我国部分保健与安全活动经济代价的初步评价

社会中的许多卫生保健活动都需要在经济代价和人的安全健康之间作出权衡。这种权衡往往需要确定危害人们健康和安全的经济价值。笔者从人力资本和支付意愿两个方面,对我国卫生、环保、安全有关的经济数据进行了评价分析。在人力资本方面,考虑了人均终生的国民生产总值、国民收入、消费水平、职工工资、城乡居民收入。在支付意愿方面,考虑了医疗救治的费用、社会保险费用、司法赔偿、职业劳动保护费用、降低辐射危害的费用以及政府采用数值等。根据这些分析评价,笔者建议：我国卫生保健有关的人的社会经济价值,若以１９９０ 年可比价格计算,分布在（９～４０）万元之间,适中的估计为２０ 万元。     

简论安全管理的警示职能——墨菲定律的启示

通过对墨菲定律的研究,得到两点启示,进而论证了安全管理必须发挥警示职能的科学道理,同时也表明了发挥警示职能对于提高安全管理水平的重要作用     

煤矿事故中“安全流变-突变论”的研究

“安全流变－ 突变论”是安全科学理论的一个新内容。通过用此理论,对煤矿几类典型的事故分析和综合,进一步认识事故发生、发展以及结束的机理,获得与事故密切联系的几个关键状态点,由这些状态点可以预测、预报事故。     

CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY EVOLUTION AND OVERBANK FLOW IN THE GEORGIA PIEDMONT1

ABSTRACT: Historic changes in stream channel morphology were investigated in the Georgia Piedmont to better understand the hydrologic processes and functioning of the region's riverine systems. USGS gaging station data and channel geomorphology data were collected from thirty study sites in the Upper Oconee River Basin for flood frequency analysis. Historic and modern (i.e., present-day) channel capacity discharge (i.e., overbank flow) was calculated using Manning's equation and historic channel cross-section records. The recurrence interval for overbank flow was estimated for each site from flood frequency data. Results indicate that channel expansion has occurred throughout the basin, especially in upper reaches. Recurrence intervals for modern overbank events were variable and generally high ranging from < 2 to > 500 years for first to third order streams. They were less variable and lower for fourth and fifth order streams, ranging from < 2 to 3 years. Potential depositional thresholds were identified that exemplify the complex response of sediment distribution patterns throughout the basin. Results indicate overbank flows occur less frequently now than they once did due to historic accelerated sedimentation and subsequent channel expansion. One application of these findings is that these basin processes are likely applicable across the region and may impact the hydrologic functioning of associated Piedmont riverine wetlands that depend on flooding regimes.     

HYDROLOGIC DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS OF CONSTRUCTED WETLANDS FOR URBAN STORMWATER RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: The successful design of constructed wetlands requires a continuous supply of water or vegetation that can withstand drought conditions. Having a constant water source is the best alternative to insure species diversity throughout the season. Consequently, detention structure designs should be based on times between events as well as on hydrologic return periods, since between events is when most evaporation and infiltration losses are likely to occur. In arid or semi-arid environments, this is a difficult process because of long interevent times and seasonal changes in precipitation patterns. This discussion is predicated on the assumption that phytoplankton, epiphytic algae, and emergent vegetation require moist conditions to be effective at removing nutrients, metals and other pollutants. There are drought tolerant species of vegetation that can be used in constructed wetlands but it may take several days to re-establish the attached bacteria communities necessary for optimum pollutant removal. This paper examines a stochastic framework to examine the probability of extended dry periods based on historic rainfall data. The number of consecutive dry days is selected for a specified level of assurance. By multiplying this value by the sum of daily system losses, an overall pond volume can be determined that ensures a minimum depth of water. To illustrate the utility of the approach, the method is applied to a site in Spokane, Washington.     

臭氧对农业生态系统影响的综合评估：以长江三角洲为例

如何评价和预测近地层臭氧(O3)浓度持续升高对作物的影响是污染生态学研究的热点之一.依据改进的开顶式气室(Open-top chamber,OTC)实验资料,建立了我国长江三角洲地区O3与3种典型农作物(水稻、冬小麦和油菜)的剂量-响应(Dose-response)函数,并对该地区2003年作物产量损失进行了综合估算.研究结果表明:1)水稻、冬小麦和油菜3种作物的O3临界水平值分别为7.434、2.280和7.328ppm·h,冬小麦最为敏感;2)O3污染已造成该地区较为严重的产量损失,2003年水稻、冬小麦和油菜分别减产3.04%、17.08%和5.92%,经济损失达到5.76、7.68和2.61亿元.长江三角洲地区高浓度O3污染必须引起足够的重视。     

