国产防污漆中铜的海洋环境风险评估

为有效控制防污漆中杀生物活性物质给海洋环境带来的不利影响,亟需开展活性物质的环境风险评估研究,为筛选环境友好型活性物质提供依据。以25种国产防污漆中的铜为评估对象,采用防污漆活性物质环境风险评估的针对性方法,分步进行暴露评估、危害性评估和风险表征。暴露评估采用海洋防污剂预测环境浓度模型(MAMPEC)中的港口、码头和开阔海域等典型暴露场景;危害性评估基于铜对淡水和海水水生生物的慢性毒性数据,采用物种敏感度分布法和评估因子法;风险表征采用熵值法。结果表明,铜对全部水生生物和海水生物的预测无效应浓度分别为2.8和2.3μg·L~(-1),藻类对铜最为敏感。除1种配方外,其余24种防污漆配方中铜的风险熵均小于1,可判定铜为"相对低风险"类活性物质,使用上述防污漆时铜对生态环境造成的风险较小。铜在不同暴露场景中的环境风险分析表明其对水流交换较弱海域的码头造成的风险最大,其次是默认港口和码头,对于公海造成的风险最小。根据现有的评估结果,设计含铜型防污漆配方时,应使铜的释放速率不大于33.5μg·cm~(-2)·d~(-1),以避免对较封闭海域的生态环境造成不可忽视的风险。     

简化河流水质1号模型(RWQM1)实验研究

为了建立标准、一致的河流水质模型,并使它们可与标准活性污泥模型直接相连,国际水协会(IWA)专门成立了河流水质建模任务组,并发布河流水质1号模型(RWQM1)。根据河流水质1号模型(RWQM1)子模型选择原则,通过试验研究,得出以下两点结论:(1)简化河流水质1号模型能充分考虑废水生物处理自身的特点,较为深入地反映活性污泥生物反应过程的主要行为;(2)通过参数灵敏度分析,发现对模拟COD值影响较大的动力学参数是kgro,H,aer,To和khyd,To,对模拟TP值影响较大的动力学参数是kgro,H,aer,To、kgro,N1,To和βN1,对模拟NH3-N值影响较大的动力学参数是kgro,N1,To和βN1。     

泥石流对岩性的敏感性分析及其在危险性评价中的应用

泥石流对不同岩性的敏感程度存在很大的差异,而岩性在泥石流相关的科学研究中也难以量化使用。本研究选择三江并流区为研究区,采用工程地质岩组划分方法,将研究区的地质岩性分为14个工程地质岩组;进而引入岩性敏感度计算公式Fn = Nn / Sn,分析研究区泥石流灾害点分布与地质岩组的相关性,计算出泥石流对各地质岩组的敏感值。在ArcGIS 90平台的支持下,根据泥石流对岩性的敏感值,将研究区的地质岩性进行量化分级,划分为4个敏感性等级,并将本研究成果应用到三江并流区泥石流危险性评价的应用中。本文选择坡度、岩性、断裂、植被和人类工程活动等5个影响因子为泥石流危险性的评价指标,建立泥石流危险性评价模型,在GIS技术支持下,绘制研究区的泥石流危险性区划图。本研究结果与研究区已有的地质灾害点分布情况基本吻合,充分证明本研究方法是切实可行的,进而可为我国西南地区的地质灾害评价以及防灾减灾工作提供方法指导与参考     

CE-QUAL-W2在紫坪铺水库的应用及其参数敏感性分析

采用宽度平均立面二维水动力模型CE QUAL W2,对紫坪铺水库水温结构进行了数值模拟,运用库区实测资料进行了模型的参数率定及验证。库区及下泄水温的计算值与实测值吻合良好,显示模型能较好地模拟库区垂向水温分层的形成发展过程,以及升温期电站下泄水温变化,证实该模型对紫坪铺水库的水温模拟是适用的,也可为同类型水库提供参考。经参数灵敏度分析,发现水温模拟对模型中的风遮蔽系数与动态光遮蔽系数最为敏感,其余参数影响不明显,可取模型默认值。其中风遮蔽系数增大,风速加大,水库表层温度降低,水库垂向混合作用增强,温跃层下移,水温分层明显减弱,库底水温明显提升;动态光遮蔽系数增大,入射的太阳辐射增强,水库上层40 m水体温度升高,中下层水体温度无明显变化     

Sensitivity of key factors and uncertainties in health risk assessment of benzene pollutant

Predicting long-term potential human health risks from contaminants in the multimedia environment requires the use of models. However,there is uncertainty associated with these predictions of many parameters which can be represented by ranges or probability distributions rather than single value.Based on a case study with information from an actual site contaminated with benzene,this study describes the application of MMSOILS model to predict health risk and distributions of those predictions generated using Monte Carlo techniques.A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate which of the random variables are most important in producing the predicted distributions of health risks.The sensitivity analysis shows that the predicted distributions can be accurately reproduced using a small subset of the random variables.The practical implication of this analysis is the ability to distinguish between important versus unimportant random variables in terms of their sensitivity to selected endpoints.This directly translates into a reduction in data collection and modeling effort.It was demonstrated that how correlation coefficient could be used to evaluate contributions to overall uncertainty from each parameter.The integrated uncertainty analysis shows that although drinking groundwater risk is similar with inhalation air risk,uncertainties of total risk come dominantly from drinking groundwater route.Most percent of the variance of total risk comes from four random variables.     

