绿色“一带一路”建设研究及建议

生态环保是"一带一路"建设的重要内容。在2017年5月14日召开的"一带一路"国际合作高峰论坛系列成果清单包括《关于推动绿色"一带一路"建设的指导意见》、《"一带一路"生态环境保护合作规划》、"一带一路"生态环保大数据服务平台建设、"一带一路"绿色发展国际联盟建立等四项。为更好地理解和推动执行,本文全面进行了分析,并提出下一步推动绿色"一带一路"工作需要解决的关键问题和建议。     

Health benefits valuation of regulatory intervention for air pollution control in thermal power plants in Delhi,India

This study estimates minimum marginal health benefits (morbidity reduction only) of air pollution control and total health benefits arising from regulatory intervention regarding the adoption of the World Bank emission guidelines (WBEG) for thermal power plants (TPPs) in Delhi. The Industrial Source Complex-Short-Term Version–3 (ISCST3) model has been used to estimate the contribution to air pollution from TPPs. The household health production function (avertive behaviour) has been used to value health benefits of air pollution control. The study revealed that the ambient air pollution due to TPPs is reduced by between 62.17% to 83.45% by adopting the WBEG. Annual marginal benefit due to reduction in exposure to air pollution by 1 μg m^?3 is estimated to be US$0.353 per person. Total annual health benefits for adopting the WBEG for TPPs are estimated at US$235.19 million. This study provides a novel methodology to evaluate health benefits of regulatory intervention.     

Committing driving violations: An observational study comparing city, town and village

Introduction

This article compares observed driving behavior in a city, a town, and a village.

Method

Unobtrusive observations were made at intersections in each residential type. Five violation types were observed: (a) not wearing a seat belt (seat belt violation); (b) not using a safety seat for a child (safety seat violation for children); (c) not using a speaker while speaking on the phone (on-phone violation); (d) failing to comply with a ‘give way’ sign (‘give way’ sign violation); and (e) stopping in an undesignated area (undesignated stop violation). It was expected that in accordance with the anonymity hypothesis that the bigger residential areas' rate of traffic violations would be higher. The effects of the residential type, drivers' gender, and age were assessed using the multiple regression model. The stepwise method of evaluation was employed. The model converged on step 3 (Adjusted R square = 0.039). Residential type and gender contributed significantly to the model. Results: Consistent with prior research, male drivers committed more violations than female drivers. Chi-square analyses were used to test the distribution of violations by the settlement types. Overall, more drivers committed violations in the two small residential areas than in the city, with 30% of city drivers, 43% of town drivers, and 51% of village drivers committing at least one violation (χ2 (2) = 37.65, p < 0.001). Moreover, in the town and the village, a combination of one or more violations was committed more often than in the city (χ2 (1) = 34.645, p < 0.001). Accordingly, more drivers committed violations in the two small settlements (48.4%) than in the city (30.6%). Possible explanations for the observed results were provided in the Discussion section.

Impact on Industry

The conclusions of this paper are that drivers in small villages tend to disobey traffic laws. Therefore, efforts have to be made in companies to take this issue in consideration while running fleets in companies located in small places far from the center.     

基于协整和因果分析的我国安全生产宏观政策干预研究

为进一步分析我国安全生产政策的实施效果及存在问题,根据政策时效干预度量化模型,采用协检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析等计量方法对1978-2006年我国特别重大事故发生趋势与政策时效干预力度关系进行量化分析,得出特别重人事故的发生与政策时效干预力度问存在长期均衡关系,且在10%的显著水平下,特别重大事故的发生是政策时效干预力度加强的格兰杰原因.同时分析表明,目前我国安全生产政策干预表现出两大缺点:被动性和滞后性.因此,应逐步开展生产安全事故宏观预警与政策模拟等研究,为提高安全生产宏观政策干预的主动性和前瞻性提供技术支持.     

Effect of long-term changes in soil chemistry induced by road salt applications on N-transformations in roadside soils

Of several impacts of road salting on roadside soils, the potential disruption of the nitrogen cycle has been largely ignored. Therefore the fates of low-level ammonium-N and nitrate-N inputs to roadside soils impacted by salting over an extended period (decades) in the field have been studied. The use of road salts disrupts the proportional contributions of nitrate-N and ammonium-N to the mineral inorganic fraction of roadside soils. It is highly probable that the degree of salt exposure of the soil, in the longer term, controls the rates of key microbial N transformation processes, primarily by increasing soil pH. Additional influxes of ammonium-N to salt-impacted soils are rapidly nitrified therefore and, thereafter, increased leaching of nitrate-N to the local waterways occurs, which has particular relevance to the Water Framework Directive. The results reported are important when assessing the fate of inputs of ammonia to soils from atmospheric pollution.     

