我国东部七省生态系统对酸沉降的相对敏感性

讨论了影响亚热带生态系统对酸沉降敏感性的生态因子，提出了敏感性等级划分的指标体系，根据大量资料编制了我国东部７省１市生态系统对酸沉降相对敏感性分区图。结果表明，在研究区域内生态系统的敏感性有相当大的差别，极敏感区和敏感区面积占全区总面积的１／３以上，主要分布在福建、浙江、江西３省。     

陆地生态环境酸沉降敏感性研究

酸雨对生态环境的影响已成为全球性的重大环境问题，本文在总结了世界酸雨现状、酸雨的生态危害、酸雨对土壤系统的影响及生态系统酸沉降敏感性等方面研究现状的基础上，对各方面的研究进展、存在的问题及发展趋势进行了评述和展望，并提出了若干研究方向及进一步研究需要注意的问题。     

Short-term Model of the Production of Construction Aggregates in Taiwan Based on Artificial Neural Networks

BACKGROUND: Taiwan's geography and limited stock of sandstone have caused sandstone resources to gradually decline to the point of exhaustion after long-term excavation. Moreover, the Taiwanese government has continuously increased the amount of land area near rivers that cannot be excavated to facilitate riverbed remediation and promote conservation of water resources. Accordingly, predicting and managing the annual production of construction aggregates in future construction projects, and dealing appropriately with some thorny problems, for instance, demand that excess supply, excessive excavation, unregulated excavation, and the consequent environmental damage, will significantly affect the efficient use of natural resources in a manner that accords with the national policy of Sustainable Development (SD). METHODS:. This study establishes an empirical model for forecasting the annual production of future construction aggregates using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), based on 15 relevant socio-economic indicators, such as indicator of annual consumption of cement. A sensitivity analysis is then performed on these indicators. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: This work applies ANN to estimate the annual production of construction aggregates; the estimates, the verification of the model and the sensitivity analysis are all acceptable. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis results indicate that the annual consumption of cement is the indicator that most strongly influences the production of construction aggregates, as well as whether construction waste can be recycled and steel structures can be used in buildings, helping to reduce the future production of construction aggregates in Taiwan. CONCLUSIONS: The elaborate prediction methodology presented in this study avoids some of the weaknesses or limitations of conventional linear statistics, linear programming or system dynamics. Additionally, the results not only provide a short-term prediction of the production of construction aggregates in Taiwan, but also provide a viable and flexible means of verifying quality certification of the production data of construction aggregates in the future by incorporating those relevant socio-economic indicators. RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK: The continuity and quality of the database of relevant indicators used in this study should be closely scrutinized in order to ensure the SD means of exploiting resources.     

Analysis on sensitivity and landscape ecological spatial structure of site resources

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氨氮对污水场的冲击影响分析

分析了氨氮对污水场的冲击影响，并提出对策。     

Risk and safety perception on urban and rural roads: Effects of environmental features,driver age and risk sensitivity

Objective: The ability to detect changing visual information is a vital component of safe driving. In addition to detecting changing visual information, drivers must also interpret its relevance to safety. Environmental changes considered to have high safety relevance will likely demand greater attention and more timely responses than those considered to have lower safety relevance. The aim of this study was to explore factors that are likely to influence perceptions of risk and safety regarding changing visual information in the driving environment. Factors explored were the environment in which the change occurs (i.e., urban vs. rural), the type of object that changes, and the driver's age, experience, and risk sensitivity.

Methods: Sixty-three licensed drivers aged 18–70 years completed a hazard rating task, which required them to rate the perceived hazardousness of changing specific elements within urban and rural driving environments. Three attributes of potential hazards were systematically manipulated: the environment (urban, rural); the type of object changed (road sign, car, motorcycle, pedestrian, traffic light, animal, tree); and its inherent safety risk (low risk, high risk). Inherent safety risk was manipulated by either varying the object's placement, on/near or away from the road, or altering an infrastructure element that would require a change to driver behavior. Participants also completed two driving-related risk perception tasks, rating their relative crash risk and perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors.

