Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.     

金属尖化前缘模型主动式热疏导性能试验研究

目的为了更好地解决高超声速飞行器舵、翼前缘及头锥等气动热环境恶劣区域的热防护问题。方法采用主动式热疏导技术,以高温液态合金为工质,设计并制作具有主动式热疏导功能的尖化前缘金属试验模型(R=5 mm)。根据模型外尺寸设计加工一套石英灯仿形加热器和热流测试模型,开展地面热环境模拟试验。结果试件在前缘中心温度530℃左右时具有瞬态启动特性。前缘中心和大面积中心最大辐射热流密度分别为1000 kw/m^2和580 kw/m^2,试件在该环境中长时间受热状态下仍具有较好的热疏导能力。试验后试件无工质泄漏和结构破坏,具有一定的可重复使用性。结论可以此热疏导方式结合现有成熟热防护技术进一步开展工程设计与应用。     

极低风速条件下水-气界面甲烷气体传输速率分析

薄边界层理论被广为用来计算水-气界面气体通量,而气体传输速率(k600)则是其中的关键性环境因子.为了研究极低风速下小型浅水湿地水-气界面甲烷气体传输速率,以宜昌饮用水水库梅子垭水库和周邻5个富营养化池塘为研究对象,采用静态通量箱进行了为期一年的水-气界面甲烷气体通量观测,同步监测了水环境因子和气象因子.野外监测时的风速(U10)范围为0~0.75 m·s~(-1),平均值约为0.19 m·s~(-1);水温(Tw)变化范围为6.3~30.9℃,平均值约为19.3℃.结果表明,梅子垭水库和周边5个池塘水-气界面甲烷气体传输速率较小,在0.20~1.99 cm·h~(-1)之间变化,平均值约为0.50 cm·h~(-1).本研究利用表层水温和风速指标两个参数的双二次项模型和二次项加幂函数模型,回归得到了气体传输速率的数学公式,回归结果与原始数据和对k600进行深度平均(bin-averaged)后的数据均存在极显著性关系.     

基于转运站满负荷的北京市新东西城区生活垃圾物流优化方案研究

北京市新东城和新西城成立后迫切需要对现有生活垃圾物流方案进行优化,实现生活垃圾资源化处理.以北京市东西城区生活垃圾为研究对象,利用统计预测模型和GIS空间分析技术与方法,在分析了4个老城区生活垃圾产生量及所属密闭清洁站垃圾流向和流量基础上,提出了基于满负荷运行的三大转运站(马家楼、小武基和大屯)生活垃圾等距离收集运输优化物流模式,分析了现状及新物流模式下生活垃圾物料平衡.结果表明,与现状收集模式相比,等距离优化物流模式可使清运距离减少约9.3×105km.a-1,与现状相比减少10%;同时,基于三大转运站满负荷运转的,部分考虑海淀、丰台和朝阳区跨区运行的生活垃圾优化物流模式下,且充分利用现有的处理处置设施,可减少原生垃圾填埋量约28.3%.在优化模式的基础上若北京市正筹建的3座垃圾焚烧厂建成后,可使新东西城区生活垃圾焚烧、生化、填埋比例由现状1∶4.8∶4.2,达到3.8∶4.5∶1.7,可基本接近北京市2015年生活垃圾焚烧、堆肥和填埋比例达到4∶3∶3规划目标.     

油库项目环境风险评价案例分析

根据《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》,对油库项目环评中的环境风险因子进行识别,并分析其风险源项。采用导则推荐的多烟团模式计算原油储罐泄漏引发池火事故后,对周围环境影响的范围和程度。因此对油库项目进行环境风险评价时,应重视油库泄漏事故对环境的影响。     

漳江调水工程水质目标可达性研究

针对峰头水库和漳江干流,分别建立零维水质模型和一维非稳态水量水质数学模型,并对参数进行率定。对9种不同调水方案实施后漳江流域近期(2015年)和远期(2020年)水质情况进行预测,结果表明:随着调水量和排污量的增加,漳江水质远期差于近期,且取水口越往漳江下游设置,调水对漳江水质的影响越小;总体上调水对漳江水质影响不大,调水后漳江水质达到地表水Ⅲ类水标准;漳江调水工程从对水质影响方面来说是可行的。     

