liquid into a low-pressure liquid-filled shell

Shell-tube type heat exchangers are often used to exchange heat between a high-pressure fluid and a low-pressure fluid. The pressure difference between these two fluids could be significantly high. In the event of a partial or full rupture of a tube, a problem may arise in that a transient pressure rise phenomenon could occur due to the flashing of the high-pressure sub-cooled fluid in the tube into the low-pressure shell, which may cause the shell to rupture with subsequent damage to equipment. This paper presents a dynamic model to describe the transient phenomenon occurring on the shell side following various scenarios of tube rupture. The spatial and temporal aspects of the flow transients along the pressure safety valve riser are accounted for by solving the one-dimensional continuity and momentum hyperbolic partial differential equations as applied to the liquid-filled riser. The dynamics of the attached piping system are also accounted for via two mechanistic models; the first is based on an inertial-resistive assumption of the fluids in this system, while the other is based on the assumption of anechoic perturbations passing through a long section of the attached piping. The latter is justified in cases where the attached piping is long enough such that reflections from the downstream end do not interfere with transients occurring in the shell during the initial phase of fluid flashing into the shell side following rupture. The various phases of this phenomenon are described, however the paper focuses on the initial phase of the phenomenon during which shell overpressure may be encountered. The model is applied to two ethylene heaters in tandem; the first uses propylene on the shell side to heat the ethylene on the tube side, while the second uses methanol, also on the shell side. The ratio between the shell design pressure to the tube design pressure in these two heaters are 0.169 and 0.154, respectively, hence the motivation to accurately model the transients involved in this phenomenon. The practical aspects and discussion around techniques to alleviate potential overpressure scenarios due to tube rupture are emphasized throughout the paper.     

Does your facility have a dust problem: Methods for evaluating dust explosion hazards

The hazards of dust explosions prevailing in plants are dependent on a large variety of factors that include process parameters, such as pressure, temperature and flow characteristics, as well as equipment properties, such as geometry layout, the presence of moving elements, dust explosion characteristics and mitigating measures. A good dust explosion risk assessment is a thorough method involving the identification of all hazards, their probability of occurrence and the severity of potential consequences. The consequences of dust explosions are described as consequences for personnel and equipment, taking into account consequences of both primary and secondary events.While certain standards cover all the basic elements of explosion prevention and protection, systematic risk assessments and area classifications are obligatory in Europe, as required by EU ATEX and Seveso II directives. In the United States, NFPA 654 requires that the design of the fire and explosion safety provisions shall be based on a process hazard analysis of the facility, process, and the associated fire or explosion hazards. In this paper, we will demonstrate how applying such techniques as SCRAM (short-cut risk analysis method) can help identify potentially hazardous conditions and provide valuable assistance in reducing high-risk areas. The likelihood of a dust explosion is based on the ignition probability and the probability of flammable dust clouds arising. While all possible ignition sources are reviewed, the most important ones include open flames, mechanical sparks, hot surfaces, electric equipment, smoldering combustion (self-ignition) and electrostatic sparks and discharges. The probability of dust clouds arising is closely related to both process and dust dispersion properties.Factors determining the consequences of dust explosions include how frequently personnel are present, the equipment strength, implemented consequence-reducing measures and housekeeping, as risk assessment techniques demonstrate the importance of good housekeeping especially due to the enormous consequences of secondary dust explosions (despite their relatively low probability). The ignitibility and explosibility of the potential dust clouds also play a crucial role in determining the overall risk.Classes describe both the likelihood of dust explosions and their consequences, ranging from low probabilities and limited local damage, to high probability of occurrence and catastrophic damage. Acceptance criteria are determined based on the likelihood and consequence of the events. The risk assessment techniques also allow for choosing adequate risk reducing measures: both preventive and protective. Techniques for mitigating identified explosions risks include the following: bursting disks and quenching tubes, explosion suppression systems, explosion isolating systems, inerting techniques and temperature control. Advanced CFD tools (DESC) can be used to not only assess dust explosion hazards, but also provide valuable insight into protective measures, including suppression and venting.     

Quantitative risk assessment: How realistic are those frequency assumptions?