Mechanisms of high-pressure hydrogen gas self-ignition in tubes

This paper describes a numerical and experimental investigation of hydrogen self-ignition occurring as a result of the formation of a shock wave. The shock wave is formed in front of high-pressure hydrogen gas propagating in a tube. The ignition of the hydrogen–air mixture occurs at the contact surface of the hydrogen and oxidant mixture and is due to the temperature increase produced as a result of the shock wave. The required condition for self-ignition is to maintain the high temperature in the mixture for a time long enough for inflammation to take place. The experimental technique employed was based on a high-pressure chamber pressurized with hydrogen, to the point of a burst disk operating to discharge pressurized hydrogen into a tube of cylindrical or rectangular cross section containing air. A physicochemical model involving gas-dynamic transport of a viscous gas, detailed kinetics of hydrogen oxidation and heat exchange in the laminar approach was used for calculations of high-pressure hydrogen self-ignition. The reservoir pressure range, when a shock wave is formed in the air that has sufficient intensity to produce self-ignition of the hydrogen–air mixture, is found. An analysis of governing physical phenomena based on the experimental and numerical results of the initial conditions (the hydrogen pressure inside the vessel, and the shape of the tube in which the hydrogen was discharged) and physical mechanisms that lead to combustion is presented.     

Comprehensive emergy evaluation and optimization of corn straw power generation system: a case study

Biomass energy has become an important measure to alleviate ecological environment security and energy supply security in China. Emergy accounting method is used to analyze and evaluate economy, environment, and sustainability of corn straw generation system, which includes corn planting subsystem, collection and transportation subsystem, and corn straw power generation subsystem. The key substances that need to be optimized in the system are identified by using sensitivity analysis. Based on the position of key substances in the system, emergy accounting optimization methodology is conducted. Corresponding optimization design scheme is proposed based on the “3R” (reduce, reuse, and recycle) principle of circular economy. Current study shows that emergy yield ratio, emergy investment ratio, environmental loading ratio, and emergy sustainability index of the corn straw power generation system are 3.69, 2.68, 1.61, and 2.29, respectively, which are better than wind power generation system and thermal power generation system. In addition, it is proposed that the fertilizer alternative plan and the transportation redesign plan can replace 50,000 tons potash and reduce equipment resources by 20% and energy resources input by 30%. Economy and sustainable development of the system is significantly improved. The optimization design method based on the “3R“ principle proposed in this paper can provide a useful reference for the research in the field of resource recycling.     

不同空间尺度下危化品运输路径优化

为了解决化工园区危化品运输路径优化问题,研究了化工“园区间”与“园区内”2种空间尺度下危化品运输的影响因素差异性,提出以最小化运输阻抗、最小化运输风险和最小化风险敏感度为优化目标的不同空间尺度下危化品运输路径优化模型。通过目标量化确定每条路径上的目标值,将标准化后的目标值引入到Dijkstra算法和集成目标函数最优折衷路径的扩展标号法中,对危化品运输多目标优化模型进行求解。研究结果表明:不同空间尺度下的危化品运输最优路径不同,应根据危化品运输的实际情况对运输路径进行选择。最后,以平顶山某化工园区的抽象路网为例对优化模型进行验证。     

Wave energy vs. other energy sources: A reassessment of the economics

The large scatter in the predictions of wave energy costs, which is caused in part by the simplifications assumed by existing models, is a hindrance for the development of this promising renewable. In this context, the main objective of this paper is to reassess the cost of wave energy taking into account a number of elements that are usually overlooked, or not considered simultaneously. This analysis has been performed in relation to the European context. The direct and indirect costs of a wave farm are examined, and a value for each is presented. The levelized cost (€/MWh) of wave energy is then calculated for different scenarios in order to compare the profitability of wave energy with that of other energy sources. After that, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the main parameters affecting the total cost, considering in particular the effect on the levelized cost of considering: (i) the cost reductions arising from economies of scale and technological effects; (ii) an O&M cost variable throughout the useful life of the farm; and (iii) the externalities. In sum, this work sets the basis for a thorough economic comparison of wave energy with other sources of energy.     

基于区间方法的岩质边坡稳定性非概率可靠性分析

在综合分析岩土参数区间性的基础上,通过引入区间分析方法和非概率可靠性思想,建立岩质边坡稳定的非概率可靠性模型,并针对区间运算结果扩张问题,引入区间截断法和区间优化法,对边坡非概率可靠性指标进行较为精确的求解。然后,以湖北某岩质高边坡为实例,进一步探讨了岩体参数变异性对岩质边坡稳定的非概率可靠性指标的影响规律。