土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响--以武汉市为例

分析了1996～2001年武汉市快速城市化区域土地利用/土地覆盖变化,并计算由此导致的生态系统服务价值变化。应用Costanza生态系统服务价值计算公式,采用谢高地等人的中国陆地生态系统单位面积生态服务价值表进行计算,结果发现：①在研究期内,研究区耕地、草地、水域和未利用地在减少,其中耕地减少最多,达12.32×103 hm2,林地、湿地和建设用地在增加,建设用地增加最多,为11.70×103 hm2;②ESV由1996年的457.74×107元减少到2001年的456.14×107元,5年减少1.61×107元;③生态系统单项服务功能价值中的气体调节、气候调节、原材料和娱乐文化在增加,气候调节增幅最大,达8.51%,水源涵养、土壤形成和保护、废物处理、生物多样性保护和食物生产在减少,食物生产减幅最大,达7.42%;④敏感性分析表明,ESV对生态价值系数(Value Coefficient, VC)缺乏弹性,研究结果可信。     

生态系统对酸沉降相对敏感性评价原理与方法

介绍了敏感性及生态系统对酸沉降的绝对敏感性和相对敏感性的概念,概念了水体和土壤对酸沉降绝对敏感性评价的方法。通过分析比较生态系统中各生态子对酸沉降的缓冲能力,担子同建立生态系统对酸沉降相对敏感性评价的基本原理,并介绍了建立的评价才近期的发展。     

细菌发光传感器在快速检测污染物急性毒性中的应用

本研究以明亮发光杆菌作为指示生物,将细胞固定化技术,生物传感器技术与发光细菌毒性测试技术有机结合起来,建立一种细菌发光传感器,确定了固体化菌膜的发光强度及稳定时间,以这一检测系统测定了３种金属离子及３种有机化合物的急性毒性（以抑制菌膜发光强度５０％所需的受试物浓度ＥＣ５０值表示）并分析了毒性作用的动力学过程,实验结果表明：在Ｈ７．０温度２０℃３．０％ＮａＣｌ底液条件下固定化菌膜的发光强度达２５０～     

Bayesian spatial prediction

This paper presents a complete Bayesian methodology for analyzing spatial data, one which employs proper priors and features diagnostic methods in the Bayesian spatial setting. The spatial covariance structure is modeled using a rich class of covariance functions for Gaussian random fields. A general class of priors for trend, scale, and structural covariance parameters is considered. In particular, we obtain analytic results that allow easy computation of the predictive distribution for an arbitrary prior on the parameters of the covariance function using importance sampling. The computations, as well as model diagnostics and sensitivity analysis, are illustrated with a set of precipitation data.     

生态系统对酸沉降敏感性评价方法与进展

评述水体、土壤和整个生态系统对酸沉降敏感性评价的各种方法,这些方法用系统 的不同物理化学性质表征它们缓冲酸输入的能力。     

The role of wind field, mixing height and horizontal diffusivity investigated through two lagrangian particle models

Two Lagrangian particle models, APOLLO and MILORD, were used to simulate the first ETEX experiment. The role played by wind field, mixing height h and horizontal diffusivity K_H appeared to be the most important aspects to be studied. The sensitivity to the accuracy of the input advection field was studied through the application of APOLLO using different ECMWF data sets differing in space and time resolution and in being forecasted or analysed, corresponding to the real-time, emergency-like condition, and to the a posteriori benchmark simulation. The role of h and K_H was investigated by running both APOLLO and MILORD with different parameterisations, and comparing the model results between them and with the available observations.The model evaluation was carried out through a set of statistical indexes computed on three hourly average concentrations paired in space and time and time-integrated concentrations. It was found that the quality of the input wind field plays a major role in predicting with sufficient accuracy the plume position and extension after the first 24 h from the beginning of the release. The best-model results are obtained with large values of K_H (in the range of 2.5×10⁴–4.5×10⁴ m² s^-1), which confirms the need to enhance the horizontal diffusion, in order to include the advection fluctuations unresolved by large-scale meteorological fields. A fixed value of h in the range 1000–1500 m seems to be more efficient than space and time variable h computed with standard algorithms. A reasonable explanation for this result is given, based on the consideration that in the long range, particles diffuse also in the residual layer above the stable nocturnal boundary layer.     

海河流域沉积物中典型重金属的生态风险评估及验证

沉积物重金属污染及其生态风险评估日益受到关注,而沉积物质量基准是开展生态风险评估的有力工具。本研究通过物种敏感度分布法(species sensitivity distributions, SSD)和急慢性毒性比(acute to chronic ratios, ACR)推导了镍、铜、锌、镉和铅的沉积物质量基准(sediment quality guideline, SQG)。在获得合理的重金属沉积物慢性毒性数据的基础上,采用S-Logistic模型拟合镍、铜、镉和铅的慢性SSD曲线,采用S-Gompertz模型拟合锌的慢性SSD曲线。得到镍、铜、锌、镉和铅沉积物质量基准低值(sediment quality guideline low value, SQGlow)分别为18.6、69.9、107、1.26和38.4 mg·kg~(-1),应用ACRs,得到相应的沉积物质量基准高值(sediment quality guideline high value, SQGhigh)分别为167、226、556、10.1和384 mg·kg~(-1)。与加拿大和澳大利亚重金属沉积物基准值具有一定的可比性。选择花翅摇蚊(Chironomus kiiensis)、伸展摇蚊(Chironomus tentans)和霍甫水丝蚓(Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri)3种底栖生物作为受试生物,验证基准值对海河流域沉积物重金属毒性的预测能力。结果表明,利用SQGs预测沉积物毒性的总准确率为76.2%,3种底栖生物验证准确率从高至低为:花翅摇蚊>伸展摇蚊>霍甫水丝蚓。     

