独塔自锚式悬索桥吊索力影响参数敏感性分析*

为了解成桥吊索力对构件刚度、索鞍位置、温度、吊索张拉力等参数的敏感性,保证自锚式悬索桥体系转换能够安全顺利地完成,以天水市罗家沟大桥为工程背景,采用解析法修正空缆线形、有限元法模拟施工过程,分析张拉前参数和张拉过程参数变化对成桥吊索力的影响。结果表明:刚性吊索索力对吊索抗拉刚度变化敏感,在实际施工前可根据实测数据对吊索张拉力进行适当调整;中、长吊索索力对张拉时环境温度比较敏感,中、长吊索临近的吊索索力对第1轮吊索的张拉力偏差比较敏感,在实际施工时应采取相应的措施对张拉力予以精确控制;吊索力对散索鞍沿滑动面滑动的边界处理较敏感,应在有限元建模和施工时予以重视。     

水环境中有机污染物对藻类毒理性的探讨

近年来,环境中的有机污染物对生态环境的破坏日益加剧,并严重威胁到了人类的生存和发展。藻类作为初级生产者,是整个生态系统物质循环和能量流动的基础,因此研究水环境中有机污染物对藻类的毒理性,对于环境污染的监测具有深远的意义。就有机污染物对藻类的毒性机理、藻类对有机污染物的敏感度等问题的研究现状进行综述,并对藻类在环境监测方面的应用前景进行展望。     

Uncertainties in a Baltic Sea Food-Web Model Reveal Challenges for Future Projections

Models that can project ecosystem dynamics under changing environmental conditions are in high demand. The application of such models, however, requires model validation together with analyses of model uncertainties, which are both often overlooked. We carried out a simplified model uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on an Ecopath with Ecosim food-web model of the Baltic Proper (BaltProWeb) and found the model sensitive to both variations in the input data of pre-identified key groups and environmental forcing. Model uncertainties grew particularly high in future climate change scenarios. For example, cod fishery recommendations that resulted in viable stocks in the original model failed after data uncertainties were introduced. In addition, addressing the trophic control dynamics produced by the food-web model proved as a useful tool for both model validation, and for studying the food-web function. These results indicate that presenting model uncertainties is necessary to alleviate ecological surprises in marine ecosystem management.     

堤防工程综合安全模型和风险评价体系研究及应用

为获得荆南长江干堤的安全特性,在层次分析法及模糊一致理论的基础上,考虑堤防工程水、土两相系材料的特点,建立了模糊综合评判系统结构模型。通过正态型模糊隶属函数,结合两种权值理论实现了对堤防工程的安全综合评判。在模糊综合评判结论的基础上,结合模式识别的间接方法,提出了广义多维加权模糊识别模型,实现了对典型堤身段的安全模式识别,并对模型指标体系作了敏感性分析。所得成果比较全面地反映了干堤在复杂运行条件下的综合安全特性,对指导工程现场管理与监测有现实意义。对于复杂堤防系统,模糊综合评判是实现全面风险分析的有效手段,而广义多维加权模糊识别模型可以为工程安全决策提供有力依据。     

Derivation of aquatic predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for 2,4-dichlorophenol: comparing native species data with non-native species data

2,4-Dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP) is known as an important chemical intermediate and an environmental endocrine disruptor. There is no paper dealing with the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) of 2,4-DCP, mainly due to shortage of chronic and site-specific toxicity data. In the present study, toxicity data was obtained from the tests using six Chinese native aquatic species. The HC₅ (hazardous concentration for 5% of species) was derived based on the constructed species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which was compared with that derived from literature toxicity data of non-native species. For invertebrates, the survival no-observed effect concentrations (NOECs) were 0.05 and 1.00 mg L⁻¹ for Macrobrachium superbum and Corbicula fluminea, respectively. NOECs based on fishes’ growth were 0.10, 0.20 and 0.40 mg L⁻¹ for Mylopharyngodon piceus, Plagiognathops microlepis and Erythroculter ilishaeformis, respectively. For aquatic plant Soirodela polyrhiza, NOEC based on concentration of chlorophyll was 1.00 mg L⁻¹. A final PNEC calculated using the SSD approach with a 50% certainty based on different taxa ranged between 0.008 and 0.045 mg L⁻¹. There is no significant difference between HC₅ derived from native and that from non-native taxa.     

