Energy forecasting and atmospheric CO2 perspectives: two worlds ignore each other

Macroeconomic models predict that the global primary energy demand will increase by a factor of 2–4 by the year 2050. In contrast, climate analyses made by the IPCC claim that CO₂ emissions in 2050 should not exceed the values of 1990 or even be 20% lower. By 2100 emissions should be reduced to one third of the present value. The common wisdom to deal with these opposing trends is the concept of de-carbonization, i.e., the continuous decrease of the carbon emission per unit energy utilization. De-carbonization rates needed to compensate for the growing demand while keeping the CO₂-emissions constant should at least be 2% per year compared to actual values of 0.3%. The potential of different de-carbonization rate measures is analyzed. It is argued that the goal can only be met if per capita energy utilization in the industrialized countries is significantly reduced from their typical level of 5000–10 000 W. As a realistic target we suggest 2000 Watt per capita, the present global average. This would leave expansion capacity for the developing countries which presently have per capita demand between 300 and 1000 W. Based on the example of Switzerland it is shown that the two key issues to attain this goal are the quality of buildings and the demand for mobility. It is concluded that the conversion of the present energy system into a 2000 W system is neither limited by technology nor by finances but by the acceptance of a new life style in which energy is used more efficiently and more intelligently than today. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

火电厂烟塔合一和烟囱排放大气环境影响比较——以宝鸡第二发电厂为例

以宝鸡第二发电厂间接空冷机组为例,分别采用德国AUSTAL2000大气预测模式与美国AERMOD大气预测模式,对烟塔合一和烟囱两种排放方式的大气环境影响进行分析预测,并分析了地形因素对预测结果的影响。通过对比分析得知,烟塔合一排放的地面浓度分布较分散,而烟囱排放造成的地面浓度分布较集中。考虑地形影响时采用AUSTAL2000计算的烟塔合一地面浓度比AERMOD计算的烟囱小,不考虑地形时则反之。     

子密钥数据库安全加密算法研究

探讨数据库的加密特点及其加密方法,并详细介绍一种类似DES(数据加密标准)的分组加密算法———子密钥数据库加密算法;同时分析和讨论如何实现数据库加密、解密以及更新;以微软数据库SQLServer2000为例,介绍数据库加密算法的实现过程,该实例应用广泛,在信息管理系统安全、电子商务等领域有很大的借鉴作用。     

2000年全球重大自然灾害概述

２０００年是全球自然灾害经济损失较为一般的年份。根据收集到的全球自然灾害记录的数据，客观地对全球主要自然灾害的特征和分布特点进行了分析，并对其成因进行了探讨．     

Excel 2000的应用研究-统计学生成绩

本文以Excel 2000统计学生全班成绩表为例,介绍基本的Excel输入资料、统计成绩(计算总分、计算平均分、计算最高分最低分、排列名次)、制作图表等功能.     

交通环境Y2K问题

综述了包括中国计算机２０００年问题的现实情况，交通环境Ｙ２Ｋ问题情况，Ｙ２Ｋ有关法律问题以及防范计算机病毒攻击。     

Carrousel 2000氧化沟在矿区生活污水处理中的应用

主要阐述了Carrousel氧化沟的结构、工艺机理,并介绍了此工艺的实例及主要技术参数.     

An Endangered Longhorn Beetle Associated with Old Oaks and Its Possible Role as an Ecosystem Engineer

Abstract:  For more than 10 years, ecologists have been discussing the concept of ecosystem engineering (i.e., nontrophic interactions of an organism that alters the physical state of its environment and affects other species). In conservation biology, the functional role of species is of interest because persistence of some species may be necessary for maintaining an entire assemblage with many threatened species. The great capricorn ( Cerambyx cerdo ), an endangered beetle listed in the European Union's Habitats Directive, has suffered a dramatic decline in the number of populations and in population sizes in Central Europe over the last century. The damage caused by C. cerdo larvae on sound oak trees has considerable effects on the physiological characteristics of these trees. We investigated the impacts of these effects on the species richness and heterogeneity of the saproxylic beetle assemblage on oaks. We compared the catches made with flight interception traps on 10 oaks colonized and 10 oaks uncolonized by C. cerdo in a study area in Lower Saxony (Germany). Our results revealed a significantly more species-rich assemblage on the trees colonized by C. cerdo . Colonized trees also harbored more red-listed beetle species. Our results suggest that an endangered beetle species can alter its own habitat to create favorable habitat conditions for other threatened beetle species. Efforts to preserve C. cerdo therefore have a positive effect on an entire assemblage of insects, including other highly endangered species. On the basis of the impact C. cerdo seems to have on the saproxylic beetle assemblage, reintroductions might be considered in regions where the species has become extinct.     

基于WEBGIS的地震灾情快速评估系统研究

快速进行地震灾情评估对地震应急响应与救援工作具有重要意义。鉴于当前GIS在地震灾情快速评估中数据利用程度低、难于管理与共享、可互操作性差的不足,利用WEBGIS的基本框架及主要技术优势,构建了基于WEBGIS的地震灾情快速评估系统,提出了系统的设计思想、体系结构和功能结构。采用ArcGISServer作为系统的框架平台,结合ASP.NET技术,实现了信息查询、地震影响场、损失评估和应急准备的相应功能模块,极大提高了地震应急的信息化水平。     

矿产资源人口承载力研究

本文建立了矿产资源人口承载力分析的指标体系与计算模型,并对现有资源和预测资源的人口承载力进行了定量计算和分析;确定了２０００年、２０１０年的矿产资源人口承载数量。