应用物种敏感性分布评估中国近海和福建主要海湾水体重金属生态风险

利用物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distribution,SSD)方法构建常见重金属元素对海洋生物的SSD曲线,在此基础上,结合实际调查数据,计算了中国近海7种重金属(As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Pb、Zn)和福建主要海湾6种重金属(As、Cd、Cu、Hg、Pb、Zn)对海洋生物的潜在影响比例(PAF),并分析了各种重金属在相应海区的联合生态风险(msPAF)。结果表明,中国近海水体重金属对海洋生物的生态风险大小顺序为:渤海(20.67%)>黄海(18.39%)>东海(15.94%)>南海(11.26%)。福建主要海湾水体重金属对海洋生物的生态风险大小顺序为:泉州湾(47.44%)>厦门湾(47.16%)>罗源湾(43.03%)>沙埕港(34.65%)>深沪湾(30.34%)>三沙湾(28.64%)>闽江口(20.55%)>诏安湾(20.42%)>兴化湾(18.37%)>湄洲湾(17.24%)。     

北京地区二噁英类的环境多介质迁移和归趋模拟

以二噁英类为研究对象,利用LevelⅢ多介质逸度模型模拟计算了稳态假设下二噁英类在北京地区空气相、水相、土壤相和沉积物相中的浓度分布及各相间的迁移通量.结果表明:二噁英类在空气和土壤相中的模拟输出浓度(以I-TEQ计,全文同)范围分别为0.32～0.34 pg/m3和0.33～1.14 ng/kg,而相应环境相中的实测值分别为0.33 pg/m3和1.48 ng/kg,二者吻合较好,验证了该模型在北京地区的适用性;北京地区二噁英类的主要迁移过程为空气相—土相沉降和空气相—水相沉降.土壤和大气降解是二噁英类的主要消亡途径,二者占总降解量的99.1%.土壤相是二噁英类的最大储库,其占总量的97.8%.      

油气管道位移光纤安全监测技术定位理论及预警信号特征研究

管道安全分布式光纤监测系统利用分布式光纤振动传感器两端检测信号的时间差确定管道沿线所发生事件位置,时间差的精度决定对异常事件事发点的定位精度;系统拥有较高的灵敏度,可对1.5 km内敲击、落石、滚石及人工挖掘等威胁管道安全的事件进行报警;事件的定位有一定的误差,对抢修有一定的指导意义。     

烟花爆竹烟火药剂危险性评价方法

为预防涉及烟花爆竹用烟火药剂的事故,应当在大规模制造、使用、储存之前,初步评估其危险性。在大量文献调研和专家建议基础上,选取机械感度(撞击和摩擦)和热感度作为烟火药安全性的最主要的指标。基于危险度的定义,用摩擦感度、撞击感度和热感度表征可能性,用最大放热量原则计算的放热量表征严重度,提出一种简便的,对烟花爆竹用烟火药剂的危险性进行评价的方法。运用此种方法得到的几种药剂的危险性等级比较符合实际情况。     

铝粉超细化对KClO3/Al/S配方药剂特性的影响

为研究铝粉超细化后对烟火药剂性能的影响,将普通铝粉和纳米铝粉分别与氯酸钾、硫黄粉按照零氧平衡的同一配比(17%Al+63%KClO3+20%S)配制成烟火药剂,分别用0#样品和1#样品表示。用ARC、WL-1型落锤仪和MGY-1型摆式摩擦感度仪等试验装置从热安全性、撞击感度和摩擦感度等方面进行对比试验。结果表明,与含普通铝粉的0#样品相比,含纳米铝粉的1#烟火药剂热分解的初始反应温度明显降低(118.67℃<123.3℃),反应到达最大温升速率所需的时间明显延长(4.94min>0.13 min),反应所能达到的最高压力明显降低(2.77 MPa/g<3.14 MPa/g),反应动力学因子明显降低(361.85 kJ/mol<409.41 kJ/mol),撞击感度明显下降(12%<100%)。这说明铝粉粒径对药剂的性能有一定的影响。纳米铝粉的加入在加速烟火药剂反应进程的同时,可有效降低其反应的激烈程度、压力危险性和撞击危险性,即铝粉超细化后可以有效改善烟火药剂的性能,提高其安全性。     

Simulation analysis on structure safety of coal mine mobile refuge chamber under explosion load

In order to check structural strength of coal mine mobiles refuge chamber, and do security evaluation of the mobile refuge chamber, a refuge chamber model was established, then a finite element method was instituted for it to ensure the refuge chamber would not be severely damaged when gas or coal dust explosion suddenly happened. A triangle shock wave with 1.2 MPa over-pressure, 300 ms lasting time was settled. Explicit nonlinear dynamic analysis program was used to simulate response of the refuge chamber. The maximum stress was 244 MPa, located in central part of sides and tail end of the last capsule. The maximum displacement was 29.32 mm, located in central part of sides and tail end of the last capsule. The calculation indicated that the refuge chamber was not obviously damaged. It could reliable work to meet safety requirements. Compared with the reported experimental results, the simulation method was verified. Based on analysis, suggestions were put forward for further improving.     