The Iowa Graduated Driver Licensing program: effectiveness in reducing crashes of teenage drivers

PROBLEM: Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs vary in the United States in terms of implementation and restrictions. The State of Iowa's GDL program is assessed for its effectiveness in reducing crashes among teenage drivers. METHOD: Time series analysis was used to evaluate police documented crashes involving 16-, 17-, and 18-year-old drivers over a 10 year period, with an intervention identified at the point of GDL implementation. RESULTS: After controlling for seasonal trends and auto-correlative effects, a significant reduction in the crash rate of and 16- and 17-year-old drivers was observed due to the GDL implementation. However, there were no significant reductions in crash rates for 18-year-old drivers. DISCUSSION: The analyses suggest that the Iowa GDL program is effective in reducing the crash rates of 16- and 17-year-old drivers but the effects do not sustain for 18-year-old drivers. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that the program appears to be working, however further analysis is needed to determine what factors are preventing lasting effects for these teenage drivers.     

Integrating Top-Down with Bottom-Up Conservation Policy in Africa

Abstract:  Developed nations intervened in conservation policy across Africa during the 20th century to address needs to protect species and biodiversity that were based on their own perceptions and priorities. In the 21st century, conservationists in Africa have revised these perceptions and begun the process of identifying conservation priorities from an African perspective and in consideration of Africans' priorities. Although foreign conservation interveners struggled to identify mechanisms to which local people would respond, African conservationists are now demonstrating how to integrate the continent's unique socioeconomic circumstances into efforts to protect biodiversity. In Africa effective conservation policy must include the generation of wealth, reduction of disease and hunger, and support of traditional land-use practices.     

Effects of feed-supplementation and hide-spray application of two sources of tannins on enteric and hide bacteria of feedlot cattle

Pathogenic bacteria attached to the hide or shed in the feces of cattle at slaughter can contaminate carcasses intended to be processed for human consumption. Therefore, new pre-harvest interventions are needed to prevent the carriage and excretion of foodborne pathogens in cattle presented to the processing plant. The objectives of this study were to examine the antimicrobial effects of hydrolysable tannin-rich chestnut and condensed tannin-rich mimosa extracts on bacterial indicators of foodborne pathogens when applied as a hide-intervention and as a feed additive to feedlot cattle. Water (control) or solutions (3 % wt/vol) of chestnut- and mimosa-extract treatments were sprayed (25 mL) at the left costal side of each animal to a 1000 cm² area, divided in four equal quadrants. Hide-swabs samples obtained at pre-, 2-min, 8-h, and 24-h post-spray application were cultured to enumerate Escherichia coli/total coliforms and total aerobic plate counts. In a second experiment, diets supplemented without (controls) or with (1.5 % of diet dry matter) chestnut- or mimosa-extracts were fed during a 42–day experimental feeding period. Weekly fecal samples starting on day 0, and rumen fluid obtained on days 0, 7, 21 or 42 were cultured to enumerate E.coli/total coliforms and Campylobacter. Tannin spray application showed no effect of treatment or post-application-time (P> 0.05) on measured bacterial populations, averaging 1.7/1.8, 1.5/1.6 and 1.5/1.7 (log₁₀ CFU/cm²) for E. coli/total coliforms, and 4.0, 3.4 and 4.2 (log₁₀CFU/cm²) in total aerobes for control, chestnut and mimosa treatments, respectively. Mean (± SEM) ruminal E. coli and total coliform concentrations (log₁₀ CFU/mL) were reduced (P< 0.01) in steers fed chestnut-tannins (3.6 and 3.8 ± 0.1) in comparison with the controls (4.1 and 4.2 ± 0.1). Fecal E. coli concentrations were affected by treatment (P< 0.01), showing the highest values (log₁₀ CFU/g) in fecal contents from mimosa-fed steers compared to controls (5.9 versus 5.6 ± 0.1 SEM, respectively). Total coliforms (log CFU/g) showed the highest values (P< 0.01) in feces from chestnut- and mimosa-fed steers (6.0 and 6.1 ± 0.1 respectively) in comparison with controls (5.7 ± 0.1). Fecal Campylobacter concentrations (log₁₀CFU/g) were affected by treatment (P< 0.05), day (P< 0.001) and their interaction (P< 0.01) with the controls having lower concentrations than chestnut- and mimosa-fed steers (0.4, 1.0, and 0.8 ± 0.3, respectively). It was concluded that under our research conditions, tannins were not effective in decreasing measured bacterial populations on beef cattle hides. Additionally, chestnut tannin reduced E. coli and total coliforms within the rumen but the antimicrobial effect was not maintained in the lower gastrointestinal tract. Further research is necessary to elucidate the possible antimicrobial effects of tannins at site-specific locations of the gastrointestinal tract in beef cattle fed high-grain and high-forage diets.     

我国道路交通安全的国际比较研究

我国的道路交通事故是严重的。在对我国道路交通事故特点进行比较研究的基础上，分析了道路交通事故多发的原因，提出了提高道路交通系统安全性的建议。