植物对酞酸酯的敏感性

采用发芽试验和温室盆试验等方法，研究了酞酸酯（ＤＢＰ、ＤＥＨＰ）对番茄等１２种蔬菜以及水稻、小麦和油菜的影响。结果表明：酞酸酯（１０ｍｇ／１）对种子发芽率无明显影响，但对幼苗形态特征有一定作用。电镜观察表明：受害叶片叶绿体数量减少、结构改变。初步讨论了酞酸酯的理化性质与作物受害的关系，划分了蔬菜对酞酸酯的敏感性顺序。     

Optimal Control Models and Elicitation of Attitudes towards Climate Damages

This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a pure preference for current climate regime and full cost-benefit analysis. The choice of a given proxy of climate change risks is actually more than a technical option. It is essentially motivated by the degree of distrust regarding the legitimacy of an assessment of climate damages and the possibility of providing in due time reliable and non controversial estimates. Our results demonstrate that (a) for early decades abatement, the difference between various decision-making frameworks appears to matter less than the difference between stochastic and non stochastic approach given the cascade of uncertainty from emissions to damages; (b) in a stochastic approach, the possibility of non-catastrophic singularities in the damage function is sufficient to significantly increase earlier optimal abatements; (c) a window of opportunity for action exists up to 2040: abatements further delayed may induce significant regret in case of bad news about climate response or singularities in damages.     

Sensitive Parameters In Predicting Exposure Contaminants Concentration In A Risk Assessment Process

A sensitivity analysis (SA) was conducted on the analytical models considered in the risk-based corrective-action (RBCA) methodology of risk analysis, as developed by the American Society for Testing of Materials (ASTM), to predict a contaminant‘s concentration in the affected medium at the point of human exposure. These models are of interest because evaluations regarding the best approach to contaminated site remediation are shifting toward increased use of risk-based decision, and the ASTM RBCA methodology represents the most effective and internationally widely used standardized guide for risk assessment process. This paper identifies key physical and chemical parameters that need additional precision and accuracy consideration in order to reduce uncertainty in models prediction, thereby saving time, money and engineering effort in the data collection process. SA was performed applying a variance-based method to organic contaminants migration models with reference to soil-to-groundwater leaching ingestion exposure scenario. Results indicate that model output strongly depends on the organic-carbon partition coefficient, organic-carbon content, net infiltration, Darcy velocity, source-receptor distance, and first-order decay constant.     

A quantitative methodology for indexing environmental sensitivity and pollution potential

A methodology for rating the suitability of sites forthe location of industrial facilities is formulated and appliedto the case of a coal-fired power plant location. The methodologycomprises two major interlinked components: the environmentalplant location indexing component, which involves theidentification, scaling and weighting of environmentalsensitivity factors; and the impact analysis component, whichinvolves the superimposition of the pollution generation impactsof an industrial facility on spatially gridded zones of variousenvironmental sensitivities. For each rectangular areal unitdefined by a square grid, the Unit Pollution Potential Index isdetermined by the severity and distribution of key environmentalsensitivity factors and the coverage of superimposed pollutanteffects as determined by contaminant fate and transport models.For any alternative site of a planned facility, the summation ofthe unit indices over the area of influence of the facilityprovides the quantitative Pollution Index, which can be used as abasis for comparison of alternative sites for planned facilities.For this paper, this methodology is applied to the hypotheticalcase of the siting of a coal-fired power plant in thenortheastern region of the United States, in which threealternative sites are considered. The three sites: A, B and Cyielded indices of 47.83, 47.91 and 47.6, respectively, indicatingthat site C is the most suitable for siting the power plant.     

Modeling the Hydroclimatic Disturbance of Soil Landscapes in the Southern Canadian Plains: The Problems of Scale and Place

The sensitivity of soil landscapes to climatic variability andhydroclimatic events can be expressed as a landscape change safety factor, the ratio of potential disturbance to resistance to change. The use of a geographic information system (GIS) enables the spatially-explicit modeling of landscape sensitivity, but also raises the risk of violating the characteristic scales of disturbance and resistance, because the GIS technically simplifies the extrapolation of models, and associated concepts, to landscapes and scales notrepresented by the digital data base. Embedding landscape sensitivity into hierarchy theory, the formal analysis of the hierarchical structure of complex systems, provides a conceptual framework for the transfer of models and variablesamong landscape scales. In the subhumid southern Canadian plains, major hydroclimatic events (strong winds, intense rain,rapid snow melt) cause much of the physical disturbance of soillandscapes and terrestrial ecosystems. Prolonged dry or wet weather influences the resistance of soil and vegetation to these events. The potential disturbance of soil landscapes therefore can be derived from the probabilities of extreme events and seasonal conditions, as recorded in instrumental and proxy climate records. This time series analysis can belinked to the modeling of landscape sensitivity by establishingthe probabilities of hydroclimatic events and climatic conditions which may exceed or lower the resistance of individual soil landscapes.     

