Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrologic and Water Quality Predictions for a Small Watershed Using SWAT2000

Hydrologic and water quality (H/WQ) models are being used with increasing frequency to devise alternative pollution control strategies. It has been recognized that such models may have a large degree of uncertainty associated with their predictions, and that this uncertainty can significantly impact the utility of the model. In this study, ARRAMIS (Advanced Risk & Reliability Assessment Model) software package was used to analyze the uncertainty of the SWAT2000 (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) outputs concerning nutrients and sediment losses from agricultural lands. ARRAMIS applies Monte Carlo simulation technique connected with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) scheme. This technique is applied to the Warner Creek watershed located in the Piedmont physiographic region of Maryland, and it provides an interval estimate of a range of values with an associated probability instead of a point estimate of a particular pollutant constituent. Uncertainty of model outputs was investigated using LHS scheme with restricted pairing for the model input sampling. Probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each of the 50 model simulations were constructed from these results. Model output distributions of interest in this analysis were stream flow, sediment, organic nitrogen (organic-N), organic phosphorus (organic-P), nitrate, ammonium, and mineral phosphorus (mineral-P) transported with water. Developed probability distribution functions for the model provided information with desirable probability. Results indicate that consideration of input parameter uncertainty produces 64% less mean stream flow along with approximately 8.2% larger sediment loading than obtained using mean input parameters. On the contrary, mean of outputs regarding nutrients such as nitrate, ammonia, organic-N, and organic-P (but not mineral-P) were almost the same as the one using mean input parameters. The uncertainty in predicted stream flow and sediment loading is large, but that for nutrient loadings is the same as that of the corresponding input parameters. This study concluded that using a best possible distribution for the input parameters to reflect the impact of soils and land use diversity in a small watershed on SWAT2000 model outputs may be more accurate than using average values for each input parameter.     

SERES 2000COD自动分析仪几个技术问题

影响SERES2000COD自动监测仪数据质量因素很多,现就实践中影响较大的关键性的几个技术问题提出来讨论:包括仪器工作原理,工作曲线的确立,配制的化学试剂准确性对监测数据结果的影响及蠕动泵管的使用和更换条件.严格遵守SERES2000COD自动监测仪操作程序最大限度地发挥它所具有性能,提高数据的准确性.     

The alignment of agricultural and nature conservation policies in the European Union

Europe is a region of relatively high population density and productive agriculture subject to substantial government intervention under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Many habitats and species of high conservation interest have been created by the maintenance of agricultural practices over long periods. These practices are often no longer profitable, and nature conservation initiatives require government support to cover the cost for them to be continued. The CAP has been reformed both to reduce production of agricultural commodities at costs in excess of world prices and to establish incentives for landholders to adopt voluntary conservation measures. A separate nature conservation policy has established an extensive series of protected sites (Natura 2000) that has, as yet, failed to halt the loss of biodiversity. Additional broader scale approaches have been advocated for conservation in the wider landscape matrix, including the alignment of agricultural and nature conservation policies, which remains a challenge. Possibilities for alignment include further shifting of funds from general support for farmers toward targeted payments for biodiversity goals at larger scales and adoption of an ecosystem approach. The European response to the competing demands for land resources may offer lessons globally as demands on rural land increase.     

Towards the harmonization of water-related policies for managing drought risks across the EU

Drought is recognized as a major issue in the EU, particularly in the Mediterranean region, posing risks to the environment as well as to local and regional economies. The EU policy on water management is continuously evolving, particularly in relation to water scarcity and drought. Starting with the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), which sets the general policy framework for water management across the EU, the EC Communication on Water Scarcity and Drought COM(2007) 414 final set the priorities for managing water scarcity and drought risks. Three follow-up reports (COM(2008) 875 final, COM(2010) 228 final and COM(2011) 133) highlighted achievements and yearly progress within the context of the implementation of the Water Framework Directive, whereas guidance has further been provided through the issue of Technical Reports (e.g. the EC Water Scarcity Drafting Group Technical Report 2008–023 on Drought Management, Including agricultural, drought indicators and climate change aspects). The 2012 EU Water Review (“Blue Print for Safeguarding European Waters” will assess achievements and identify further requirements towards long-term sustainable water use across the EU. However, a harmonized approach on drought risk management at the EU level is still lacking, whereas drought risk in several countries and regions has not been yet fully integrated in water management and relevant sectoral policies.This paper focuses on a proposed paradigm shift from crisis to risk management, which is currently gaining ground as a means of reducing societal vulnerability to droughts. The paper underlines the importance of engaging into risk assessment and management practices and identifies policy gaps and requirements for further improvement of the drought management policy framework at all levels of governance: at the EU, at the national and at the river basin and regional levels.     

