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771.
Peter R. Jaffe 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(3):585-592
ABSTRACT: Water quality data collected between 1978 and 1981 in a highly lake in Northern Venezuela, Lake Valencia, were analyzed to detect spatial and temporal trends. Based on the results of the analyses, an appropriate nutrient-algae dynamics model was formulated. Because many parameters, such as the algae concentration were constant over time, and the model is time dependent, the model had to be calibrated with the use of a large and structured trial-and-error calibration process. Through the calibration process, the most sensitive parameters of the model were identified, and are in order of importance: the chlorophyll-to-nitrogen ratio for algae, the algae settling velocity, the phosphorus release rate from the sediments, the chlorophyll-to-phosphorus ratio for algae, and the exchange coefficient in the upper layer of the lake. Model simulations showed that a reduction in the nitrogen load to the lake as well as a reduction in the phosphorus load will decrease the algae population. These model simulations had a high degree of uncertainty associated with them, making additional sampling directed towards the measurement of the sensitive parameters desirable. 相似文献
772.
The shellfish aquaculture industry (SAI) has operated in Baynes Sound, British Columbia (BC) since the early 1900s. Recognizing the economic potential of the area, the industry has requested additional farming opportunities. However, Baynes Sound upland residents and many other stakeholders have expressed concerns that SAI activities are having a negative impact on the environment, quality of life, and other nonaquaculture resource uses in the area. In order to address these issues, the Action Plan was initiated by a BC government interagency project team in November 2001. To assist in assessing the strategic aspects of this conflict, the decision support system GMCR II is employed here to apply a new methodology, the graph model for conflict resolution, to systematically analyze the ongoing conflict over shellfish aquaculture development in Baynes Sound within a social, economic, and environmental framework. Valuable insights are procured to guide decision-makers toward sustainability of the shellfish industry. 相似文献
773.
Peter E. Levy Renate Wendler Marcel Van Oijen Melvin G. R. Cannell Peter Millard 《Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus》2004,4(6):67-74
Estimates of the global carbon sink induced by nitrogen enrichment range vary widely, from nearly zero to 2.3 Gt C year-1. It is necessary to reduce this uncertainty if we are to make accurate predictions of the future magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Here, we present a Monte Carlo approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of three ecosystem models, Century,BGCand Hybrid. These models were applied to a coniferous forest ecosystem in Sweden. The best estimate of the change in total carbon content of the ecosystem with the cumulative change in nitrogen deposition over 100 years, Ctotal/Ndeposition was 20.1 kg C (kg N)-1 using the pooled mean, with a pooled standard deviation of 13.8 kg C (kg N)-1. Variability in parameters accounted for 92% of the total uncertainty in Ctotal/Ndeposition, and only 8% was attributable to differences between models. The most sensitive parameters were those which controlled the allocation of assimilate between leaves, roots and stem. In particular, an increase in allocation to fine roots led to a large reduction in Ctotal/Ndeposition in all models, because the fine roots have a very high turnover rate, and extra carbon allocated there is soon lost through mortality and decomposition. 相似文献
774.
Alexander C. Demetracopoulos George P. Korfiatis Efst. L. Bourodimos Edward G. Nawy 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(4):601-609
ABSTRACT: The movement of precipitation water infiltrating through the material (refuse) of solid waste landfills is examined via numerical solution of the equations of continuity, and motion (Darcy's Law). The solution of the equations is obtained by a fully implicit, finite-difference scheme. Both unsaturated and saturated surface conditions are considered, making the scheme suitable for real-time simulation of net precipitation and moisture redistribution events. A sensitivity analysis showed that for unsaturated surface conditions the solution is primarily affected by hydraulic conductivity and capillary diffusivity, and is relatively independent of the space and time steps. In addition, the precipitation averaging process is shown to be critical in the correct computation of moisture transport during the time period where the transition from unsaturated to saturated conditions occurs. The model presented herein is suitable for analysis of water movement through landfills, and the design of bottom collection systems. 相似文献
775.
Dornhnall T. O'Laoghaire David M. Himmelblau 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1972,8(4):653-668
ABSTRACT. Individuals and organizations concerned with the expansion of the facilities of a river basin (such as a river basin authority) need to determine optimal strategies of operation and capital investment. They also need to examine the sensitivity of whatever planning decisions are contemplated. This paper extends the applicability of an algorithm that had been previously applied to the deterministic river-basin expansion problem to include the feature of a sensitivity analysis. The algorithm, containing a partial enumeration search technique and a network analysis code, gave a construction sequence of reservoirs, canals, and treatment plants, and an operating policy that maximized the present value of net earnings consistent with certain underlying assumptions. A river basin was chosen that had an existing configuration of unregulated streams and rivers, reservoirs, canals and treatment plants, and sites for future additional facilities. A series of representative synthetic flow sequences, future demand profiles, interest rates and reservoir costs that served as inputs to or parameters in the system were each perturbed by various factors (for a total of 24 cases). The sensitivity studies showed that the immediate planning decision of what facility to construct next was insensitive to variations in future demands and costs and independent of later decisions. Thus, decision-making was adaptive in the sense that by always making the optimal proximate decision, the management of the river basin is optimized. 相似文献
776.