梭鱼和青鳉鱼ERα介导的雌激素活性比较研究

为从物种雌激素受体(ERα)敏感性差异的角度探索辽东湾野生梭鱼雌雄同体高发生率的一个可能原因,从梭鱼肝脏cDNA中扩增出长1113 bp的梭鱼ERα(sERα) DEF区片段,并以此构建pGBT9-sERα DEF 质粒,将其和pGAD424-TIF2质粒依次转入Y190酵母细胞中,建立了sERα物种特异性的酵母双杂交筛选系统.在此系统中测试了4种环境中主要的雌激素雌酮(E1)、17β-雌二醇(E2)、雌三醇(E3)及17α-炔雌醇(EE2)对梭鱼ERα的诱导活性,半数雌激素活性浓度(EC50)为3.7、2.4、1698.7、1.2nmol/L,分别是青鳉鱼ERα活性的4.6、2.3、3.4、3.3倍,说明梭鱼ERα对E1、E2、E3、EE2具有较高的敏感性,这为解释辽东湾梭鱼雌雄同体的高发生现象提供了重要线索.     

Comparison of sensitivity analysis techniques: A case study with the rice model WARM

The considerable complexity often included in biophysical models leads to the need of specifying a large number of parameters and inputs, which are available with various levels of uncertainty. Also, models may behave counter-intuitively, particularly when there are nonlinearities in multiple input-output relationships. Quantitative knowledge of the sensitivity of models to changes in their parameters is hence a prerequisite for operational use of models. This can be achieved using sensitivity analysis (SA) via methods which differ for specific characteristics, including computational resources required to perform the analysis. Running SA on biophysical models across several contexts requires flexible and computationally efficient SA approaches, which must be able to account also for possible interactions among parameters. A number of SA experiments were performed on a crop model for the simulation of rice growth (Water Accounting Rice Model, WARM) in Northern Italy. SAs were carried out using the Morris method, three regression-based methods (Latin hypercube sampling, random and Quasi-Random, LpTau), and two methods based on variance decomposition: Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (E-FAST) and Sobol’, with the latter adopted as benchmark. Aboveground biomass at physiological maturity was selected as reference output to facilitate the comparison of alternative SA methods. Rankings of crop parameters (from the most to the least relevant) were generated according to sensitivity experiments using different SA methods and alternate parameterizations for each method, and calculating the top-down coefficient of concordance (TDCC) as measure of agreement between rankings. With few exceptions, significant TDCC values were obtained both for different parameterizations within each method and for the comparison of each method to the Sobol’ one. The substantial stability observed in the rankings seem to indicate that, for a crop model of average complexity such as WARM, resource intensive SA methods could not be needed to identify most relevant parameters. In fact, the simplest among the SA methods used (i.e., Morris method) produced results comparable to those obtained by methods more computationally expensive.     

Structural equation-based latent growth curve modeling of watershed attribute-regulated stream sensitivity to reduced acidic deposition

Little information is available about the effects of watershed attributes on long-term stream chemical responses to reduced acidic deposition. Long-term chemical data (1980-2006) for 21 stream sites from the Appalachian Mountain region and data of 8 watershed attributes of the corresponding watersheds were analyzed to study such effects. Latent growth curve modeling (LGM), a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach, was conducted to quantify stream sensitivity to reduced acidic deposition in the region, and to model the initial chemical conditions (intercepts) and changing rates (slopes) in three time periods: 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. The modeled chemical trends were generally consistent with those trends which were detected by trend analyses in a previous study. Watershed attributes including area, mean elevation, percentage of developed land, percentage of grassland, percentages of shale and sandstone, percentage of barren land, and percentage of soil type Gilpin-Upshur-Vandalia (GUV) were found to affect stream sensitivity to the reduced acidic deposition with their importance in the respective order. The stream sensitivity in turn regulated streams’ chemical initial conditions and their changing rates in the studied watersheds. This innovative application of LGM for modeling long-term chemical trends advanced our understanding of the role of watershed attributes in regulating streams’ responses to reduced acidic deposition. This approach can be applied for evaluating streams’ responses to acidic deposition in other regions and, more broadly, for studying causal effects on long-term behaviors in other ecological and environmental science subjects.     

改进USLE模型及其在于桥水库非点源污染敏感区划分中的应用

根据于桥水库周边流域非点源污染的特点,在充分考虑污染源与水库的距离以及库体自净作用因子的基础上,对饮用水源地非点源敏感区划分的通用土壤流失方程（USLE）方法进行了改进。结合2009年库区周边的ETM遥感影像、数字高程模型（DEM）和土地利用类型等数据,应用改进的USLE模型对库区周边非点源污染敏感区划分进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,库区西部的敏感性明显高于东部,库周的别山镇、五百户镇、渔阳镇、穿芳峪乡和马伸桥镇的水库沿岸是非点源污染敏感度较高的区域,是非点源污染的优先控制区。