Vector-Borne Diseases, Development & Climate Change

Vector-borne diseases are feared to extend their range in a future where global warming has occurred. There is considerable concern about scourges such as malaria re-invading currently temperate regions and reaching into higher altitudes in Africa. In this paper we examine the various factors thought to determine potential infectivity of malaria, and its actual outbreak in the context of a dynamic integrated assessment model. We quantify: (i) the role of demographics in placing a larger population in harms way; (ii) the role of climate change in increasing the potential geographic range and severity of the risk of infection; and (iii) the role of economic and social development in limiting the occurrence of malaria. We then explore the climate and economic implications of various climate policies in their effectiveness to limit potential infectivity of malaria. In illustration of these issues we present the climate-related and economics-related impacts of unilateral CO₂ control by OECD on incidence of malaria in non-OECD nations. The model presented here, although highly stylized in its representation of socio-economic factors, provides strong evidence of the role of socio-economic factors in determination of malaria incidence. The case study offers insights into unintended adverse consequences of well-meaning climate policies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于机械物理法的废旧电路板回收经济性分析

废旧电路板的有效回收对保护环境、实现资源的优化配置和社会可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。通过分析废旧电路板的回收方法,给出了机械物理法中3种典型回收方案的工艺流程,建立了其回收经济性评价模型,量化评估回收成本与收益。结合一个具体的回收实例,运用经济性评价模型对其回收成本与收益进行具体分析,验证了评价模型的可靠性,实现了回收方案的优选。最后,对提高废旧电路板回收经济性提出一些建议。     

Research on the Knowledge System Framework of Eco-industrial Engineering

With intensified contradiction between the rapid development of modern industry and the carrying capacity of natural environment,coordinating the relationship between economic benefits and ecological benefits is a significant issue to be solved for modern industrial engineering.This paper firstly conducts the comparative analysis between traditional and ecological industry as well as traditional and modern industrial engineering,and indicates that eco-industrial engineering is an inevitable choice for sustainable development of modern industrial engineering;Then,based on industrial ecology,environmental economics and sustainable development theory,the connotation and definition of ecoindustrial engineering are proposed,and the theoretical and practical development of the concepts of eco-industrial engineering are further investigated.Furthermore,the research subject,research content,academic system architecture and evaluation methods of eco-industrial engineering are discussed.Finally,combining the current scientific and technological development,we put forward the important scientific value and practical significance of constructing eco-industrial engineering for the utilization of these concepts.     

2000年以来中国城市化的发展格局及其与经济发展的相关性

基于对城市化概念的认识,通过测算中国各城市的人口、经济和空间城市化率及其增长速度,运用Arcgis93支持下的热点分析方法,考察2000~2008年中国城市单元城市化水平增长的空间分布特征,揭示了中国城市化的空间模式,认为2000年以来中国的城市化发展热点仍然在东部沿海,主要围绕环渤海和珠三角两大城市化热点城市群,向东北、西北、西南等冷点区中心辐射、梯度推移;城市化的发展速度与地区经济发展水平有一定的空间相关性,但与经济增长格局有较大偏差,现有经济发展水平对于城市化的拉动作用相对经济增长更为明显;城市化空间格局的形成受自然、历史、政策、经济、人口等诸多因素的影响,其作用机制主要包含政府主导的“自上而下”和市场主导的“自下而上”两种道路,未来政府作用将逐渐弱化,推力的主动力地位将进一步强化     

生态、经济协同发展的滨湖区空间管制分区研究——以巢湖东段为例

生态敏感性极高的滨湖区正面临着人类开发带来的环境威胁。旨在通过滨湖区空间管制,处理好保护与开发的关系,避免和减少开发过程中可能带来的负面环境问题,实现滨湖区持续、健康发展。应用模糊评价与GIS空间分析方法,首先从生态环境敏感性、经济发展潜力两大方面出发,构建了包括2项I 级指标、9项Ⅱ级指标和32项Ⅲ级指标的滨湖区空间管制分区评价指标体系;应用GIS空间分析模块,以500 m网格为基本评价单元,分别进行滨湖区的生态敏感性、经济发展潜力以及二者的叠加评价。结果显示：滨湖区从单元上可确定4类开发功能取向（适宜、较适宜、限制、禁止建设）,从区域生态、经济协同发展要求下,从满足生产、生活和生态的需要,宜将滨湖区划定不同功能的空间管制区     