Results: Driver age was not significantly associated with hazard ratings, but individual differences in perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors predicted hazard ratings, suggesting that general driving-related risk sensitivity plays a strong role in safety perception. In both urban and rural scenes, there were significant associations between hazard ratings and inherent safety risk, with low-risk changes perceived as consistently less hazardous than high-risk impact changes; however, the effect was larger for urban environments. There were also effects of object type, with certain objects rated as consistently more safety relevant. In urban scenes, changes involving pedestrians were rated significantly more hazardous than all other objects, and in rural scenes, changes involving animals were rated as significantly more hazardous. Notably, hazard ratings were found to be higher in urban compared with rural driving environments, even when changes were matched between environments.

Conclusion: This study demonstrates that drivers perceive rural roads as less risky than urban roads, even when similar scenarios occur in both environments. Age did not affect hazard ratings. Instead, the findings suggest that the assessment of risk posed by hazards is influenced more by individual differences in risk sensitivity. This highlights the need for driver education to account for appraisal of hazards’ risk and relevance, in addition to hazard detection, when considering factors that promote road safety.     

Comparison of Evapotranspiration Simulation Performance by APEX Model in Dryland and Irrigated Cropping Systems

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is essential to improve water use efficiency of crop production systems managed under different water regimes. The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model was used to simulate ET using four potential ET (ET_p) methods. The objectives were to determine sensitive ET parameters in dryland and irrigated cropping systems and compare ET simulation in the two systems using multiple performance criteria. Measured ET and crop yield data from lysimeter fields located in the United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service Bushland, Texas were used for evaluation. The number of sensitive parameters was higher for dryland (11–14) than irrigated cropping systems (6–8). Only four input parameters: soil evaporation plant cover factor, root growth soil strength, maximum rain intercept, and rain intercept coefficient were sensitive in both cropping systems. Overall, it is possible to find a set of robust parameter values to simulate ET accurately in APEX in both cropping systems using any ET_p method. However, more computation time is required for dryland than irrigated cropping system due to a relatively larger number of sensitive input parameters. When all inputs are available, the Penman–Monteith method takes the shortest computation time to obtain one model run with robust parameter values in both cropping systems. However, in areas with limited datasets, one can still obtain reasonable ET simulations using either Priestley–Taylor or Hargreaves. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

叶菜类蔬菜产地镉环境质量类别划分技术研究

以农业农村部环境监测总站对我国主要叶菜类蔬菜产地的例行监测数据为基础,综合考虑种类和土壤理化性质的影响,深入探讨了应用物种敏感性分布法（SSD）基于不同累积概率建立我国叶菜类蔬菜产地“优先保护类、安全利用类和严格管控类”的土壤镉环境质量类别划分阈值,并对其合理性验证.结果表明：pH值、阳离子交换量（CEC）和土壤有机质（SOM）对叶菜类蔬菜富集镉的影响均达到了极显著水平（P<0.01）,并由其构建的三因子生物有效性模型为lgBCF=-0.122pH+0.025lgSOM-0.048lgCEC+1.252（R²=0.746,P<0.01,n=134）,可解释叶菜类蔬菜富集系数74.6%的变异;利用上述模型将不同土壤理化性质条件下叶菜类蔬菜镉的生物富集系数（BCF）归一化处理可最大程度降低土壤理化性质对其富集镉的影响,凸出叶菜类蔬菜的内在敏感性;利用归一化后的BCF通过log-logistic拟合函数构建SSD曲线得到,不同叶菜类蔬菜种类对镉的敏感性差异明显;依据SSD曲线基于保护80%、50%和5%的叶菜类蔬菜种类分别推导出pH≤6.5、6.5相似文献   

地下水DNAPLs污染多相流的随机模拟及其不确定性分析

水文地质参数本身存在不确定性,为分析水文地质参数不确定性对地下水DNAPLs污染多相流数值模拟模型输出结果的影响,本文针对假想算例展开研究,首先建立了研究区地下水DNAPLs污染多相流数值模拟模型;然后,运用灵敏度分析法筛选对模型输出结果影响较大的参数作为随机变量;为减少反复调用多相流模拟模型产生的计算负荷,运用克里格方法建立多相流模拟模型的替代模型,利用替代模型完成蒙特卡洛随机模拟;最后,对随机模拟的结果进行统计分析并完成地下水污染风险评价.结果表明,利用污染物浓度分布函数可以估算单井遭受污染的风险;利用地下水污染风险图可以对全区地下水遭受不同程度污染的风险大小进行分区,为地下水污染防治提供更加科学、丰富的参考依据.