A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

The risks and benefits associated with efforts to control invasive alien species using classical biological control are being subjected to increasing scrutiny. A process-based population dynamics model was developed to explore the interactions between a folivorous biological control agent, Cleopus japonicus, and its plant host Buddleja davidii. The model revealed that climate could have a significant impact upon the interactions between B. davidii and C. japonicus. At the coolest sites, the impact of C. japonicus on B. davidii was slowed, but it was still eventually capable of controlling populations of B. davidii. At the warmer sites where both B. davidii and C. japonicus grew faster, B. davidii succumbed rapidly to weevil damage. We hypothesise that barring an encounter with a natural enemy, C. japonicus will eventually be able to provide sustained control B. davidii throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The model scenarios illustrate the potential for the C. japonicus population to attain high densities rapidly, and to defoliate patches of B. davidii, creating the potential for spill-over feeding on non-target plants. The potential magnitude of this threat will depend partly on the climate suitability for C. japonicus, the pattern by which it migrates in response to a reduction in the available leaf resource, and the suitability of non-target plants as hosts. In all migration scenarios considered, the pattern of population growth and resource consumption by C. japonicus was exponential, with a strong tendency toward complete utilisation of resource patches more quickly at the warmer compared to colder sites. In addition to providing some useful hypotheses about the effects of climate on the biological control system, and the non-target risks, it also provides some insight into the mechanisms by which climate affects the system.     

Fatal motorcycle crashes in wide urban area of Zagreb,Croatia—A 10-year review

Objective: The objective of our study was to determine the prevalence of alcohol and drug intoxication among fatally injured motorcyclists in a wide urban area of Zagreb, Croatia.

Methods: We conducted a single-center observational retrospective study over a 10-year period (2007–2016) in 3 counties covering an area including 1.2 million residents. We reviewed the records on fatally injured motorcyclists, collecting information relating to sex, age, cause of death, time of death in relation to the time of the crash, and the circumstances of the crash (time of day, day of the week, season). Blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and toxicology analysis results were collected and analyzed.

Results: We identified 163 deaths (95.7% males, 4.3% females). Overall, 64.2% of the victims were 20 to 39 years old. The majority (50.9%) of those fatally injured were responsible for causing the traffic crash; the rest were determined not to be responsible or the responsibility could not be determined. The most frequent causes of death were multiple injuries (55.8%) and isolated head trauma (23.3%). The rider’s BAC was above the legal limit for driving (>0.50?g/kg) in 53.8% of cases, with a mean BAC of 1.91?g/kg. There was no difference in riding a motorcycle with a BAC above the legal limit between groups defined as younger (≤39 years of age) and older (≥40 years of age). The number of people with an illegal BAC was significantly higher during weekends than during the work week. The BAC of riders who were responsible for the crash was significantly higher than that of those who were not responsible or whose responsibility could not be determined. Use of illegal drugs or nontherapeutic use of legal drugs was not common and was detected in 10.4% of fatally injured riders.

Conclusions: Alcohol intoxication has a major role in motorcycle crash–related mortality. A significant difference in BAC between fatally injured riders responsible for the accident and those who were not responsible implies that measures directed toward prevention of drinking and driving behavior could lower the number of fatal motorcycle crashes. Weekend measures, especially during spring and summer, could have particularly significant effects.     

旁压（夹绳）式起重量限制器引起起重机带电的原因分析与对策

采用钢丝绳受力作为信号输出的旁压（夹绳）式起重量限制器易引起触电事故,本文分析了旁压（夹绳）式起重量限制器的正确安装方法及限重原理,剖析了现有旁压（夹绳）式起重量限制器使用不当引发起重机触电风险及危害,提出了避免事故的对策及做到本质安全的相关措施。     