Although much has changed in recent decades in how the consequences are treated in risk assessment of major industrial accidents, estimation of frequencies still appears to be largely based on values from several decades ago. This paper reviews briefly some of the implications of this, drawing on lessons not only from the process industries but also from other not so obviously relevant fields such as aerospace and finance, where the significance of such factors such as organizational culture, normalization of deviance, ownership, demographic change, etc. is becoming increasingly recognized in the analysis and hence the control of risk.Failure to consider such factors and their effects can pose a problem, because risk assessment is not simply an abstract concept but can have a real influence on the level of risk. If protective measures such as the safety culture of the site, etc. can be shown to significantly change the risk zone, this can persuade the risk generator to improve those factors or take other steps to reduce the risk such as reducing the inventory in the process. Conversely, assessments conducted for well-run companies may misrepresent the risk if the site ownership changes to a financial holding company with a focus on maximizing short-term profit and resale of the assets, and it can be difficult even for well-motivated management to justify protective measures if they produce no apparent difference in the risk.This paper introduces these and other issues for consideration in the symposium which follows.     

The management of process control deployment using interactions in risks analyses

The purpose of this article is to present the concept of risk typology and its use in the management of process control deployment at a fab-wide level. This research provides a comprehensive method based on Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis to control failures that count throughout an organization.The method employed in this research uses a model of risk analysis and typology to operate a demonstration and to infer management practices.It results from this model: (1) the demonstration of equalities among some typologies and (2) a practical manner to use it to manage the deployment of controls and feedbacks throughout an entire manufacturing system. A four years observation of process control deployment underlines the potential of this method to remove silos-effects among risks analyses.To conclude, the concept of typology can sustain process control management and especially the deployment of controls and feedbacks. An industrial observation evaluates its potential of development.     

A binational, supply-side evaluation for managing water quality and invasive fouling species on California's coastal boats

Integrated solutions are needed for sustainable management of risks posed by recreational boats to coastal water quality and ecosystems. Fouling organisms roughen vessel hull surfaces, creating friction that slows sailboats and increases fuel consumption by powerboats. Hull fouling control strategies for recreational boats that are stored in the water may include antifouling hull paints, newer alternative hull coatings, periodic in-water hull cleaning, and excluding propagules by surrounding the boat with a slip liner or raising it above water on a lift. Copper discharged to harbor waters from antifouling paints via passive leaching and in-water hull cleaning may elevate dissolved copper levels above government standards. Invasive species carried among boat-hull fouling organisms may be introduced as boats move among coastal areas. Some of these species tolerate copper in antifouling paints and copper-polluted harbor waters. Policy development must consider supply-side capacity, as well as economic and environmental sustainability, in managing these issues. This paper presents a supply-side evaluation useful in developing policies to co-manage water quality and invasive species risks for recreational boats navigating along the coasts of California, the Baja California peninsula and California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Supply-side perspectives on services, materials, costs, and boat owner behaviors, such as residence and travel patterns, awareness of hull-coating choices and selection of hull coatings, are determined. Analyses include evaluation of risks, risk management capacity and costs, and role of education in risk management. The issues raised are broadly applicable, as they are appearing on research and policy agendas in diverse coastal areas.     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

江苏省商品有机肥推广应用补贴方式调查与分析研究

概述了我国有机肥产业发展及财政补贴现状。以江苏省商品有机肥推广应用补贴方式为例,探讨了地方政府通过实施企业招标、资格认证、评分审核等措施,扶持有机肥生产企业建设,在实现农业循环经济发展的同时保护生态环境,提高农民和企业参与的积极性。最后提出了借鉴江苏补贴模式,从经济上加大有机肥产业扶持力度,加强质量保证及服务保障体系建设,加强科技支撑、促进行业发展的政策建议。     

关于农业生态补偿的政策思考

为推动农业生态补偿在我国的实施,从政策的角度分析了实施农业生态补偿的政策背景、农业生态补偿的政策取向,提出应当从解决我国农业和农村突出问题以及我国农业支持政策的转型2个层面来深刻理解实施农业生态补偿的政策价值,农业生态补偿应定位于对农业的生态补偿,以激励农业生产方式的转变为目标,并对具体实施生态补偿中需要重点关注的几个方面提出建议。     

近年来中国边境贸易研究的问题与发展趋势

自古以来,边境贸易是我国对外经济交流的主要方式.近年来对我国边境研究较多,主要集中在我国边境贸易发展的历史总结、政策规范、边境贸易与区域经发展等方面,但对边境贸易与边境安全、边境贸易过程中跨境民族问题和我国边境贸易的优势等方面的研究较少.随着研究的不断深入,针对边境贸易出现了边境地区当地居民参与边境贸易过程、边境贸易与大尺度区域经济发展、"区位论"视角下的边境贸易等新动向.