Sensitivity analysis for models of greenhouse gas emissions at farm level. Case study of N(2)O emissions simulated by the CERES-EGC model

Modelling complex systems such as farms often requires quantification of a large number of input factors. Sensitivity analyses are useful to reduce the number of input factors that are required to be measured or estimated accurately. Three methods of sensitivity analysis (the Morris method, the rank regression and correlation method and the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test method) were compared in the case of the CERES-EGC model applied to crops of a dairy farm. The qualitative Morris method provided a screening of the input factors. The two other quantitative methods were used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of input factors on output variables. Despite differences in terms of concepts and assumptions, the three methods provided similar results. Among the 44 factors under study, N₂O emissions were mainly sensitive to the fraction of N₂O emitted during denitrification, the maximum rate of nitrification, the soil bulk density and the cropland area.     

武汉市九峰城市森林保护区景观敏感度评价

为合理开展森林景观的规划与建设,应用RS和GIS技术,并结合小班调查,对武汉市九峰城市森林保护区的景观生态敏感度和景观视觉敏感度进行了研究。结果表明：在武汉市九峰城市森林保护区中,高生态敏感区面积占总面积的4.6％,主要包括荒山、废弃采石场和少量灌木林地,应尽快进行生态恢复。中生态敏感区面积占总面积的535％,主要为水域、农田、部分苗圃和建设用地,可重点开展森林植被恢复和景观建设。低生态敏感区面积占总面积的419％,主要是森林覆盖区域、部分苗圃和居民点,应重点加强保护。一级视觉敏感区主要分布在沿道路两侧坡度大于20°的近景带,应以保护和生态恢复措施为主。二级视觉敏感区主要是坡度较小的近景带和山体的中、远景带区域,可视性强,应重点开展景观改造。三级视觉敏感区主要是中、远景带中的平坦地带,包括农田、苗圃、居民点等半自然景观和人文景观,可在不影响整体风貌和视觉环境的前提下进行景观建设。四级视觉敏感区为不可见区域或低可见区域,坡度大,可及性差,不宜规划建设项目。     

上海大雾气候特征及风险区划研究

大雾作为一种比较常见的灾害性天气,对交通运输和人体健康等都会造成严重的影响。基于上海市11个气象站1971-2000年的大雾数据和城市基础地理信息,利用地理信息系统和层次分析法,结合专家调查法,建立了上海市大雾风险的评价指标体系和权重,开展了上海市大雾的风险特征及地理区划研究,获得了1 km空间分辨率的上海大雾气候特征图、上海城市对大雾敏感性特征图和上海市大雾风险区划图。初步研究表明,这种方法对城市大雾评估和风险区划是可行的。     

Toxicity of metalaxyl,azoxystrobin, dimethomorph,cymoxanil, zoxamide and mancozeb to Phytophthora infestans isolates from Serbia

A study of the in vitro sensitivity of 12 isolates of Phytophthora infestans to metalaxyl, azoxystrobin, dimethomorph, cymoxanil, zoxamide and mancozeb, was conducted. The isolates derived from infected potato leaves collected at eight different localities in Serbia during 2005–2007. The widest range of EC₅₀ values for mycelial growth of the isolates was recorded for metalaxyl. They varied from 0.3 to 3.9 μg mL^?1 and were higher than those expected in a susceptible population of P. infestans. The EC₅₀ values of the isolates were 0.16–0.30 μg mL^?1 for dimethomorph, 0.27–0.57 μg mL^?1 for cymoxanil, 0.0026–0.0049 μg mL^?1 for zoxamide and 2.9–5.0 μg mL^?1 for mancozeb. The results indicated that according to effective concentration (EC₅₀) the 12 isolates of P. infestans were sensitive to azoxystrobin (0.019–0.074 μg mL^?1), and intermediate resistant to metalaxyl, dimethomorph and cymoxanil. According to resistance factor, all P. infestans isolates were sensitive to dimethomorph, cymoxanil, mancozeb and zoxamide, 58.3% of isolates were sensitive to azoxystrobin and 50% to metalaxyl. Gout's scale indicated that 41.7% isolates were moderately sensitive to azoxystrobin and 50% to metalaxyl.     

Ecological risk assessment of organic waste amendments using the species sensitivity distribution from a soil organisms test battery

Safe amendment rates (the predicted no-effect concentration or PNEC) of seven organic wastes were estimated from the species sensitivity distribution of a battery of soil biota tests and compared with different realistic amendment scenarios (different predicted environmental concentrations or PEC). None of the wastes was expected to exert noxious effects on soil biota if applied according either to the usual maximum amendment rates in Europe or phosphorus demands of crops (below 2 tonnes DM ha⁻¹). However, some of the wastes might be problematic if applied according to nitrogen demands of crops (above 2 tonnes DM ha⁻¹). Ammonium content and organic matter stability of the studied wastes are the most influential determinants of the maximum amendment rates derived in this study, but not pollutant burden. This finding indicates the need to stabilize wastes prior to their reuse in soils in order to avoid short-term impacts on soil communities.     

