Projecting landscape changes in southern Chile: Simulation of human and natural processes driving land transformation

We describe a simulation model representing the most important human and natural factors driving land use and cover changes (LUCC) in southern Chile. We evaluate the model by examining its ability to simulate LUCC observed over the past three decades, conduct a sensitivity analysis of simulated trends to changes in important model parameters, and use the model to project likely landscape transformations over the next decade under “as usual,” “pessimistic,” and four “optimistic” scenarios. The model consists of five submodels representing LUCC on two distinct soil formations (volcanic ash and gleysols) and four major land use categories: native forest, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land. Land use and cover sub-categories include old growth forests, secondary forests, and low and flooded shrubland. The model simulated well general historic trends in forest cover, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land: from a forest-dominated landscape in 1976 to a landscape dominated by shrubland and agricultural land by 2007. Forest loss, forest degradation by logging and clearing for agriculture were the most important direct drivers of LUCC: forest logging and clearing were most important from 1976 to 1985, whereas after 1985 logging for firewood, driven by population growth, was most important. Sensitivity analysis indicated that model projections of general trends in the main land use and cover categories were not overly sensitive to changes in important model parameters, although further study is necessary to improve our estimates of the proportion of pasture requirements supplied by clearing low shrubland. Projections of LUCC suggested that a reduced amount of secondary forest would be left by 2017 if no actions are taken to reduce forest loss (“as usual”). Increasing population (“pessimistic scenario”) resulted in similar trajectories than those predicted by the as usual scenario, whereas reducing logging for firewood and increasing forest recruitment from shrubland could reduce loss of native forest by nearly one-third (“optimistic scenarios”). Surprisingly, shrubland exhibited the most complex and influential dynamics in all scenarios, being the immediate outcome of forest loss and the main long-term source of land for agriculture, urban expansion, and forest recovery. Few studies in Chile, or elsewhere, have considered the importance of this intermediate successional stage. Of the scenarios simulated, financial incentives targeted toward channeling shrubland into regenerated forest seemed most promising, although obstacles to such a management strategy exist.     

An evaluation approach using a HARA and FMEDA for the hardware SIL

Safety instrumented systems (SIS) are becoming increasingly complex, and form a growing proportion of programmable electronic parts. The IEC 61508 global standard was established to ensure the functional safety of SIS; however, it was expressed in highly macroscopic terms. The safety integrity level (SIL) is a criterion describing whether a component meets the safety requirements of a SIS. The safety requirements give a target SIL for the expected risks using hazard analysis and risk assessment (HARA). The SIL must correspond to the safety requirements. This study introduces an evaluation process for determining the hardware SIL through failure modes, effects, and diagnostic analysis (FMEDA). First, the components of the SIS subsystem are defined in terms of failure modes and effects, and then the failure rate and failure mechanism distribution are assigned to each component. The safety mode and detectability of each failure mode are determined for each component and, finally, the hardware SIL is evaluated. We perform a case study to evaluate the hardware SIL of the flame scanner system using HARA and FMEDA, where the safety requirement of the flame scanner was determined using the risk graph method. We verified that the hardware SIL of the flame scanner corresponded to the safety requirement.     

Fire and Explosion Index calculation method incorporating classified safety measure credits

Based on an analysis of two methods for the modification of the F&EI for the DOW Guide, it is found that the effects of safety measures are not classified. Moreover, the efficiency of the measures is magnified to various degrees, as the positive impact of the loss reduction measures are applied to the rate reduction of the intrinsic hazard in the evaluated unit. For this reason, a modification method using classified safety measures is proposed, in which safety measures are classified into process protection measures and loss reduction measures. The calculation of the modified F&EI involves the credit factors of process protection measures, whereas the determination of the maximum probable property damage incorporates the loss reduction measures. This method could provide more reasonable reference data for hazard units because of its more objective and reasonable evaluation results.     

Human factors applied to alarm panel modernization of nuclear control room

Human factors deal with issues related to humans, their behavior and the physical aspect of the environment in which they work. A control room is a complex system where operators perform plant operation using control systems and carry out monitoring and administrative responsibilities. For safe operation of industrial installation, the performance of the control room crew plays an important role. In this respect, a well designed control room is crucial for safe and efficient operation. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodological framework applied to nuclear control room evaluation, through participatory ergonomics, using operator activity analysis and human factors questionnaire as aid tools. We describe a case study in which the methodology framework was used in the evaluation process of a nuclear control room. The information gathered made possible a series of recommendation for the adequacy of the control room design, assisting in the safety assessment of the nuclear plant operation and justifying the alarm panel modernization.     

Small Business Owners’ Knowledge of Their Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) Legislative Responsibilities

This article reports the results of a study investigating the nature and extent of small manufacturing business owners’ knowledge of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) issues. Interviews were conducted with 33 owners of small manufacturing businesses in Sydney, Australia. Results showed that whereas the majority of owners had basic awareness of the existence of OHS legislation, they were often unaware about the extent of their legal OHS responsibilities. Owners were found to have minimal OHS training and practical OHS expertise. Lack of appropriate industry specific OHS information was found to be a major factor that inhibited the owners’ ability to deal with OHS issues effectively.     

金属压力容器水压试验声发射检测

通过对容积为504．94m3的某型号压力容器出厂前水压试验的声发射检测,分析了其在升压和保压过程中的声发射信号特征及其来源。结合AE信号参数、波形及定位图分析,对该容器进行了声发射活性评价,确定需要后续复检的强活性区域。文章为压力容器的声发射检测和安全评价提供了理论指导和参考数据。     

关于人机系统安全分析中人的因素的一些探讨

在对人机系统安全分析中，重点对人的因素进行探讨，并提出了新的见解。在人机系统中，人的生理特性和心理特性不是恒定不变的，特别在人机系统安全分析与设计时，关于人的因素必须从动态特性变化来认识     

关于环境保护行政主管部门行政执法责任制

全面实行环境行政执法责任制是保障环境法律，法规，规章有效实施的重要举措。环境行政执法责任制必须依法作出。环境保护行政主管部门应将实行环境行政执法责任制的重点放在违法行政的责任追究和赔偿制度上，同时应结合国家公务员制度加大考核力度以促进依法行政。     

企事业单位的震害预测

本文给出了企事业单位的震害预测方法。其特点是:与当地地震危险性分析和场地地震动参数相结合;把结构的整体动力计算与薄弱部位抗震构件验算和普查结果相结合;把建筑物的震害预测与震害调查和试验研究结果相结合。     

控制摩托车污染的途径

阐述了摩托车发动机污染控制技术的发展趋势，分析了不同摩托车的工作原理和结构特点，有针对性地提出了减少在用车污染的对策，根据实践经验和摩托车发动机的排放特点，探讨了如何使用催化净化技术控制排放的问题。