我国森林资源产品流动及其变化特征分析

论文运用物流分析的基本思想,基于我国森林资源产品产量、贸易量统计资料,采用统一单位“原木当量”(m₃),估算了1981～2000年森林资源采伐和产品加工环节的资源流量,进而分析我国森林资源产品流动的变化特征。结果表明,我国从“六五”(1981～1985年)到“九五”(1996～2000年)期间,消耗森林资源量分别为10230×104、11678×104、13444×104和16962×104m₃/a,呈加速增长趋势。其中,来自国外的资源流量占总流量的比重呈增加趋势,“六五”期间占19.1%,到“九五”期间上升为48.3%。流入资源以原木、木浆、纸及纸板、胶合板为主,它们主要来自北美、东亚、东南亚地区,有来源多地区化的变化趋向。森林资源在“六五”期间主要流向原木锯材类产品加工,随着产品流向结构的逐步改善,更多的资源流向人造板类产品的生产消费;纸类产品生产消费的资源流量增加迅速,但主要来自国外。     

The Dismantling of End-of-Life Vehicles in Estonia Before Putting into Effect the Directive 2000/53/EC (3 pp)

Background, Aims and Scope When joining the European Union on 1st May 2004, Estonia had to conform its legislation to the European Union legislation. In relation with that, also the treatment requirements on end-of-life vehicles proceeding from Directive 2000/53/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 September 2000 were established in Estonia for the first time. Since this area was not regulated with law beforehand, there was not any information available about it. The aim of the current survey was to ascertain the condition of scrap yards in mid 2004. In addition to that, also to identify the number of scrap yards operating in Estonia, to classify these by the number of dismantled vehicles and the potential environmental hazard, and to map the locations of car dismantling companies and evaluate their compliance with the valid requirements. Methods The companies that have been registered in the Commercial Registry under the activity code 503090-end-of-life vehicle dismantling were visited and visually reviewed. During the visits, the compliance of scrap yards with the existing requirements was evaluated and it was also attempted to identify how environmentally sound the dismantling technology of every scrap yard owner is. Results and Discussion Altogether, 63 scrap yards operated in Estonia by mid 2004. Twelve of them dismantled more than 100 vehicles, 13 of them 51-99 vehicles and 38 up to 50 vehicles a year. The total annual market capacity on dismantling of vehicles in Estonia is considered to be approx. 10,000 units. There are very few companies dealing only with car dismantling as the main business. Most scrap-yard owners also offer side services, e.g. haulage, car repair and maintenance. The dismantlers are interested in the selling of second-hand spare parts and scrap metal. Only one company out of 63 complied with all the requirements enacted by the relevant decision of the Estonian Minister of Environment. The rest of the scrap yards did not meet the requirements on the site on storage and treatment nor did they have the hazardous waste handling licence or the waste permit. Of the requirements established for the site for storage of end-of-life vehicles, 97% of the scrap yards were surrounded with a fence, 67% had a 24-hour guard, 45% had covered the areas with waterproof cover, but only 3% had an oil trap. Sites for treatment were in a somewhat better condition, these were mostly situated inside the buildings, where floors were covered with waterproof covers. Most of the dismantlers collected the waste oil and waste fluids into separate vessels, but there were a number of dismantlers who did not know of existence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) in car air conditioning systems and the availability of mercury in sensors belonging in passenger safety systems. Proceeding from the general condition of the scrap yard, the rest of 62 scarp yards were distributed between two empirical parameters - 'rather environmentally hazardous' or 'rather not environmentally hazardous'. As a matter of fact, 17% of scrap yards turned out 'rather environmentally hazardous'. Conclusion Out of the scrap yards operating in Estonia, only one is compliant with the requirements set up by Directive 2000/53/EC. Another 62 appeared during the review to be sites of potential environmental pollution. In order to comply with environmental requirements and get the hazardous waste treatment license, the scrap yard owners have to invest into state-of-the-art dismantling and environment protection equipment. The main obstacle to reach the environmentally sound scrap-yard is the high investment cost and the black market for spare parts. Recommendation and Outlook As the correction of the market in end-of-life vehicle treatment started after the adoption of Directive 2000/53/EC, the environmental authorities have to look after the ongoing correction. It is because there is still a demand for cheap spare parts and it makes it attractive to dismantle the vehicles out of scrap-yards by licensees.     