Influence of different digital terrain models (DTMs)on alpine permafrost modeling

The thawing of alpine permafrost due to changes in atmospheric conditions can have a severe impact, e.g., on the stability of rock walls. The energy balance model, PERMEBAL, was developed in order to simulate the changes and distribution of ground surface temperature (GST) in complex high-mountain topography. In such environments, the occurrence of permafrost depends greatly on the topography, and thus, the digital terrain model (DTM) is an important input of PERMEBAL. This study investigates the influence of the DTM on the modeling of the GST. For this purpose, PERMEBAL was run with six different DTMs. Five of the six DTMs are based on the same base data, but were generated using different interpolators. To ensure that only the topographic effect on the GST is calculated, the snow module was turned off and uniform conditions were assumed for the whole test area. The analyses showed that the majority of the deviations between the different model outputs related to a reference DTM had only small differences of up to 1 K, and only a few pixels deviated more than 1 K. However, we also observed that the use of different interpolators for the generation of a DTM can result in large deviations of the model output. These deviations were mainly found at topographically complex locations such as ridges and foot of slopes.     

不同生长阶段斑马鱼对Cu2+的毒性响应差异

为探究鱼类不同生长阶段对污染物的毒性响应差异,以斑马鱼为试验生物,初步建立了一套实验室分阶段培养方法,通过培养时间确定斑马鱼的不同生长阶段,研究了标准稀释水和模拟自来水条件下不同生长阶段斑马鱼对Cu2+的毒性响应差异,并利用物种敏感度分布法表达不同生长阶段斑马鱼对Cu2+的敏感性差异.结果表明:斑马鱼体长、体质量的变化均符合logistic增长方程（R2>0.97）,斑马鱼全生命周期按日龄可细分为卵黄囊仔鱼期（1 d）、晚期仔鱼期（10 d）、稚鱼期（17 d）、早幼期（24 d）、幼鱼期（31 d）、发育期（60 d）、成熟期（90 d）、成鱼期（120 d）等8个不同生长阶段.标准稀释水条件下,Cu2+对不同生长阶段斑马鱼的96 h-LC₅₀（96 h半致死浓度）分别为0.425 mg/L（1 d）、0.768 mg/L（10 d）、0.550 mg/L（17 d）、0.309 mg/L（24 d）、0.334 mg/L（31 d）、0.327 mg/L（60 d）、0.230 mg/L（90 d）和0.180 mg/L（120 d）,随着鱼龄的增加,Cu2+对斑马鱼的毒性逐渐增大;模拟自来水条件下,Cu2+对不同生长阶段斑马鱼的96 h-LC₅₀分别为0.377 mg/L（1 d）、0.438 mg/L（10 d）、0.366 mg/L（17 d）、0.201 mg/L（24 d）、0.206 mg/L（31 d）、0.189 mg/L（60 d）、0.167 mg/L（90 d）和0.144 mg/L（120 d）,随着鱼龄的增加,Cu2+对斑马鱼的毒性逐渐增大.根据96 h-LC₅₀得出不同生长阶段斑马鱼对Cu2+的敏感性顺序为120 d > 90 d > 24 d > 60 d > 31 d > 1 d > 17 d > 10 d,可见,斑马鱼成鱼期阶段对Cu2+较敏感,而成熟期和早幼期的敏感性次之,晚期仔鱼期最不敏感.研究显示,鉴于斑马鱼对Cu的物种敏感度的阶段性差异,采用24 d早幼期斑马鱼研究金属水质基准时既敏感又节约受试生物的培养成本,此外水环境参数也是水质基准研究需考虑的重要影响因素之一.      

基于层次分析法的医疗废物处置技术评价

针对我国目前应用的回转窑焚烧法、热解法、高温蒸汽灭菌法、化学消毒法、微波消毒法这5种医疗废物处置技术进行了分析和比较,并通过层次分析法对这5种方法进行了定量评估和筛选,在此基础上,对最优和次优备选方案排序权重进行了灵敏度分析.结果表明,回转窑焚烧法和热解法是目前我国医疗废物处置应用最广泛的技术;但层次分析法评估结果表明,高温蒸汽灭菌法用于医疗废物处置时在社会、环境、技术和经济4个因素方面综合效益与其他4种方法相比最优,化学消毒法次之;灵敏度分析表明,导致备选方案排序变化的准则层各因素变化点分别为社会因素(0. 2100)、环境因素(0. 3500)、技术因素(0. 1200)、经济因素(0. 2400),子准则层各因素对备选方案权重排序影响较小.     

A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 1: Flow,Water Temperature,Saltwater Intrusion

Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on United States (U.S.) water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al., we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses, and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest, and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid‐Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.     

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of agro-ecological modeling for saffron plant cultivation using GIS spatial decision-making methods

The main objective of this research is to model the uncertainty associated with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for crop suitability assessment. To achieve this goal, an integrated approach using GIS-MCDA in association with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and global sensitivity analysis (GSA) were applied for Saffron suitability mapping in East-Azerbaijan Province in Iran. The results of this study indicated that integration of MCDA with MCS and GSA could improve modeling precision by reducing data variance. Results indicated that applying the MCS method using the local training data leads to computing the spatial correlation between criteria weights and characteristics of the study area. Results of the GSA method also allow us to obtain the priority of criteria and identify the most important criteria and the variability of outputs under uncertainty conditions for model inputs. The findings showed that, commonly used primary zoning methods, without considering the interaction effects of variables, had significant errors and uncertainty in the output of MCDA-based suitability models, which should be minimized by the advanced complementarity of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.