Numerical study on the spontaneous ignition of pressurized hydrogen release through a tube into air

Spontaneous ignition of pressurized hydrogen release through a tube into air is investigated using a modified version of the KIVA-3V CFD code. A mixture-averaged multi-component approach is used for accurate calculation of molecular transport. Autoignition and combustion chemistry is accounted for using a 21 step kinetic scheme. Ultra fine meshes are employed along with the Arbitrary Lagrangia–Eulerian (ALE) method to reduce false numerical diffusion. The study has demonstrated a possible mechanism for spontaneous ignition through molecular diffusion.

In the simulated scenario, the tube provided additional time to achieve a combustible mixture at the hydrogen–air contact surface. When the tube was sufficiently long under certain release pressure, autoignition would initiate inside the tube at the contact surface due to mass and energy exchange between low temperature hydrogen and shock-heated air through molecular diffusion. Following further development of the hydrogen jet downstream, the contact surface became distorted. Turbulence plays an important role for hydrogen/air mixing in the immediate vicinity of this distorted contact surface and led the initial laminar flame to transit into a stable turbulent flame.     

Self-ignition and explosion during discharge of high-pressure hydrogen

The phenomenon of self-ignition and explosion during discharge of high-pressure hydrogen was investigated. To clarify the ignition conditions of high-pressure hydrogen jets, rapid discharge of the high-pressure hydrogen was examined experimentally. A diaphragm was used to allow rapid discharge of the high-pressure hydrogen. The burst pressure was varied from 4 to 30 MPa. The downstream geometry of the diaphragm was a flange and extension pipes, with the pipe length varying from 3 to 300 mm. The diameter of the nozzle was 5 or 10 mm. When short pipes were used, the hydrogen jet did not ignite. However, the hydrogen jet showed an increasing tendency to ignite in the pipe as the length of the pipe became longer. At higher burst pressures, a diffusion jet flame was formed from the pipe. The blast wave from the fireball formed on self-ignition of the hydrogen jet resulted in an extremely rapid pressure rise.     

Comparative Toxicity of Prymnesium parvum in Inland Waters1

Brooks, Bryan W., Susan V. James, Theodore W. Valenti, Jr., Fabiola Urena-Boeck, Carlos Serrano, Jason P. Berninger, Leslie Schwierzke, Laura D. Mydlarz, James P. Grover, and Daniel L. Roelke, 2010. Comparative Toxicity of Prymnesium parvum in Inland Waters. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(1):45-62. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00390.x Abstract: Numerous studies have examined the impacts of Prymnesium parvum to aquatic life, but the majority of information available is from experiments or field studies performed at salinities of marine and coastal ecosystems. Ambient toxicity of P. parvum has been characterized with in vitro and in vivo models because reliable quantitation of P. parvum toxins in environmental matrices is often precluded by a lack of available analytical standards. Hemolytic activity and fish mortality assays have been used most frequently to characterize toxic conditions; however, relatively few in vivo studies employed standardized methods. Because the relative sensitivities of different taxa to P. parvum toxins in inland waters were undefined, we assessed the comparative toxicity of P. parvum filtrate from a laboratory study (20°C, 12:12 light:dark cycle, f/8 media, 2.4 psu) to several common standardized in vitro and in vivo models. After exposure to cell-free filtrate hemolytic activity (1 h EC₅₀ = 13,712 cells/ml) and juvenile fish (Pimephales promelas) survival (48 h LC₅₀ = 21,754 cells/ml) were the most sensitive assay responses examined, followed by rotifer (Brachionus calyciflorus) population growth rate [48 h no observable adverse effect levels (NOAEL) = 19,072 cells/ml] and cladoceran (Daphnia magna) reproduction (10-day NOAEL = 47,680 cells/ml). Green algae (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) growth (96 h) was not adversely affected but was instead significantly stimulated by P. parvum toxins. We further propose an initial species sensitivity distribution approach for P. parvum, which may be used to support future environmental management decisions. Our findings from these laboratory studies indicate that although fish kills are increasingly associated with P. parvum blooms occurring in inland waters, further study is required to define the influences of toxin sensitivities of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish communities on P. parvum bloom initiation and termination.     

基于APSIM模型的春玉米生育期旱灾损失敏感性定量分析

作物不同生育期旱灾损失敏感性研究对于提高农业干旱监测准确率、采取合理的农业抗旱减灾措施等有重要意义.干旱发生时,农业用水被压缩,充分利用当前可用灌溉水量以取得较好的作物产量效益是农业抗旱减灾中的重点.目前已有研究大多从水分胁迫试验出发,分析不同干旱胁迫对作物产量的影响,定性分析作物各生育期旱灾损失敏感性.由于农田试验样...