应用物种敏感性分布评估微(纳米)塑料对水生生物的生态风险

水环境中的微(纳米)塑料对水生生物具有潜在的危害。为了评估微(纳米)塑料对水生生物的毒性效应及生态风险,本研究在广泛查阅并分析微(纳米)塑料相关毒理学研究数据的基础上,利用物种敏感性分布(Species Sensitivity Distributions,SSD)方法对其中5门10科11种水生生物的急性毒理数据进行曲线拟合;计算对应的5%危害浓度(the hazardous concentration for 5%of the species, HC_5)和潜在影响比例(potential affected fractions, PAF);计算了相应的急性生态效应阀值(predicted no effect concentration, PNEC_(acute)),并比较了各类水生生物对微(纳米)塑料的敏感性及其所受生态风险。结果表明,目前已有数据中微(纳米)塑料对费氏弧菌(Vibrio fischeri)的生态风险最大,对朱氏四爿藻(Tetraselmis chuii)的生态风险最小;基于Reweibull模型对水生生物数据所推导的PNEC_(acute)为0.185μg·L~(-1),约为当前微(纳米)塑料在水体环境中浓度的30%。利用SSD来预测微(纳米)塑料不同暴露浓度下对水生生物的PAF,发现当微(纳米)塑料暴露浓度小于10μg·L~(-1)时,水生生物所受的影响在可接受范围内;当暴露浓度达到1 000μg·L~(-1)时,将有26%的物种受到微(纳米)塑料的危害。此外,利用Rurrlioz软件估算了世界典型淡水与海水水域表层水体中微塑料对水生生物的PAF值,发现其PAF预测值都为0;将各水域微塑料浓度与急性生态效应阀值PNEC_(acute)比较后发现,除太湖外,其他水体环境中微塑料浓度都低于PNEC_(acute),说明如果只考虑微塑料本身的影响,目前世界典型水域表层水中微塑料对水生生物的危害程度大部分都在可接受的范围之内。     

异常环流背景下贺兰山地形对8.21特大致洪暴雨的影响分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP再分析资料对2016年8月21日傍晚到夜间贺兰山沿山特大致洪极值暴雨展开研究,分析了异常大气环流形势及其影响,并利用天气研究和预报模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)进行数值模拟和地形敏感性试验,研究了贺兰山地形对暴雨过程的影响。结果表明:超强厄尔尼诺结束后的盛夏,大气环流形势发展异常,8月南亚高压和副热带高压异常偏强,西北地区东部处于高温、高湿、高能控制,副高的快速进退和冷平流的入侵,触发暖湿不稳定能量强烈聚集与快速释放,导致特大暴雨的爆发。其发生在200hPa高空急流分流区即强辐散区、中空西南气流的高温高湿区、低空偏南急流轴左侧流场最大弯曲处的强暖平流区、850hPa偏东大风速轴南侧的风速辐合区,天气尺度强迫作用相对较弱的环境中,500hPa短波槽与700hPa、850hPa低涡切变线和偏南偏东急流以及地面气旋式切变辐合线共同作用是其发生的主要影响系统。贺兰山地形对特大暴雨的发生有明显的增幅效应,主要是贺兰山地形阻挡与强迫抬升作用,促使低涡切变强烈发展从而影响了降水范围、强降水落区及其中心位置等。     

Estimating Root Zone Soil Moisture at Continental Scale Using Neural Networks

This study investigates the feasibility of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to retrieve root zone soil moisture (RZSM) at the depths of 20 cm (SM20) and 50 cm (SM50) at a continental scale, using surface information. To train the ANNs to capture interactions between land surface and various climatic patterns, data of 557 stations over the continental United States were collected. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the ANNs were able to identify input variables that directly affect the water and energy balance in root zone. The data important for RZSM retrieval in a large area included soil texture, surface soil moisture, and the cumulative values of air temperature, surface soil temperature, rainfall, and snowfall. The results showed that the ANNs had high skill in retrieving SM20 with a correlation coefficient above 0.7 in most cases, but were less effective at estimating SM50. The comparison of the ANNs showed that using soil texture data improved the model performance, especially for the estimation of SM50. It was demonstrated that the ANNs had high flexibility for applications in different climatic regions. The method was used to generate RZSM in North America using Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) soil moisture data, and achieved a spatial soil moisture pattern comparable to that of Global Land Data Assimilation System Noah model with comparable performance to the SMOS surface soil moisture retrievals. The models can be efficient alternatives to assimilate remote sensing soil moisture data for shallow RZSM retrieval.