Habitat inventory at a regional scale: a comparison of estimates of terrestrial Broad Habitat cover from stratified sample field survey and full census field survey for Wales, UK

Estimates of terrestrial Broad Habitat cover for Wales from the Countryside Survey 2000 stratified sample field mapping programme in Britain are compared with the findings of a full census field mapping project, the Habitat Survey of Wales. The Countryside Survey sampling regime comprised a stratified random sample of 1 km squares [corrected] covering <0.5% of the land surface. Comparative assessment indicates that although few of the sample-derived estimates for individual Broad Habitats are within 30% of the full census survey results, relative extents accord with data from the complete census survey for all Broad Habitats apart from Arable & Horticultural. The accuracy of this estimate is improved when the national boundary of Wales is taken into account in the sample stratification scheme. It is suggested that cultural land-use differences between countries render cropland habitat extent less predictable from physical environmental parameters than semi-natural habitat extent. It is also shown that the precision of sample-derived cover estimates is influenced by habitat pattern: the error term associated with habitats of broadly equal extent is greater for those with the most clumped distributions.     

PCR-DGGE研究Carrousel 2000氧化沟工艺调试过程中的微生物多样性

收集Carrousel 2000型氧化沟工艺启动过程中活性污泥样品,直接提取微生物的基因组DNA并纯化,然后对细菌16S rDNA的V3高变区进行PCR扩增和DGGE分离,通过比较DGGE图谱的相似性来研究工艺调试过程中微生物种群的变化情况.研究表明,活性污泥中具有非常丰富的微生物种群.调试初期水质波动对氧化沟中微生物种群的影响非常明显,但接种的成熟活性污泥中微生物种群能够很快适应新型氧化沟工艺的结构及水力特性.调试从4月开始,4月氧化沟中微生物种群相似性Cs最大值为68.9%,5~6月Cs最大值为70.8%,8月Cs最大值为73.0%,可见氧化沟中微生物种群相似性逐渐增加,直至稳定.在此过程中,系统对COD、氨氮的处理效果同步提高并趋于稳定.综合分析好氧活性污泥在氧化沟中驯化期为2个月.图4表4参12     

客户——服务器结构下环境信息系统的开发与集成

本文概述了环境信息系统的功能和发展，介绍了９０年代出现并在国际上占据信息系统主流平台的客户／服务器计算机体系结构，提出了客户／服务器结构下环境信息系统的开发与集成方法，并介绍了基于客户／服务器结构、覆盖我国２７个省的中国省级环境信息系统的开发情况。     

Matches and mismatches between conservation investments and biodiversity values in the European Union

Recently, the European Commission adopted a new strategy to halt the loss of biodiversity. Member states are expected to favor a more effective collection and redistribution of European Union (EU) funds under the current Multiannual Financial Framework for 2014–2020. Because of the large spatial variation in the distribution of biodiversity and conservation needs at the continental scale, EU instruments should ensure that countries with higher biodiversity values get more funds and resources for the conservation than other countries. Using linear regressions, we assessed the association between conservation investments and biodiversity values across member states, accounting for a variety of conservation investment indicators, taxonomic groups (including groups of plants, vertebrates, and invertebrates), and indicators of biodiversity value. In general, we found clear overall associations between conservation investments and biodiversity variables. However, some countries received more or less investment than would be expected based on biodiversity values in those countries. We also found that the extensive use of birds as unique indicators of conservation effectiveness may lead to biased decisions. Our results can inform future decisions regarding funding allocation and thus improve distribution of EU conservation funds.