A Comparison of Statistical Approaches for Predicting Stream Temperatures Across Heterogeneous Landscapes1

Abstract: Estimating stream temperatures across broad spatial extents is important for regional conservation of running waters. Although statistical models can be useful in this endeavor, little information exists to aid in the selection of a particular statistical approach. Our objective was to compare the accuracy of ordinary least‐squares multiple linear regression, generalized additive modeling, ordinary kriging, and linear mixed modeling (LMM) using July mean stream temperatures in Michigan and Wisconsin. Although LMM using low‐rank thin‐plate smoothing splines to measure the spatial autocorrelation in stream temperatures was the most accurate modeling approach; overall, there were only slight differences in prediction accuracy among the evaluated approaches. This suggests that managers and researchers can select a stream temperature modeling approach that meets their level of expertise without sacrificing substantial amounts of prediction accuracy. The most accurate models for Michigan and Wisconsin had root mean square errors of 2.0‐2.3°C, suggesting that only relatively coarse predictions can be produced from landscape‐based statistical models at regional scales. Explaining substantially more variability in stream temperatures likely will require the collection of finer‐scale hydrologic and physiographic data, which may be cost prohibitive for monitoring and assessing stream temperatures at regional scales.     

应用电性拓扑状态指数预测烷烃自燃点

建立了一个基于人工神经网络的定量结构-性质相关性模型,用于52种烷烃化合物自燃点的预测研究。应用原子类型电性拓扑状态指数作为表征分子结构特征的描述符。该指数既能表征分子的电子特性,又反映其拓扑特征,同时易于计算,并有较强的同分异构体区分能力。采用误差反向传播（BP）神经网络方法对烷烃自燃点与电性拓扑状态指数间可能存在的非线性关系进行拟合。将52种烷烃样本随机划分为训练集（30种）、验证集（8种）和测试集（14种）,并通过“试差法”确定网络的最优参数。运用最佳网络结构[64—1]对实验样本进行模拟,结果表明,多数样本的自燃点预测值与实验值符合良好,对于测试集,平均预测绝对误差为8．4℃,均方根误差为11．8,优于多元线性回归方法和传统基团贡献法所得结果。该方法的提出为工程上提供了一种根据分子结构预测有机物白燃点的有效方法。     

热解吸对污染土壤中不同形态汞的去除作用

选取贵州省万山矿区的汞污染土壤样品进行不同形态汞的热解吸去除行为研究。研究了热解吸过程中∑Hg的去除效果及动力学,以及温度和时间对污染土壤中不同形态汞的去除作用。结果表明,热解吸修复技术可有效去除土壤中的汞,土壤中∑Hg的热解吸过程符合二级动力学方程。固定热解吸时间在10 min时,随着热解吸温度的升高,土壤中水溶态汞、盐酸溶态汞和碱溶态汞含量呈现先下降后上升再下降的趋势,王水溶汞和盐酸溶态汞始终呈现下降趋势,说明不同形态的汞之间发生了转化。热解吸温度为250℃时,随着热解吸时间的增加,环境风险大的水溶态汞、盐酸溶态汞、碱溶态汞和硝酸溶态汞的去除率大幅增加,土壤的有机质损失较少,说明在低温下,延长热解吸时间,对生物毒性强的形态汞有良好的修复效果,且此温度下处理后的土壤更容易恢复农田耕作。     

温度对复合厌氧折流板膜生物反应器处理生活污水效能的影响简

将新型CAMBR反应器（厌氧折流板反应器（ABR）与膜生物反应器（MBR）优化组合）用于处理生活污水,研究温度对该反应器处理效能的影响。实验水力停留时间7.5 h,混合液回流比设置为200%,pH值为6.5~8.5,溶解氧3 mg/L左右。控制3个温度梯度：高温（32~37℃）,中温（20~25℃）,低温（5~10℃）,每个温度运行35 d。结果表明,在高温条件下,系统出水COD、NH₄⁺-N、TN和TP平均浓度分别为25、0.5、12.5和0.7 mg/L。在中温条件下,系统出水COD、NH₄⁺-N、TN和TP浓度分别30、1.2、12.5和0.4 mg/L。在低温条件下,COD和TP分别经过15 d和20 d调整适应,出水可恢复至35 mg/L和1 mg/L。由于低温（10℃以下）对硝化细菌产生强烈抑制,出水NH₄⁺-N去除率最终稳定在35%,TN去除率为40%。低温条件下,该反应器应用于污水处理中需注意适当保温,以保证出水水质。     

TiO_2/PTh/Fe_3O_4催化剂制备及光催化与磁回收性能

以聚噻吩磁性微珠PTh/Fe3O4(PF)为载体,采用低温水热法(170℃,pH=7±0.2)在其表面负载TiO2,制备了壳/壳/核结构的磁载光催化剂TiO2/PTh/Fe3O4(TPTF)。用透射电子显微镜(TEM)、X射线衍射仪(XRD)、傅里叶红外分光光度计(FT-IR)、振动样品磁强计(VSM)对催化剂的形貌、物相组成、表面性质、磁学性质进行了表征。以苯酚为模拟污染物,评价其光催化活性;通过自制的磁回收装置,考察其磁回收特性。结果表明,TiO2晶粒大小在4~6 nm之间,具有混晶结构(锐钛矿型占93.6%,金红石型占6.4%);当nTiO2∶n噻吩单体∶nFe3O4=75∶2.5∶1时,TPTF的催化活性最佳;P25、纯TiO2、TPTF(nTiO2∶n噻吩单体:nFe3O4=75∶2.5∶1)和TiO2/Fe3O4(TF)光催化降解苯酚的速率常数分别是0.0371、0.0302、0.0253和0.0106 min-1;TPTF循环使用5次,其反应速率常数、饱和磁化强度以及磁回收率为0.0205 min-1、1.59emu/g和89.3%,比第1次的0.0253 min-1、1.85 emu/g和94.7%略有降低。     

