SOME PROBLEMS IN STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

In order to decrease the uncertainty that results in water resource planning and management studies due to the assumed recurrence of historical hydrological sequences, considerable study of stochastic processes in hydrology has taken place during the past 10 or 15 years. The general objective has been to develop a capability for generating a number of valid sequences, each of which could as resonably occur as could a recurrence of past events. A number of serious problems have been encountered, the consequence of which has been a serious lag in the application of stochastic processes to real planning and management problems. These problems include: a. an inability to generate droughts in some cases that are as extreme as have occurred historically, b. the generation of inconsistent values of stream flow at 2 locations on the same stream, c. the lack of mathematical techniques for the management of incomplete data sets, d. a great increase in the required computation for planning and management studies, and e. theoretical and computational difficulties in expanding the scope of stochastic hydrology from monthly quantities to short-period quantities. This paper discusses these problems and various approaches used in attempting their solution.     

虚拟现实技术在安全工程中的应用

论述了虚拟现实技术（ＶｉｒｔｕａｌＲｅａｌｉｔｙ）的基本原理、应用范围。结合大空间公用建筑火灾虚拟现实系统,提出了安全工程中应用虚拟现实技术的基本结构及程序设计关键技术,给出了大空间公用建筑火灾虚拟现实系统编制实例     

塔式起重机安全评判专家系统的研制

塔式起重机作为建筑施工的主要设备,在建筑等行业发挥着极其重要的作用,因而其安全问题受到各国有关部门的高度重视,但塔式起重机的事故率近年来仍未见下降,其安全问题仍然是建筑施工中的忧患之一。为此,笔者在建造了塔式起重机安全的依赖关系图的基础上,采用基于现代设计方法学的专家系统构造技术,使用ＶＩＳＵＡＬＣ＋ ＋ 开发了塔式起重机安全评判专家系统ＴＱＥＳ。该系统经全部测试通过,可对一般的塔式起重机进行安全评判     

安全等级特征量及其计算方法

指出了目前用模糊评价法确定系统的安全等级所存在的问题和不足之处。分别运用模糊随机变量理论和模糊集理论而提出了安全等级模糊随机特征量和安全等级模糊特征量的概念及其计算方法。安全等级特征量及安全等级变量,均为安全等级取值论域上的模糊子集,而并非是一个确定的点。还给出了安全等级的绝对可能性和相对可能性的计算方法。实例表明,笔者所提出的安全等级特征量及可能性的计算方法是科学的、合理的     

工业企业安全生产管理的规范化研究

根据安全系统工程原理,探讨和提出了一种被当地试点所证明、可行的工业企业安全生产综合、简便的规范化管理方法。把国家有关安全生产法律法规有机地贯穿于基础规范管理工作过程之中;建立了动态性管理模式;为积极引导企业的安全管理工作,由事故管理向预防性管理,从行政管理向依法管理,由传统管理向技术性管理的方向转变,并为促进现代企业形成自主经营,相互制约,依法管理安全生产的运行机制提供了新思路     

实施《全国生态环境建设规划》的基本思路

良好的生态环境是可持续发展的重要前提条件,为了实施好《全国生态环境建设规划》,本文从组织层面、管理层面、法规层面,提出了实施的基本措施     

The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions

Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts. Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth. The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain. Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999     

Planning for cooler cities: a plan quality evaluation for Urban Heat Island consideration

ABSTRACT

City strategic plans and enabling policies provide a framework for and inform future development across multiple scales. An exemplar city strategic plan will be one based on evidence, enabled by complementary policy outcomes, and built on the knowledge of the existing landscape. This study evaluated the plan quality of eighteen metropolitan strategic plans for city members in the 100 Resilient Cities initiative. A protocol was developed containing thirty-two indicators to assess plans capacity to act as a strategic planning tool to develop, analyse and implement strategies for the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The evaluation indicated that strategies addressing the UHI are rarely included in metropolitan plans. Strategic plans showed a lack of evidence-base to inform the potential actions. Urban warming is often linked to extreme weather events anticipated under climate change, not the UHI as a systemic and increasing phenomenon. We recommend that the pathway to addressing UHI mitigation and adaptation may lie in its nexus to aspects of climate change that concurrently can serve to support liveable and resilient cities.     

上海人口自然变动负增长与社会经济发展

1993年上海人口自然变动在全国率先进入负增长,自然增长率为-0.78‰,并将持续一个较长的时期。这是长期以来本市经济和社会发展以及计划生育工作共同作用的必然结果,其中计划生育政策的成功推行起着重要的作用。上海除了继续控制人口增长的数量外,还要调节人口规模和人口结构,大力提高人口素质,不断使人口与社会经济发展、生态平衡、资源利用等方面达到协调发展。由负增长引发的劳动力短缺和老龄化程度加剧要采取相应的对策。     

Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship

Problem: Safety climate refers to the degree to which employees believe true priority is given to organizational safety performance, and its measurement is thought to provide an “early warning” of potential safety system failure(s). However, researchers have struggled over the last 25 years to find empirical evidence to demonstrate actual links between safety climate and safety performance.Method: A safety climate measure was distributed to manufacturing employees at the beginning of a behavioral safety initiative and redistributed one year later.Results: Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that perceptions of the importance of safety training were predictive of actual levels of safety behavior. The results also demonstrate that the magnitude of change in perceptual safety climate scores will not necessarily match actual changes (r=0.56, n.s.) in employee's safety behavior.Discussion: This study obtained empirical links between safety climate scores and actual safety behavior. Confirming and contradicting findings within the extant safety climate literature, the results strongly suggest that the hypothesized climate-behavior-accident path is not as clear cut as commonly assumed.Summary: A statistical link between safety climate perceptions and safety behavior will be obtained when sufficient behavioral data is collected.Impact on Industry: The study further supports the use of safety climate measures as useful diagnostic tools in ascertaining employee's perceptions of the way that safety is being operationalized.