中庭火灾烟流相似模型

将燃烧着的火焰视为具有一定发热量的热源、不计辐射传热的影响 ,建立中庭火灾烟气流动控制微分方程组 ,并导出模型实验相似准则 ;提出模型与原型局部相似的模型律 ;忽略围护结构热相似 ,建立 1/ 8模型试验台 ;开展中庭火灾烟流填充过程模型实验 ,模型实验与原型实验结果吻合。研究表明 :理论模型律是合理的 ,采用小比例的相似模型实验 ,研究中庭火灾烟流的发展是可行的     

Energy dissipation estimates in oscillating grid setup: LDV and PIV measurements

The dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy has been increasingly used as a scaling parameter to integrate microbiological accrual and metabolic rates with fluid-flow motion in natural and engineered aquatic ecosystems. The estimation of turbulent kinetic energy under field conditions and the generation of energy dissipation rates under controlled laboratory conditions with microbiological organisms are necessities required to integrate environmental/ecological laboratory protocols with a moving fluid in the environment. Turbulent fluid-flow conditions were generated in an oscillating grid setup, and turbulence variables were quantified using laser-Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and particle image velocimetry (PIV) measuring techniques. The rate of dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy in the setup ranged from 10⁻⁹ to 10⁻⁴ m²/s³ and was similar to the levels of energy dissipation commonly reported in engineered and natural aquatic ecosystems. Time-averaged velocities were close to zero with the root-mean-square velocity ratios about 1, indicating nearly isotropic fluid-flow conditions in the setup. The velocity spectra, obtained by stationary LDV measurements for the vertical and horizontal velocity components across the setup revealed the existence of inertial subrange with the frequency power scaling law of “ω ^−5/3.” The estimated Eulerian frequency spectrum followed the theoretical functional relation and confirmed the applicability of inertial dissipation method for the estimation of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rates. PIV was used for a direct estimation of dissipation by evaluating spatially distributed velocity gradients. The direct dissipation estimate in conjunction with the estimated Eulerian frequency spectrum provided evaluation of a “universal” constant, α, commonly used for the estimation of an energy dissipation rate over the inertial subrange of the Eulerian spectrum. The results demonstrated a range of values, rather than a universal constant, of α with a lognormal probability distribution for vertical and horizontal velocity components. In order to encompass a 0.955 probability range under the lognormal distribution the universal constant, α, should be in the range 2.91 ≥ α _u ≥ 0.43 and 4.44 ≥ α _w ≥ 0.42 for horizontal and vertical velocity components, respectively.     

A derivation of the statistical characteristics of forest fires

The analysis of large data sets concerning fires in various forested areas of the world has pointed out that burned areas can often be described by different power-law distributions for small, medium and large fires and that a scaling law for the time intervals separating successive fires is fulfilled. The attempts of deriving such statistical laws from purely theoretical arguments have not been fully successful so far, most likely because important physical and/or biological factors controlling forest fires were not taken into account. By contrast, the two-layer spatially extended forest model we propose in this paper encapsulates the main characteristics of vegetational growth and fire ignition and propagation, and supports the empirically discovered statistical laws. Since the model is fully deterministic and spatially homogeneous, the emergence of the power and scaling laws does not seem to necessarily require meteorological randomness and geophysical heterogeneity, although these factors certainly amplify the chaoticity of the fires. Moreover, the analysis suggests that the existence of different power-laws for fires of various scale might be due to the two-layer structure of the forest which allows the formation of different kinds of fires, i.e. surface, crown, and mixed fires.     

Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

To study potential consequences of climate-induced changes in the biotic disturbance regime at regional to national scale we integrated a model of Ips typographus (L. Scol. Col.) damages into the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN. A two-stage multivariate statistical meta-model was used to upscale stand level damages by bark beetles as simulated in the hybrid forest patch model PICUS v1.41. Comparing EFISCEN simulations including the new bark beetle disturbance module against a 15-year damage time series for Austria showed good agreement at province level (R2 between 0.496 and 0.802). A scenario analysis of climate change impacts on bark beetle-induced damages in Austria’s Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] forests resulted in a strong increase in damages (from 1.33 Mm3 a⁻¹, period 1990–2004, to 4.46 Mm3 a⁻¹, period 2095–2099). Studying two adaptive management strategies (species change) revealed a considerable time-lag between the start of adaptation measures and a decrease in simulated damages by bark beetles.     