温度与秸秆比例对牛粪好氧堆肥的影响

为了研究不同C／N比值在不同温度条件下牛粪堆肥30d时的全量养分和有机质的含量情况,提出了以新鲜牛粪和苜蓿秸秆混合物为堆料,在添加1％的生物腐熟剂的基础上,对堆肥温度及C／N比进行调控,并进行交叉实验。结果表明,（1）采用培养箱进行好氧发酵时,在温度为30℃和45℃的环境下堆肥最佳,温度过低或过高都会影响堆肥。（2）牛粪高温好氧堆肥时,添加一定比例的苜蓿秸秆可以调节堆料的C／N比值、含水量,缩短堆肥时间,其中牛粪与秸秆比例为1：l混合堆肥效果较好。（3）堆肥30d时,堆料的TN、TP和TK含量较堆肥初期都有所增加,有机质含量有所降低是因为矿化和释放养分造成的,且各含量均符合国家有机肥标准。     

MnO_2对海底沉积物ANAMMOX菌的富集培养影响

采用上流式固定床反应器,在常温下连续运行,考察MnO2对海洋性ANAMMOX菌富集培养的影响,其中接种的海洋海底沉积物采自大连市附近海域。结果表明,在反应器运行近150 d中,加入MnO2的R1反应器的最大总氮去除速率为137.82 g N/(m3·d),比没有加入MnO2的R2反应器高出近20 g N/(m3·d)。在低温环境(10~15℃)运行时,R1反应器的氨氮和亚硝氮去除率比R2反应器均高出10%,且R1反应器对温度变化的适应性和运行稳定性都好于R2反应器。这表明MnO2的加入确实在一定程度上促进了海洋性ANAMMOX细菌的富集,并增强了ANAMMOX反应器对温度变化的适应性,使其能够在较宽的温度范围下运行。     

Characteristic Air Temperature Distributions Observed in Summer and Winter in Urban Area in Japan

The air temperature distributions in August (summer) and December (winter) were measured in an approximately 15 × 15-km urban area in Hyogo Prefecture, Japan, in order to study the spatial distribution of the air temperature and to propose effective measures against the heat island phenomenon. The air temperature was measured mainly by using thermometer shelters installed in an elementary school and a junior high school. The characteristic air temperature distribution depended on the season. The air temperature was higher inland than in the coastal region in August but was higher in the coastal region in December. The air temperature index indicated that the area where higher air temperatures would most likely appear was 5 to 10 km inland from the coast in August and around the coast in December. The seasonal air temperature distribution was presumably due to the strength of solar radiation and anthropogenic exhaust heat.     

Assessment of thermal stratification within stream pools as a mechanism to provide refugia for native trout in hot, arid rangelands

Native trout species, such as the redband trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), occupy thermally harsh stream habitats in hot, arid rangeland basins of the western United States. Declines in the distribution and abundance of these species has generated interest in understanding how these cold water species survive in these systems, as well as in identifying opportunities to restore these species to their former ranges. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential for thermal stratification to provide thermal refuge for redband trout in stream pools characterized by warm intermittent flow conditions on arid rangelands. We studied vertical thermal stratification in two pools during three summers on Boles Creek located on the Modoc Plateau in extreme northeastern California. Water and air temperature data were collected on a 0.5 h time step from 15-Jun through 15-Sep during 1996, 1997, and 2000 using commercial temperature data-loggers. Water temperature was measured at the top (0.3 m below pool surface) and bottom (0.3 m above pool substrates) of each pool. Vertical thermal stratification occurred within these pools creating conditions as much as 7.6 ˚C cooler and consistently more constant at the bottom of pools compared to pool surface waters. Thermal stratification was dependent upon air temperature with the magnitude of stratification increasing as air temperature increased. The magnitude of thermal stratification varied significantly from year to year, likely reflecting variation in annual weather conditions. The thermal regime in the study pools was often near the upper lethal limit reported for redband trout, but temperatures at the bottom of these pools did offer refuge from lethal temperatures realized near the pool surface. Temperatures at pool bottom were consistently above optimal levels published for redbands.     

IMBR中污泥增殖动力学特征与温度的相关性研究

为研究混合液温度对IMBR污泥增殖动力学特征的影响规律,进行了动态试验,考察了10℃、15℃、20℃、25℃、30℃、35℃ 6个温度条件下的动力学特征.研究结果表明:本实验条件下,温度对理论产率系数与衰减系数都有显著影响,理论产率系数随温度的升高而降低,理论产率系数与温度符合乘幂关系;得到的衰减系数要高于普通的活性污泥法,衰减系数与温度仍符合关系式Kt= K20(θt)(t-20),求得的温度系数在传统活性污泥法的取值范围之内.