基于蚁群算法的烟气中人员疏散路径选择优化

针对火灾烟气环境下的人员疏散问题,分析人员密度以及烟气能见度对疏散速度以及最佳疏散路径的影响。首先,得到烟气及人员密度对疏散速度的修正函数,并将该函数同蚁群算法的启发式信息函数进行耦合;其次,改进蚁群算法求解最佳路径的局限性,建立1种基于蚁群算法的人员疏散路径算法模型;最后,将算法模型应用于实例研究。研究结果表明:所提出的模型可较好地优化人员疏散路径,并进一步提高人员疏散效率。     

深埋地下空间电梯楼梯协同疏散的仿真实验研究

为研究灾害中如何有效疏散人员的问题,依托重庆沙坪坝综合交通枢纽工程,通过pathfinder软件对沙坪坝综合交通枢纽地下空间人员疏散进行仿真模拟,研究电梯楼梯协同疏散在人员密集地下空间建筑疏散的可行性。结果表明:电梯楼梯协同疏散相对于传统楼梯疏散具有更大的优势,疏散时间相比传统疏散方式减少了约一半。     

微波作用下煤层渗透性变化规律实验研究

为了深入研究微波辐射条件下功率、辐射时间、渗透率、有效应力之间的关系,采用自行设计的微波辐射含瓦斯煤渗流实验系统,进行了不同微波功率、不同辐射时间条件下的煤样渗透率测量实验。研究结果表明:微波辐射条件下,渗透率与有效应力之间遵循负指数函数关系,拟合结果R2均大于0.98;渗透率随微波功率和辐射时间的增加单调递增,并且在低有效应力区数据增长的线性拟合斜率大于高有效应力区;煤样在微波作用下,相同的能量输入,微波功率越高,煤样渗透率越大;研究结果为微波辐射技术在煤层气开采领域的应用提供理论参考。     

超高层住宅楼的内天井尺寸对自然排烟影响的数值模拟研究

火灾时超高层住宅楼的内天井会形成"烟囱效应",烟气可能通过面向内天井的开启窗户进入四周住宅。利用FDS数值模拟的方法研究火源位置、火源功率和内天井的高度、长度对超高层住宅楼内天井自然排烟的影响。研究结果表明:火源位于内天井四周某住宅时,若住宅内喷淋系统有效,内天井四周其它住宅不会达到危险状态。火源位于内天井底部时,4.0MW的火灾可能会使内天井四周其它住宅受到火灾烟气影响,达到危险状态,此时内天井四周其它住宅到达危险时间与内天井高度满足二次增长函数,到达危险时间随高度的增加趋于稳定。内天井长度d存在临界值,d≤10m时到达危险时间与内天井长度满足二次增长函数;d10m时到达危险时间接近稳定值。     

Forecasting the Probability of Future Groundwater Levels Declining Below Specified Low Thresholds in the Conterminous U.S.

We present a logistic regression approach for forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining or maintaining below specific groundwater‐level thresholds. We tested our approach on 102 groundwater wells in different climatic regions and aquifers of the United States that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Climate Response Network. We evaluated the importance of current groundwater levels, precipitation, streamflow, seasonal variability, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and atmosphere/ocean indices for developing the logistic regression equations. Several diagnostics of model fit were used to evaluate the regression equations, including testing of autocorrelation of residuals, goodness‐of‐fit metrics, and bootstrap validation testing. The probabilistic predictions were most successful at wells with high persistence (low month‐to‐month variability) in their groundwater records and at wells where the groundwater level remained below the defined low threshold for sustained periods (generally three months or longer). The model fit was weakest at wells with strong seasonal variability in levels and with shorter duration low‐threshold events. We identified challenges in deriving probabilistic‐forecasting models and possible approaches for addressing those challenges.     

Evaluating Flow Metric‐Based Stream Classification Systems to Support the Determination of Ecological Flows in North Carolina

Hydroecological classification systems are typically based on an assemblage of streamflow metrics and seek to divide streams into ecologically relevant classes. Assignment of streams to classes is suggested as an initial step in the process of establishing ecological flow standards. We used two distinct hydroecological river classification systems available within North Carolina to evaluate the ability of a hydrologic model to assign the same classes as those determined by observed streamflows and to assess the transferability of such systems to ungaged streams. Class assignments were examined by rate of overall matches, rate of class matches, spatial variability in matches, and time period used in class assignment. The findings of this study indicate assignments of stream class: (1) are inconsistent among different classification systems; (2) differ between observed and modeled data; and (3) are sensitive to the period of record within observed data. One clear source of inconsistency/sensitivity in class assignments lies with the use of threshold values for metrics that distinguish stream classes, such that even small changes in metric values can result in different class assignments. Because these two hydroecological classification systems are representative of other classification systems that rely on quantitative decision thresholds, it can be surmised that the use of such systems based on stream flow metrics is not a reliable approach for guiding ecological flow determinations.     

全国大气润湿时间分布分析软件开发

软件以小方块在地图上标注全国195个地区的实际位置,按ISO 9223标准对各地区的年润湿时间进行分级,并以不同的颜色对应不同的等级。使用软件可查询1991年至2000年全国195个地区大气润湿时间的分布状况;不同临界相对湿度的润湿时间;各年润湿时间的变化规律情况,包括10年润湿时间的平均值和标准差;年润湿时间在各温度段所占的比例。     

Quantification of Water, Salt and Nutrient Exchange Processes at the Mouth of A mediterranean Coastal Lagoon

Vassova lagoon is a typical Mediterranean (small, shallow, micro-tidal, well-mixed) coastal lagoon, receiving limited seasonal freshwater inflows from direct precipitation and underground seepage. An intensive study was carried out in order to quantify the mechanisms responsible for the intra-tidal and residual transport of water, salt, nutrients and chlorophyll at the mouth of this lagoon and to assess the lagoon's flushing behavior. Results indicated that although the system is micro-tidal, tidal effects appeared to be the dominant factor for the longitudinal distribution of physical and chemical parameters, while the associated residual flow is also important and serves as a baseline measure of overall circulation. However, analysis of the net longitudinal currents and fluxes of water, salt and nutrients revealed the importance of non-tidal effects (wind effect and precipitation incidents) in the mean tidal transport. It is shown that the Eulerian residual currents transported water and its properties inwards under southern winds, while a seaward transport was induced during precipitation incidents and northern winds. The Stokes drift effect was found an order of magnitude lower than the Eulerian current, directed towards the lagoon, proving the partially-progressive nature of the tide. Nutrients and chlorophyll-α loads are exported from the lagoon to the open sea during the ebb phase of the autumn and winter tidal cycles, associated with the inflow of nutrient-rich freshwater, seeped through the surrounding drainage canal. The reverse transport occurs in spring and early summer, when nutrients enter the lagoon during the flood tidal phase, from the nutrient-rich upper layer of the stratified adjacent sea. Application of a tidal prism model shows that Vassova lagoon has a mean flushing time of 7.5 days, ranging between 4 to 18 days, affected inversely by the tidal oscillation.