ABSTRACT: A framework for sensitivity and error analysis in mathematical modeling is described and demonstrated. The Lake Eutrophication Analysis Procedure (LEAP) consists of a series of linked models which predict lake water quality conditions as a function of watershed land use, hydrolgic variables, and morphometric variables. Specification of input variables as distributions (means and standard errors) and use of first-order error analysis techniques permits estimation of output variable means, standard errors, and confidence ranges. Predicted distributions compare favorably with those estimated using Monte-Carlo simulation. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to data from Lake Morey, Vermont. While possible biases exist in the models calibrated for this application, prediction variances, attributed chiefly to model error, are comparable to the observed year-to-year variance in water quality, as measured by spring phosphorus concentration, hypolimnetic oxygen depletion rate, summer chlorophyll-a, and summer transparency in this lake. Use of the framework provides insight into important controlling factors and relationships and identifies the major sources of uncertainty in a given model application. 相似文献
777.
基于扰动分析方法的AnnAGNPS模型水文水质参数敏感性分析 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
参数敏感性分析对于水文水质综合模型的构建及推广应用具有重要的意义.本研究基于AnnAGNPS模型机制,选取可能对模型产生影响的地形、水文气象、田间管理、土壤等4大类31个参数,以太湖地区典型低山丘陵小流域——中田河流域为实验区,利用扰动分析方法评价了模型参数对水文水质模拟结果的敏感性.结果表明,11个地形参数中,LS对径流、泥沙与氮磷等模拟结果普遍敏感,RMN、RS和RVC对泥沙输出分别为一般敏感和弱敏感,其余参数不敏感.水文气象参数中CN对模型径流和泥沙输出特别敏感,对其余结果也都比较敏感.田间管理与植被作物肥料参数中CCC、CRM和RR对泥沙和颗粒态污染物输出弱敏感,6个肥料参数(FR、FD、FID、FOD、FIP、FOP)对氮磷营养盐输出特别敏感.土壤参数中,K对模型除径流之外的所有结果都特别敏感,土壤氮磷含量的4个参数(SONR、SINR、SOPR、SIPR)对相对应的氮磷输出结果弱敏感.通过对中田河流域2005~2010年径流量的模拟和校正检验发现,模拟期与校正期年径流量偏差基本都在10%以内,模拟精度优秀.本研究对AnnAGNPS模型构建中的参数选取与校验调整具有直接参考价值,对研究区的径流模拟结果也证明了模型敏感性分析对于调参过程的可行性和该模型在太湖地区低山丘陵流域径流模拟的适用性,对于模型在国内的推广应用具有重要的指导意义. 相似文献
778.
本研究以3种钢铁厂碱渣直接法固碳技术为研究对象,该技术将钢渣进行碳酸化处理,可快速永久地将CO2固化储存在钢渣中,气固相反应可分别在高压釜、泥浆反应器和超重力旋转床的水溶液中一步完成,并将其分别定义为T1、T2、T3.通过Umberto软件建立生命周期模型,对3种技术的资源环境影响进行评估.结果表明,T1的环境影响最高,其次为T3,T2的环境影响最小.技术评价显示,T3在技术效率、资源消耗、环境影响方面具有较好的综合效益.敏感性分析表明,加热效率的敏感性系数分别为0.97、0.97和0.46.转换率与温室气体排放的关系分别呈上升、倒U型和下降的变化趋势.提高加热效率、合理利用热源及选择合适的技术效率,将有利于技术优化,减少技术的环境影响,提高固碳效率. 相似文献
779.
780.
系统分析了南淝河丰水期和枯水期表层水及沉积物中As、Cd、Cr、Cu和Pb的含量,结果表明:Cd污染最为严重,表层水中Cd含量属于劣Ⅴ类地表水标准,沉积物中Cd含量超过合肥市土壤背景值,最高值达到背景值的7.5倍;单因子水质指数法评价结果显示Cd未达到水体功能区目标,其余元素基本达到了水体功能区目标,地累积指数评价结果表明各采样点污染程度在无污染到轻度污染之间,潜在生态风险指数评价结果显示各采样点均属于中度生态危害水平,3种评价结果均显示Cd是主要污染因子。主成分分析结果表明南淝河沉积物中不同时期重金属污染来源存在一定差异性和多样性。 相似文献