江苏沿海地区经济联系及物流要素流量空间特征分析

随着经济一体化的发展,城市间经济联系日益加强,必然引起城市间物流需求联系的增加。借鉴引力模型在经济联系中的应用,分析了江苏沿海地区城市间经济联系强度。结果表明：城市间经济联系的强度随着空间距离的递增而递减;并以区域中心城市为中心,向外呈辐射状圈层构造,呈现3个层次结构;沿海中心城市对经济联系腹地间的竞争更加明显。立足运输地理学网络分析基本原理, 从客流、货流和信息流等流量,流向等空间属性进一步探讨城市间的经济联系特征,江苏沿海地区市际间货流量连云港 南通占主要地位;客流量连云港 南通一线最大;城市间信息传递不畅,信息流量较弱。针对城市间经济联系及物流要素流量的空间特征,提出了加强区域经济合作的策略与建议     

安徽省合肥和芜湖市对外经济联系量与地缘经济关系匹配分析

引入克鲁格曼指数、建成区面积、人口素质权重系数等指标修正了以往的引力模型,利用修正的引力模型确定城市的对外经济联系量。运用欧氏距离法确定城市间的地缘经济关系,并分析其形成的原因。对经济联系量与地缘经济关系进行匹配,并对匹配结果进行原因分析,根据不同的匹配情况提出城市未来发展战略。研究结果显示：(1)合肥市的地缘经济关系互补性大于竞争性,而芜湖是竞争性大于互补性;在地缘经济关系的形成过程中,产品资源向外地的流动能力指标对形成城市间竞争性或互补性的贡献较大。(2)合肥、芜湖两市的地缘经济关系和外联经济联系量的匹配结果都不理想,属于强、较强经济联系量与强、较强互补地缘经济关系的理想匹配结果较少;城市间产业结构的差异性和交通的便捷性成为影响匹配结果的一个原因。增强经济联系量、调整地缘经济战略、优化匹配关系是城市的首要任务     

环境公平问题既有研究述评及研究框架思考

环境不公平问题,日益成为经济发展现实中的一个重要问题,也日益成为环境经济学的一个着重关注领域,但既有的研究尚缺乏系统性和理论基础。本文系统梳理了国内外关于环境公平定义的代表性观点,在此基础上提出了作者对环境公平的认识。然后笔者在各种形式的环境不公平研究(包括不同群体间的环境不公平问题的研究和不同区域间的环境不公平问题的研究)、环境公平问题的研究方法(主要指基于地理信息系统获取相应的变量数据进而用计量模型的方法和借鉴收入差距的分析方法)等既有研究进行梳理和简要评述的基础上,提出:环境不公平问题的实质是经济利益不公平问题的转化与延伸,应在这一认识前提下来探讨环境公平问题、来建立环境公平问题的研究框架。进而提出:以经济学方法讨论利益主体之间如何实现公平享有环境利益、公平分配使用环境容量、公平承受环境破坏后果、公平分担环境维护责任、公平分担环境治理成本,是环境公平问题研究的主要方向。     

The ecological traces of growth: economic growth,liberalization, increased consumption—and sustainable urban development?

Using the development of the building stock and physical infrastructure as an example, this article highlights the difficulties in combining continuous economic growth in wealthy countries with the requirements of environmentally sustainable development. There are clear limits as to how far we can get by means of ‘eco-efficiency’, and the effect of a transition to less environmentally harmful types of consumption is not sufficient if the consumption volume keeps on increasing. This is particularly evident for societal processes such as the construction of buildings and the development of physical infrastructure. Increased consumption is both a result of and a precondition for economic growth. The development of the building stock and physical infrastructure in cities is a case showing that economic growth—at any rate, in the longer term—can hardly be consistent with the preservation of species, ecosystems and food-production resources. The growth in the building stock also makes it increasingly difficult to limit energy use and reduce carbon–dioxide emissions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

经济发展与农业面源污染关系的协整检验——基于三峡库区重庆段1992-2009年数据的分析

运用协整检验和Granger因果检验方法,考察了三峡库区重庆段1992-2009年经济发展与农业面源污染之间的相互关系。研究结果表明:①经济增长是影响三峡库区重庆段农业面源污染的主要原因,且种植业、养殖业和农村生活三大类污染源排放量与农村经济发展之间都具有协整关系;②短期内农业生产总值的变化引起三类农业污染源排放量的同方向变动,长期来看,农村经济发展对农业面源污染有减缓作用,这与传统的环境—经济增长库兹涅茨倒U型曲线所揭示的一般规律相同;③农业经济的发展和种植业、养殖业的污染排放量具有双向的因果关系,但是经济发展是农村生活污染排放量增长的原因,农村生活污染排放量不是经济增长的原因,它们之间是单向因果关系。因此,我们要密切关注库区经济增长对环境质量带来的负面效应,必须依赖科学技术进步,提高种植业中化肥、农药、农膜和秸秆等的利用率,根据当地农业发展的特点以及与河流的远近,规划好农业、林业、畜牧业的结构,大力发展环保型、生态型农业,以减轻农业面源污染,实现农业经济增长与保持环境质量之间的相互协调。