生态、经济协同发展的滨湖区空间管制分区研究——以巢湖东段为例

生态敏感性极高的滨湖区正面临着人类开发带来的环境威胁。旨在通过滨湖区空间管制,处理好保护与开发的关系,避免和减少开发过程中可能带来的负面环境问题,实现滨湖区持续、健康发展。应用模糊评价与GIS空间分析方法,首先从生态环境敏感性、经济发展潜力两大方面出发,构建了包括2项I 级指标、9项Ⅱ级指标和32项Ⅲ级指标的滨湖区空间管制分区评价指标体系;应用GIS空间分析模块,以500 m网格为基本评价单元,分别进行滨湖区的生态敏感性、经济发展潜力以及二者的叠加评价。结果显示：滨湖区从单元上可确定4类开发功能取向（适宜、较适宜、限制、禁止建设）,从区域生态、经济协同发展要求下,从满足生产、生活和生态的需要,宜将滨湖区划定不同功能的空间管制区     

南京紫金山马尾松树轮δ13C对气候变化响应敏感性的研究

树木年轮宽度指标在气候重建中发挥了重要的作用,可是在温暖湿润的地区,利用树木年轮宽度重建古气候遇到了困难。因此寻找其他代用指标就成为一项急迫而重要的任务。一些研究发现,树轮稳定碳同位素可以发挥重要的作用。但是,是否所有的树种的树轮碳同位素对气候的响应都同样的敏感,还需要通过大量的研究分析工作来验证。为了了解温暖湿润的亚热带季风区马尾松树轮δ13C对气候响应的敏感性,选取了南京紫金山的两个马尾松树盘,进行了树轮δ13C的分析,建立了1939~2002和1955~2002年两个树轮δ13C变化序列。与降水、温度、相对湿度、光照时数、风速等气候指标进行了相关分析。结果表明：（1）马尾松树轮δ13C对于气候的响应是敏感的,可以作为气候变化的代用指标;（2）坡向对于马尾松树轮δ13C对气候的响应敏感性也有一定的影响,树轮δ13C平均值西南坡比东南坡高,西南坡比东南坡对月平均最低和最高温度的响应更敏感;（3）紫金山马尾松树轮δ13C与该地区生长季（尤其是夏、秋季）的月平均气温、月平均最高气温和日照时数呈正相关,而与月平均最低气温、降水量、空气相对湿度呈负相关     

Toxicity of mancozeb,chlorothalonil, captan,fluopyram, boscalid,and difenoconazole to Didymella applanata isolates from Serbia

Field isolates of Didymella applanata, the causal agent of spur blight of raspberry, were evaluated in vitro for their sensitivity to mancozeb, chlorothalonil, captan, fluopyram, boscalid and difenoconazole. A total of 10 isolates, collected during 2013 at five localities in the major raspberry growing region in Serbia, and characterized as copper hydroxide, dithianon, and tebuconazole (sensitive), pyraclostrobin (sensitive or highly resistant) and fluazinam (sensitive or moderately resistant), were used in this study. The EC₅₀ values for the isolates ranged from 1.33 to 2.88 mg L^?1 for mancozeb, from 3.18 to 6.65 mg L^?1 for chlorothalonil, from 15.75 to 24.69 mg L^?1 for captan and from 1.80 to 8.20 mg L^?1 for fluopyram. The narrowest range of EC₅₀ values was recorded for difenoconazole (0.23–0.49 mg L^?1), whereas the widest range was obtained for boscalid (4.49–49.25 mg L^?1). The calculated resistance factors showed that all D. applanata isolates were sensitive to mancozeb, chlorothalonil, captan, and difenoconazole. Four isolates were moderately resistant to boscalid, while three of them were also moderately resistant to fluopyram. This finding of moderately resistant isolates to these SDHI fungicides indicates a possible cross-resistance which should be clarified in further investigations.     

不同进水条件下ASM1模型参数的灵敏度分析

编制了BSM1的仿真程序,并分析了不同进水条件下ASM1模型的16个参数对BSM1出水COD、TN、NH4+-N、NO3--N灵敏度的影响.结果表明,9个参数的灵敏度在规定的划分范围内没有区别,7个参数在不同进水条件下差别较明显;各参数灵敏度的变化规律,与出水的NH4+-N及NO3--N浓度变化有一定相关性;灵敏度变化与ASM1模型速率方程中的开关函数有关.研究不同进水条件下模型参数的灵敏度,有助于提高污水处理仿真计算的准确性.     

磷酸钙盐结晶除磷工艺性能研究

研究了主要工艺条件pH和Ca/P对磷酸钙盐结晶除磷工艺性能的影响。通过分批实验,建立了磷去除率与pH之间的指数函数关系以及磷去除率与Ca/P之间的对数函数关系。连续运试表明,在pH=9.0、Ca/P=2的条件下,磷酸钙盐结晶除磷反应器的容积负荷为1.10 kg P/(m3.d),磷去除率为51%。灵敏度分析表明,pH对磷去除率的影响大于Ca/P,将Ca/P提高至6,容积负荷提高至1.60 kg P/(m3.d),磷去除率提高至74.3%;将pH提高至10.0,容积负荷提高至1.80 kg P/(m3.d),磷去除率提高至83.5%。工艺操作上可选pH作为优先控制对象。