A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: An Approach for Characterizing Tropospheric Ozone Risk to Forests

/ The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature, and consequently an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization, including: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species' and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species' response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation of the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this approach considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). In the future, the GIS-based risk characterization will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees with relevant environmental interactions and model simulated response of mixed stands. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species' distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time as more information becomes available.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; GIS; Ozone; Risk characterization; Forests; Trees     

水稻生产气象灾害危险性分析：—以湖南省常德市水稻生产为例

本文通过对研究区水稻气象灾害规律的研究和危险性评价,计算了不同等级的水稻综合风险率,为保险部门制定水稻保险费率提供了科学依据.     

美国海军舰艇命名体系研究

美国海军舰艇命名体系由任命前缀、舰艇名称、分类代号、舷号4类要素构成,首先分析了每类要素对于命名体系的贡献,然后基于美国海军舰艇命名体系,以美国海军舰艇名册为数据源,通过要素提取、规则建立等步骤分析美国海军现役舰艇组成。经过分析,美国现役715艘舰艇分为战斗舰、辅助舰、战斗艇、支援艇、未在分类代号中定义等5大类67类型177级别,通过对比基于类型与级别规则、基于任命前缀规则的结果挖掘出美国海军现役舰艇组成规律。     

长大区间隧道抽出式串联通风机排烟能力实验研究

为实现有效通风以降低隧道火灾带来的损失和伤亡,依托青岛市地铁8号线大洋站至青岛北站区间隧道,建立线性比尺为1∶15的隧道通风排烟模型实验系统,针对通风机串联单抽,围绕3种通风机频率匹配组合,测定单机的变频频率值、电功消耗、排烟道与行车道的断面平均风速以及右侧行车道静压。研究结果表明：在相同功率消耗下,不同频率匹配的串联通风机排烟效果存在差异;针对此差异,利用气体挡烟墙性能及其计算欧拉数值比较发现,风井近端的通风机频率较大时,下游对污染气流的抵抗力更强,拥有更好的排烟效果。研究结果可为隧道火灾提供更有效率的防灾救灾数据支持,并从欧拉数方面为研究隧道临界风速提供新角度。     

Risk assessment of safety level in university laboratories using questionnaire and Bayesian network

Accidents in university laboratories not only create a great threat to students’ safety but bring significant negative social impact. This paper investigates the university laboratory safety in China using questionnaire and Bayesian network (BN) analysis. Sixteen influencing factors for building the Bayesian net were firstly identified. A questionnaire was distributed to graduate students at 60 universities in China to acquire the probability of safe/unsafe conditions for sixteen influencing factors, based on which the conditional probability of four key factors (human, equipment and material, environment, and management) was calculated using the fuzzy triangular theory and expert judgment. The determined conditional probability was used to develop a Bayesian network model for the risk analysis of university laboratory safety and identification of the main reasons behind the accidents. Questionnaire results showed that management problems are prominent due to insufficient safety education training and weak management level of management personnel. The calculated unsafe state probability was found to be 65.2%. In the BN analysis, the human factor was found to play the most important role, followed by equipment and material factor. Sensitive and inferential analysis showed that the most sensitive factors are personnel incorrect operation, illegal operation, and experiment equipment failure. Based on the analysis, countermeasures were proposed to improve the safe management and operation of university laboratories.     

Simulation of scenario characteristics of LPG tank explosion accident and its contribution to emergency planning: A case study

Leakage and explosion of hazardous chemicals during road transportation can cause serious building damage and casualties, and adoption of highly-efficient emergency rescue measures plays a critical role in reducing accidental hazards. Considering a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) transport tanker explosion accident that occurred in Wenling, Zhejiang Province, China on June 13, 2020 as example, this study proposes a risk assessment framework. This framework recreates the leakage and explosion of the accident process using FLACS v10.9, suggests plans for evacuation, describes the rescue areas of different levels, and explores the influence of environmental factors on the evacuation and rescue areas. The results show that simulated and predicted distributions of fuel vapour cloud concentration and explosion overpressure can provide a reference basis for rapid rescue activities; the characterization of the dynamic effects of wind speed, wind direction, and temperature with respect to the evacuation and rescue areas can be used as theoretical support for on-site adjustment of rescue forces. The role of obstacles can prevent the expansion of the evacuation areas under low wind-speed conditions, and the presence of highly congested obstacles determines the level of the rescue area. The results obtained are important for the risk analysis and the development of emergency rescue measures in case of explosion accidents associated with transportation of hazardous chemicals on high-hazard and high-sensitive road sections.     

A thermal hazard risk evaluation of emulsion polymerisation and vinyl acetate monomers in the latex manufacturing process

Latex is extensively used in industrial products. However, completing some processes at scale leads to unacceptable levels of risk that need to be quantified and mitigated. Systemic risks must be eliminated wherever possible, and safety takes priority over efficiency and quality. To assess the process risks accurately, four raw materials were examined in this study: polyvinyl acetate (PVA), latex process-initiator-ammonium persulfate (APS) and hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM). The physicochemical composition of the PVA latex process was determined via calorimeters, including differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and vent sizing package 2 (VSP2). The calorimetry results showed that the protective colloid was a critical component in the polymerisation reaction. In addition, when adding initiators to the system, it is vital to observe the normal ratio of materials and keep the stirring system operating. The scenario system also simulated the effects of shutting down various inhibitory programs, including the build-up of free radicals that could result in a runaway reaction when the initiator was added in excess. On the other hand, the result of the risk matrix displayed as a medium level, indicating that although the probability of an accident is low, the resulting severity is at disaster level. As a result, this study provides process safety engineers with a reliable frame of reference for assessing the potential dangers in the PVA latex manufacturing process.     

Stipulation of the criteria for the construction of eco agricultural county in China

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＮｏｗｗｅａｌｌｃｏｎｃｅｒｎｏｕｒｓｅｌｖｅｓｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｃｏｎｔｅｍｐｏｒａｒｙｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｓｏｆｏｖｅｒｐｏｐｕｌａｔｉｏｎ,ｒｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｅｘｐｌｏｉｔａｔｉｏｎ,ｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｐｏｌｌｕｔｉｏｎａｎｄ...     

Influence of chlorsulfuron herbicide on size of microbial biomass in the soil

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｕｓｅｏｆｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌｓ,ｉｎｃｌｕｄｉｎｇｐｅｓｔｉｃｉｄｅｓ,ｈａｓｂｅｃｏｍｅａｎｉｎｔｅｇｒａｌａｎｄｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃａｌｌｙｅｓｓｅｎｔｉａｌｐａｒｔｏｆｍｏｄｅｒｎａｇｒｉｃｕｌｔｕｒｅ.Ｐｅｓｔｉｃｉｄｅ?..