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区域水环境污染预警系统的建立 总被引:16,自引:0,他引:16
深入分析水环境污染预警系统的目的,结构,实现以及各子系统的耦合,提出区域水环境污染预警系统应由区域内多个主要预警中心组成,每个预警中心包括通讯子系统,技术支持子系统,应急风险分析和决策支持子系统等。区域水环境污染预警系统的实现由实时处理和离线处理2个部分组成,前者包括现场流量,蒸发,降雨实时信息的收集,数据的传递和接收,预警模型计算和输出,决策管理,后者包括历史数据和区域特征输入,预警模式选择;参数率定等。目前建立预警系统面临的主要困难在于实时信息的获取和系统不确定性分析方法,相应地,对系统的持续改进也就是要加强信息交流,提高模型的识别能力,扩展系统的评价与决策功能等。 相似文献
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IntroductionAnalyzing key factors of motorcycle accidents is an effective method to reduce fatalities and improve road safety. Association Rule Mining (ARM) is an efficient data mining method to identify critical factors associated with injury severity. However, the existing studies have some limitations in applying ARM: (a) Most studies determined parameter thresholds of ARM subjectively, which lacks objectiveness and efficiency; (b) Most studies only listed rules with high parameter thresholds, while lacking in-depth analysis of multiple-item rules. Besides, the existing studies seldom conducted a spatial analysis of motorcycle accidents, which can provide intuitive suggestions for policymakers. Method: To address these limitations, this study proposes an ARM-based framework to identify critical factors related to motorcycle injury severity. A method for parameter optimization is proposed to objectively determine parameter thresholds in ARM. A method of factor extraction is proposed to identify individual key factors from 2-item rules and boosting factors from multiple-item rules. Geographic information system (GIS) is adopted to explore the spatial relationship between key factors and motorcycle injury severity. Results and conclusions: The framework is applied to a case study of motorcycle accidents in Victoria, Australia. Fifteen attributes are selected after data preprocessing. 0.03 and 0.7 are determined as the best thresholds of support and confidence in ARM. Five individual key factors and four boosting factors are identified to be related to fatal injury. Spatial analysis is conducted by GIS to present hot spots of motorcycle accidents. The proposed framework has been validated to have better performance on parameter optimization and rule analysis in ARM. Practical applications: The hot spots of motorcycle accidents related to fatal factors are presented in GIS maps. Policymakers can refer to those maps straightforwardly when decision making. This framework can be applied to various kinds of traffic accidents to improve the performance of severity analysis. 相似文献
515.
Introduction: This study addressed relative injury risk among Norwegian farmers, who are mostly self-employed and run small farm enterprises. The aim was to explore the relative importance of individual, enterprise, and work environment risks for occupational injury and to discuss the latent conditions for injuries using sociotechnical system theory. Method: Injury report and risk factors were collected through a survey among Norwegian farm owners in November 2012. The response rate was 40% (n = 2,967). Annual work hours were used to calculate injury rates within groups. Poisson regression using the log of hours worked as the offset variable allowed for the modeling of adjusted rate ratios for variables predictive of injury risk. Finally, safety climate measures were introduced to assess potential moderating effects on risk. Results: Results showed that the most important risk factors for injuries were the design of the workplace, type of production, and off-farm work hours. The main results remained unchanged when adding safety climate measures, but the measures moderated the injury risk for categories of predominant production and increased the risk for farmers working with family members and/or employees. An overall finding is how the risk factors were interrelated. Conclusions: The study identified large structural diversities within and between groups of farmers. The study drew attention to operating conditions rather than individual characteristics. The farmer’s role (managerial responsibility) versus regulation and safety climate is important for discussions of injury risk. Practical Applications: We need to study sub-groups to understand how regulation and structural changes affect work conditions and management within different work systems, conditioned by production. It is important to encourage actors in the political-economic system to become involved in issues that were found to affect the safety of farmers. 相似文献
516.
The numerous formulated products which are introduced to the market consist of chemical ingredients that may cause various safety and health hazards to the consumers. Therefore, it is extremely important to practice a systematic methodology to formulate products with acceptable safety and health performances. This work presents an index-based methodology to assess the safety and health hazards of the ingredients during the early formulation stage of product design. Hence, new inherent safety and health sub-indexes are introduced to improve the current safety and health hazards that are needed in formulated product design. The inherent safety and health sub-indexes are assigned with scores based on the degree of potential hazards. A higher score indicates a higher safety risk or severe health effect, and vice versa. The proposed methodology will greatly assist the users to identify the adverse safety and health effects caused by the ingredients. Hence, it is pivotal to eliminate or reduce the safety and health impacts from product usage. A case study on common ingredients used in the formulation of paint is presented on this study to describe the proposed method. 相似文献
517.
洪金盛 《中国安全科学学报》1995,(Z2)
对安全科学理论中的安全、安全技术、安全系统、安全性与危险性、危险墒与危险度、安全管理与安全信息、安全本质与安全本质化等概念提出了新认识。 相似文献
518.
赵志浩 《中国人口.资源与环境》1991,(2)
山东是人口和资源大省,当前面临着人口、资源与环境三大问题,为了谋求经济社会持续、稳定、协调发展,要提高对人口、资源、环境三者关系再认识,将它作为复杂的巨系统进行分析、研究,并制定相应的政策和措施,各级领导必须强化人口、资源与环境意识和目标责任制,提高管理水平,以促进未来发展。 相似文献
519.
企业现代化安全管理技术的探讨 总被引:6,自引:2,他引:4
以系统论、信息论、控制论作指导,综合运用安全系统工程有关技术,结合企业现场安全管理实际,提出以危险源辨识为基础,狠抓系统危险控制为核心,进行安全检查改革,危险预知活动和标准化作业,安全评价为控制机制的一整套企业现代化安全管理模式,并开发了系统动力学安全评价模型12种有关计算机软件。所获成果既可作为大中型企业自主安全管理,实施危险控制有效手段,又为主管部门进行宏观安全管理工作,实施劳动安全监察提供一种有效的新方法。 相似文献
520.
安全工程学科建设与专业建设 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
分析了目前我国安全工程学科建设和专业建设中存在的问题,提出了我国安全工程学科建设和专业建设的一些设想和看法。 相似文献