漓江沉积柱重金属垂向分布特征及污染评价

对桂林漓江3个采样点沉积柱状沉积物中主要重金属元素(Cd、Cr、Cu、Zn、Pb、As和Ni)的垂向分布进行了测定。结果表明:7种重金属元素具有相似的垂向变化特征;横向上表现为靠近市区的含量高远离,市区的含量低。地积累指数评价结果显示,远离市区的沉积柱7种金属污染程度较轻,仅有Cd和Ni属于无～中污染程度。临近市区的沉积柱形成污染的元素为Cd、Cu、Zn、Pb和As,主要集中在底层和次表层。     

三岔河沿岸植物铅、镉富集特性的研究

以紫茎泽兰（EupatoriumadenophorumSpreng）、青蒿（HerbaArtemisiaeAnnuae）、三叶鬼针草（Bidenspilosa）、野牡丹（MelastomaAfffine D．Don）、光叶蕨（Knuiwatsukiacuspidata）为例,分别在河边、路边、山上和污水灌溉的旱地4个采样点采取5种植物的根部和茎叶,测量重金属元素Pb、Cd的含量、富集系数和转移系数并分析数据。结果表明,各种植物不同器官在不同环境中对重金属元素Pb、Cd的富集和转移水平各不相同,就平均水平来说三叶鬼针草对重金属Pb、Cd的富集系数较大,转移系数也高,但其对Pb的转移量明显高于Cd的转移量;紫茎泽兰对重金属元素Cd的富集和转移速度相对高于其它4种植物,说明紫茎泽兰对Cd的吸收和转移比较快,可作为受镉污染土壤进行改良的备选植物种。     

Traffic behaviour among adolescents using mopeds and light motorcycles

INTRODUCTION: Motorcycling is recognized to be a relatively risky activity. Powered two wheelers (PTW) are classified as mopeds, light, and heavy motorcycles, the first two categories being denoted light PTWs. This paper reviews the scientific literature on accident risks and traffic behavior among users of light PTWs with the aim of clarifying the current state of knowledge. METHOD: Based on a risk analytical and an anthropological perspective on motorcycling, the paper discusses the significance of cultural and social factors as important aspects of safety. More targeted and effective safety measures, for example better training programs, are needed to prevent motorcycle accidents. This means developing a deeper understanding of the rider as an individual, and the individuals within different groups and settings. Why and how motorcyclists approach the road, its function as a social arena, the varieties of goals and values, and the motorcyclists' own perceptions of the behavior that ensures their "achievements" or "successes", are some of the issues. Today, this kind of knowledge is scarce and almost entirely absent from the scientific literature. RESULTS: We conclude that the massive quantities of data on numbers of accidents, the categorization of situations, the causal explanations related to speed, gender, age, lack of concentration so forth, can only be employed as support for safety measures as long as they are linked to social and cultural factors. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Risk informed decision making has become an integral part of authorities' and manufacturers' implementation of safety measures. This tendency is strengthened by the fact that the responsibility of product safety rests upon the manufacturers, cf. for example EU safety regulations. Therefore it is paramount that a thorough understanding of social and cultural factors related to the PTW driving is necessary for the industry to develop targeted and efficient safety measures.     

基于人体皮肤热模型的热防护服评价方法研究

在热防护服热防护性能测试装置基础上,用自行研制的新型耐高温模拟皮肤传感器代替铜片热流计测量通过应急热防护服装面料的热流量,将热流量作为热波皮肤模型边界条件,得到人体皮肤表层下80μm处的温度值,从而得到一定条件下人体真实皮肤达到二级烧伤所需时间,用其评价热防护服用织物的热防护性能,并将热波皮肤模型(TWMBT)的测试值与Pennes模型以及铜片热流计的测试结果进行分析比较。采用热波皮肤模型分析织物层下的"皮肤"防热时间更接近实际皮肤达到二级烧伤时间值,可较为精确的量化织物热防护性能,为应急救援热防护服装的热设计提供理论依据。