广西国家重点生态功能区县域生态环境与社会经济协调发展关联分析

以广西国家重点生态功能区县域为研究单元,对2015—2020年县域经济社会发展水平和生态环境质量综合水平进行评估,通过权重赋值计算生态环境-社会经济综合实力,综合判断生态环境保护与社会经济发展的协调性。结果表明：研究区域体量小,人均可支配收入低;县域社会经济总体呈正向发展态势,发展速度相对缓慢,低于全区平均县域水平;生态环境综合质量呈现波动变化,部分县域生态环境综合质量增长率为负值;15个县域生态环境质量与社会经济发展为协调,10个县域为基本协调,2个县域处于调和等级。     

Dynamic risk analysis of offloading process in floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) platform using Bayesian Network

The growing demand for natural gas has pushed oil and gas exploration to more isolated and previously untapped regions around the world where construction of LNG processing plants is not always a viable option. The development of FLNG will allow floating plants to be positioned in remote offshore areas and subsequently produce, liquefy, store and offload LNG in the one position. The offloading process from an FLNG platform to a gas tanker can be a high risk operation. It consists of LNG being transferred, in hostile environments, through loading arms or flexible cryogenic hoses into a carrier which then transports the LNG to onshore facilities. During the carrier's offloading process at onshore terminals, it again involves risk that may result in an accident such as collision, leakage and/or grounding. It is therefore critical to assess and monitor all risks associated with the offloading operation. This study is aimed at developing a novel methodology using Bayesian Network (BN) to conduct the dynamic safety analysis for the offloading process of an LNG carrier. It investigates different risk factors associated with LNG offloading procedures in order to predict the probability of undesirable accidents. Dynamic failure assessment using Bayesian theory can estimate the likelihood of the occurrence of an event. It can also estimate the failure probability of the safety system and thereby develop a dynamic failure assessment tool for the offloading process at a particular FLNG plant. The main objectives of this paper are: to understand the LNG offloading process, to identify hazardous events during offloading operation, and to perform failure analysis (modelling) of critical accidents and/or events. Most importantly, it is to evaluate and compare risks. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to validate the risk models and to study the behaviour of the most influential factors. The results have indicated that collision is the most probable accident to occur during the offloading process of an LNG carrier at berth, which may have catastrophic consequences.     

公平和效率维度下中国省际碳权分配原则分析

区域碳权分配原则决定了中国省际碳减排的压力,也是激励各地区转向清洁能源及减排技术创新的基础。本文运用非径向方向性距离函数(NDDF)测算了2011-2014年中国省际全要素碳排放效率(TFC)与技术差距比(CTGR),以分析各地区基于效率最优的碳减排潜力(CRC),进而确定中国区域碳权分配原则。结果表明,各地区减排潜力呈现出与经济发展水平相似的空间分布特征;"十二五"期间海南与安徽两地已处于减排的前沿面,但单一的公平原则挫伤了其持续减排的积极性,而其它低效率省市短时间内无法通过技术效率提升减排能力;无论是单一的公平原则还是单一的效率原则均无法保证各地区碳减排的合理性、稳定性与持久性;而兼顾公平与效率的原则在增加绝对碳排放效率的同时,减少了地区差异。公平与效率原则的动态混合机制更符合中国省际碳减排现状,初期应遵循"公平优先,兼顾效率",随着经济企稳,应转向"效率优先,兼顾公平"。     

双赢目标约束下中国能源结构调整测算

中国碳排放的主要来源是能源消费,能源消费又是经济增长的重要驱动因素,因而如何进行能源结构调整成为我国能否如期实现经济增长和碳减排双赢目标的关键。考虑技术进步的动态条件,基于1991-2013年中国的数据,采用超越对数生产函数对我国GDP增长中不同能源要素的贡献率进行了分解,并在2020年实现双赢目标的约束下,对不同能源2014-2020年期间的增长率在技术进步动态条件下进行了估算,分析了实现双赢目标的路径条件。研究结果显示:1综合要素、煤炭、石油、天然气、非化石能源等驱动因素1991-2013年期间对GDP的年均贡献率分别为:36.38%、13.03%、16.99%、12.00%、21.60%,中国经济增长对能源投入的依赖较强;2煤炭、石油、天然气对非化石能源的替代弹性较小,可替代性较差,但非化石能源对煤炭的替代弹性从2007年开始逐步增大,同时,煤炭、石油利用的技术进步慢于非化石能源,这有利于我国双赢目标的实现;3为实现2020年的双赢目标,煤炭、石油、天然气和非化石能源2020年的投入量需要比2013年分别增长26.43%、26.92%、57.53%、64.27%,2020年的能源消费结构比例为:0.63∶0.18∶0.07∶0.12,各种能源增长幅度不同,保持平稳调整;4在双赢目标约束条件下,从非化石能源、煤炭、石油、天然气四种能源角度分析了实现该目标的路径条件。从整体上看,在技术进步推动下,到2020年中国可以实现经济年均增长7%、碳排放强度下降44%的双赢目标。