Resource protection for waterbirds in Chesapeake bay

Many living resources in the Chesapeake Bay estuary have deteriorated over the past 50 years. As a result, many governmental committees, task forces, and management plans have been established. Most of the recommendations for implementing a bay cleanup focus on reducing sediments and nutrient flow into the watershed. We emphasize that habitat requirements other than water quality are necessary for the recovery of much of the bay's avian wildlife, and we use a waterbird example as illustration. Some of these needs are: (1) protection of fast-eroding islands, or creation of new ones by dredge deposition to improve nesting habitat for American black ducks(Anas rubripes), great blue herons(Ardea herodias), and other associated wading birds; (2) conservation of remaining brackish marshes, especially near riparian areas, for feeding black ducks, wading birds, and wood ducks(Aix sponsa); (3) establishment of sanctuaries in open-water, littoral zones to protect feeding and/or roosting areas for diving ducks such as canvasbacks(Aythya valisineria) and redheads(Aythya americana), and for bald eagles(Haliaeetus leucocephalus); and (4) limitation of disturbance by boaters around nesting islands and open-water feeding areas. Land (or water) protection measures for waterbirds need to include units at several different spatial scales, ranging from “points” (e.g., a colony site) to large-area resources (e.g., a marsh or tributary for feeding). Planning to conserve large areas of both land and water can be achieved following a biosphere reserve model. Existing interagency committees in the Chesapeake Bay Program could be more effective in developing such a model for wildlife and fisheries resources.     

Creation and preservation of vegetation patterns by grazing

Structural patterns of tall stands (“tussock”) and short stands (“lawn”) are observed in grazed vegetation throughout the world. Such structural vegetation diversity influences plant and animal diversity. A possible mechanism for the creation and preservation of such patterns is a positive feedback between grazing and plant palatability. Although some theoretical studies have addressed this point in a non-spatial setting, the spatial consequences of this feedback mechanism on the stability and spatial characteristics of vegetation structure patterns have not been studied.We addressed this issue by analyzing a spatially explicit individual-based plant-grazer simulation model, based on published empirical relations and the assumption of optimal foraging.In the model, the selection by the grazer of short stands (that have a higher energy content and are more palatable) is affected by traveling costs and the spatial organization of swards. Nevertheless, the most selected biomass in this type of short stands was the optimal biomass predicted by cropping and digestion constraints. As a result of the optimal foraging strategy, the grazers displayed Lévy-flight traveling behavior during the simulations with characteristic exponent μ ≈ 2.Patterns of short and tall stands created by grazing were preserved for at least a decade. Even in seasonal habitat, the spatial organization of the patterns remained relatively constant, despite fluctuations in the area of short stands. Heterogeneity of initial vegetation increased heterogeneity of the grazing-induced pattern, but did not affect its stability.The area of short stands that was preserved by grazing scaled with the herbivore mass to the power 0.4 and with the carrying capacity of the vegetation to the power −0.75.Patterns of tall and short stands can be created and perpetuated by optimally grazing ruminants, irrespective of possible underlying soil patterns. The simulations generate predictions for the stability and spatial characteristics of such structural vegetation patterns.     

Phytoplankton patchiness and their role in the modelled productivity of a large, seasonally stratified lake

Phytoplankton concentration in Lake Kinneret (Israel) has varied up to 10-fold in space and time, with horizontal patches ranging from a couple of kilometres to a basin scale. Previous studies have used a 1D model to reproduce the temporal evolution of physical and biogeochemical variables in this lake. The question that arises then is how appropriate is a 1D approach to represent the dynamic of a spatially heterogeneous system, where there are non-linear dependencies between variables. Field data, a N-P-Z model coupled to both a 1D and a 3D hydrodynamic model, a 1D diffusion-reaction equation and scaling analysis are used to understand the role of spatial variability, expressed as phytoplankton patchiness, in the modelling of primary production. The analysis and results are used to investigate the effect of horizontal variability in the forcing and in the free mechanisms that affect the growth of patterns. The study shows that the use of averaged properties in a 1D approach may produce misleading results in the presence of localised patches, in terms of both concentration and composition of phytoplankton. The reason lies in the fact that the calibration process of ecological parameters in the 1D model appears to be site and process specific. That is, it depends on the pattern's characteristics and the underlying physical processes causing them. And this is a critical point for the success of numerical simulations under spatial variability. In this study, it is also shown that a length scale based on diffusion and growth rate of phytoplankton could be used as a criterion to assess the appropriateness of the 1D assumption.     

A theory of scaling for community-based fisheries management

Community-based approaches to fisheries management has emerged as a mainstream strategy to govern dispersed, diverse and dynamic small scale fisheries. However, amplifying local community led sustainability outcomes remains an enduring challenge. We seek to fill a theoretical gap in the conceptualization of ‘scaling up community-based fisheries management’. We draw on literature of agriculture innovations to provide a framework that takes into account process-driven and structural change occurring across multiple levels of governance, as well as different phases of scaling. We hypothesize that successful scaling requires engagement with all aspects of a governing regime, coalescing a range of actors, and therefore, is an enterprise that is larger than its parts. To demonstrate where the framework offers value, we illustrate the development of community-based fisheries management in Vanuatu according to the framework’s main scaling dimensions.