系统动力学模型在城市发展规划环评中的应用

鉴于作为评价对象的城市社会经济环境复合系统具有多目标、多要素、动态关联等突出的系统动力学特征,选择和应用系统动力学方法开展城市发展规划环评在理论上具有可行性和技术优势.作为典型资源型城市的山西省临汾市正面临转变发展方式和加快环境治理的紧迫要求,本文依托该市转型发展规划环评工作,在全面识别和剖析城市发展要素、现状问题及其成因基础上,以经济发展、产业结构、节能减排和环境改善为重点研究了规划要素间的动态反馈关系,以此构建城市转型发展规划环评SD模型,并对4个规划替代方案进行模拟和评价.结果显示,在环境目标刚性约束下所有替代方案均不能实现人均GDP翻番的较高经济增长目标,其中以较强环境约束为特征的“方案III”具有最好的环境与经济综合效果.据此评价建议临汾市应在确保实现环境改善目标的前提下主动放缓工业增长速度,同时加快以“煤焦铁电”为代表的主导产业结构调整并继续加大节能减排力度,全面提高城市可持续发展能力.     

矿山废弃地生态退化程度评价

矿山废弃地是受采矿影响极度退化的生态系统,生态退化程度评价是对矿山废弃地生态质量现状、环境影响和治理难度的评估过程,可用于指导矿山废弃地生态环境影响评价和生态恢复规划编制等。本文分别尾矿库、露采迹地、排岩场和压占区4种矿山废弃地类型,采用兼顾自然因子和人为干扰强度因子的评价方法,通过对主要生态、环境问题的分析,选择导致生态系统退化的主要因子或易于反映生态系统质量的自然因子和人为干扰强度因子作为生态退化评价指标,评价指标来自于工程设计条件、土壤、植被和地质安全性4个方面;首先采用层次分析法确定各评价指标权重,其中占用面积和地表破坏程度是最最要的指标;在生态退化等级划分基础上确定了各评价指标的域值,并将各指标量化和标准化,计算各生态退化等级的综合得分值变化范围,建立了矿山废弃地生态退化程度综合评价方法体系,将生态退化程度划分为可自然恢复、可治理、难于治理和不能治理4个等级。最后,针对遵化市典型民营铁矿进行了案例适用性分析,并对不同退化等级的废弃地进行了生态防护措施分析。     

煤矿区生态累积效应评价研究进展

煤炭开采活动的特点决定了其对矿区生态环境的影响具有明显的累积效应。在梳理生态累积效应概念和特征的基础上,结合煤矿区各类活动的特点综述了煤矿区生态累积效应的影响源、途径、效应及类型,并评述了目前国内外有关煤矿区生态累积效应的相关研究。目前针对煤矿区生态累积效应的研究仍十分有限,评价方法也尚不成熟。关于煤矿区的生态累积效应研究主要集中在效应评价方面,有关生态累积效应的发生机理、指标体系构建、评价方法学、管理规划及应对机制,是未来应加强的重点研究领域。     

A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on U.K. breeding bird populations

Wet grassland populations of wading birds in the United Kingdom have declined severely since 1990. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact of these reserves on bird population trends has not been evaluated experimentally due to a lack of control populations. We compared population trends from 1994 to 2018 among 5 bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends created from matched breeding bird survey observations. We compared reserve trends with 3 different counterfactuals based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation. Effects of conservation interventions were positive for all 4 targeted wading bird species: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata), and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large-scale evaluation of conservation impact.     

Reconciling multiple counterfactuals when evaluating biodiversity conservation impact in social-ecological systems

When evaluating the impact of a biodiversity conservation intervention, a counterfactual is typically needed. Counterfactuals are possible alternative system trajectories in the absence of an intervention. Comparing observed outcomes against the chosen counterfactual allows the impact (change attributable to the intervention) to be determined. Because counterfactuals by definition never occur, they must be estimated. Sometimes, there may be many plausible counterfactuals, including various drivers of biodiversity change and defined on a range of spatial or temporal scales. Here, we posit that, by definition, conservation interventions always take place in social-ecological systems (SES) (i.e., ecological systems integrated with human actors). Evaluating the impact of an intervention in an SES, therefore, means taking into account the counterfactuals assumed by different human actors. Use of different counterfactuals by different actors will give rise to perceived differences in the impacts of interventions, which may lead to disagreement about its success or the effectiveness of the underlying approach. Despite that there are biophysical biodiversity trends, it is often true that no single counterfactual is definitively the right one for conservation assessment, so multiple evaluations of intervention efficacy could be considered justifiable. Therefore, we propose calculating the sum of perceived differences, which captures the range of impact estimates associated with different actors in a given SES. The sum of perceived differences gives some indication of how closely actors in an SES agree on the impacts of an intervention. We applied the concept of perceived differences to a set of global, national, and regional case studies (e.g., global realization of Aichi Target 11 for marine protected areas, effect of biodiversity offsetting on vegetation condition in Australia, and influence of conservation measures on an endangered ungulate in Central Asia). We explored approaches for minimizing the sum, including a combination of negotiation and structured decision making, careful alignment of expectations on scope and measurement, and explicit recognition of any intractable differences between stakeholders.     

Understand the local and regional contributions on air pollution from the view of human health impacts

• PM_2.5-related deaths were estimated to be 227 thousand in BTH & surrounding regions. • Local emissions contribute more to PM_2.5-related deaths than PM_2.5 concentration. • Local controls are underestimated if only considering its impacts on concentrations. • Rural residents suffer larger impacts of regional transport than urban residents. • Reducing regional transport benefits in mitigating environmental inequality. The source-receptor matrix of PM_2.5 concentration from local and regional sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and surrounding provinces has been created in previous studies. However, because the spatial distribution of concentration does not necessarily match with that of the population, such concentration-based source-receptor matrix may not fully reflect the importance of pollutant control effectiveness in reducing the PM_2.5-related health impacts. To demonstrate that, we study the source-receptor matrix of the PM_2.5-related deaths instead, with inclusion of the spatial correlations between the concentrations and the population. The advanced source apportionment numerical model combined with the integrated exposure–response functions is used for BTH and surrounding regions in 2017. We observed that the relative contribution to PM_2.5-related deaths of local emissions was 0.75% to 20.77% larger than that of PM_2.5 concentrations. Such results address the importance of local emissions control for reducing health impacts of PM_2.5 particularly for local residents. Contribution of regional transport to PM_2.5-related deaths in rural area was 22% larger than that in urban area due to the spatial pattern of regional transport which was more related to the rural population. This resulted in an environmental inequality in the sense that people staying in rural area with access to less educational resources are subjected to higher impacts from regional transport as compared with their more resourceful and knowledgeable urban compatriots. An unexpected benefit from the multi-regional joint controls is suggested for its effectiveness in reducing the regional transport of PM_2.5 pollution thus mitigating the associated environmental inequality.     

鄱阳湖大型底栖动物群落结构的空间分布及影响因子研究

由于受人类活动干扰的加强以及受与长江干流之间"江湖关系"变化的影响,近年来鄱阳湖水生生态系统的状况及变化受到较多关注。对底栖动物群落结构的研究将有助于了解鄱阳湖生态系统结构现状及影响因子,对鄱阳湖保护对策的制定形成有效支撑。2016年7月,对鄱阳湖湖区(分别于鄱阳湖保护区和南矶山保护区)的底栖动物群落结构及相关环境因子进行了调查。调查共发现大型底栖动物27种,隶属于5门8纲,平均密度为48.40 ind.·m-2,其中主要以软体动物门为主;平均生物量为28.12 g·m-2,亦主要由软体动物门贡献。湖区主要优势种为河蚬(Corbicula fluminea)(优势度y=0.0655)、铜锈环棱螺(Bellamya aeruginosa)(y=0.0336)、霍甫水丝蚓(Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri)(y=0.0268)。底栖动物密度、生物量及多样性指数均呈现出鄱阳湖保护区高于南矶山保护区的格局,且二者在群落组成上有明显差异,鄱阳湖自然保护区主要以腹足纲和寡毛纲为主,南矶山自然保护区主要以瓣鳃纲和腹足纲为主。典范对应分析的结果显示,鄱阳湖保护区主要受到高水深、低浊度及高溶氧的影响;南矶山保护区各样点之间群落相似性较差,分别受不同因子的影响,这表明在各区域内部,局域微生境在局域群落结构的塑造上起主要作用,因此该区域内生态系统的保护应适当考虑空间尺度。