Case study: Assessment on large scale LPG BLEVEs in the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes

After the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, several chemical and oil complexes on the Pacific Ocean shoreline of northeast Japan experienced massive losses. In Chiba, a refinery operated by Cosmo Oil lost 17 LPG storage vessels which were either heavily damaged or totally destroyed by fires and explosions in the refinery. These large vessels ranged in size from 1000 to 5000 m³. The estimated volume of LPG at the time of the incident was between 400 and 5000 m³ for each vessel. Five boiling liquid expanding vapor explosions (BLEVEs) of LPG occurred, resulting in huge fire balls measuring about 500 m in diameter.A BLEVE is defined as the explosive release of expanding vapor and boiling liquid when a container holding a pressure-liquefied gas fails catastrophically. It is thus important to estimate the physical properties of superheated liquids: the thermodynamic and transport properties, the intrinsic limits to superheating and depressurization, and the nature of thermodynamic paths. Also it is hoped to provide better understanding of the vessels designed, manufactured, installed, and operated to reduce or eliminate the probability that a sequence of events will result in BLEVE or loss of primary containment. Knowledge of these matters is still incomplete. The objective of this research is to estimate the significant BLEVE phenomenon in very large scale spherical vessels based on published information in Japan. There are some models predicting BLEVEs. However, it is essential to know if this is true for very large scales such as spheres since validation is usually rare to provide confidence in estimating the superheated liquids behaviors. To this end, comparing with the information on this event, the conditions in the five LPG vessels at the time of the BLEVE were determined in terms of: duration of vessel failure (time to BLEVE); mass fraction in the vessel with time; temperature distribution in the liquid and vapor region and pressure within the vessel (e.g. initial pressure and internal high-speed transient pressure during failure), by means of a computer program AFFTAC Analysis of Fire Effects on Tank Cars, which solves heat conduction, stress and a failure model of the tank, a thermodynamic model of its fluid contents, and a flow model for the lading flowing through the safety relief device. Subsequently, the consequences from the sphere BLEVE, such as the expected fireball diameter and duration and the expected blast overpressure produced by the BLEVE failures, are also subjects of active research. Here the blast using the methods of PHAST and SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering was calculated.Results suggest that methodologies here used gave reasonable estimations for such real and huge BLEVEs in a validated way, which may provide valuable guidance for risk mitigation strategy with regard to LPG facility in design, emergency planning, resiliency, operations, and risk management.     

双风机并联机站局阻特性研究

为探究双风机并联机站局部阻力特性、完善机站局部阻力及其系数的计算公式,以实际矿井通风机站为工程背景,在分析机站流场能量损失机理的基础上,采用物理模型实验和数值计算相结合的方法,分析了机站入口分流、出口汇流的断面速度不均匀程度与机站阻力损失的关系,同时对不同宽高比的矩形断面进行多工况模拟。结果表明:断面速度不均匀性越大,速度分布重组造成的阻力损失越大;确定了机站局阻计算所需参数的合理测定位置,得出机站局阻系数计算时的综合影响系数Kc随风机工况增大而增大、随断面宽高比A增大而减小,并呈现较好的线性关系。研究结果可为多级机站通风系统通风阻力特性分析以及工程优化设计提供参考。     

基坑放坡开挖对下方既有地铁隧道影响计算及风险预测

为研究基坑放坡开挖对下方既有地铁隧道的影响以及预测隧道结构的风险,通过改进的计算方法得到放坡开挖基坑引起下方既有地铁隧道的竖向和横向附加荷载、位移、相对变形曲率共6个隧道结构安全的物理表现因子;将位移计算结果与前人理论计算结果、实测数据对比验证,并分析各土层物理力学参数对6个因子的敏感性;最后,基于正态分布概率模型对较敏感的土层物理力学参数随机取值,利用蒙特卡罗方法计算6个因子各级风险发生的概率和竖向、横向2类因子综合影响下隧道结构各级风险发生的总概率。研究结果表明:与原来仅限于矩形开挖基坑的计算方法相比,改进后的计算方法适用范围更广、实用性更强;在算例二分析中,隧道竖向位移和相对变形曲率超过控制值的概率分别为12%和68.7%,其余因子均为0,隧道竖向相对变形曲率是隧道结构处于不安全状态的最主要因子;若不采取预防措施,隧道结构将有高达73.27%的概率处于不安全状态,其中有68.7%的概率处于很不安全状态。     

A simulation model of rhizome networks for Fallopia japonica (Japanese knotweed) in the United Kingdom

Fallopia japonica (Japanese knotweed) is an aggressively invasive herbaceous perennial that causes substantial economic and environmental damage in the United Kingdom (UK). As such, it is of considerable concern to councils, environmental groups, private landowners and property developers. We construct a 3D correlated random walk model of the development of the subterranean rhizome network for a single stand of F. japonica. The formulation of this model uses detailed knowledge of the morphology and physiology of the plant, both of which differ in the UK to that of its native habitat due to factors including a lack of predation and competition, longer growth seasons and favourable environmental conditions in the UK. Field data obtained as a part of this study are discussed and used in the model for parameterisation and validation. The simulation captures the field data well and predicts, for example, quadratic growth in time for the stand area. Furthermore, the role of a selection of parameters on long-term stand development are discussed, highlighting some key factors affecting vegetative spread rates.     

Dynamics of soil organic matter in primary and secondary forest succession on sandy soils in The Netherlands: An application of the ROMUL model

We applied the simulation model ROMUL of soil organic matter dynamics in order to analyse and predict forest soil organic matter (SOM) changes following stand growth and also to identify gaps of data and modelling problems. SOM build-up was analysed (a) from bare sand to forest soil during a primary succession in Scots pine forest and (b) on mature forest soil under Douglas fir plantations as an example of secondary succession in The Netherlands. As some of the experimental data were unreliable we compiled a set of various scenarios with different soil moisture regime, initial SOM pools and amount and quality of above and below ground litter input. This allowed us to find the scenarios that reflect the SOM dynamics more realistically. In the Scots pine forest, total litter input was estimated as 0.50 kg m⁻² year⁻¹. Two scenarios were defined for the test runs: (a) forest floor moisture regimes—‘dry, mesic and hydric’ and (b) augmenting a root litter pool with three ratios of needles and branches to roots: 1:1, 1:1.5 and 1:2.0. The scenario finally compiled had the following characteristics: (a) climate for dry site with summer drought and high winter moisture of forest floor; (b) a litter input of 0.25 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ above ground and 0.50 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ below ground; (c) a low nitrogen and ash content in all litter fall fractions. The test runs for the estimation of the initial SOM pools and the amount and proportion of above and below ground litter fall were also performed in the Douglas fir plantation. The inputs of above ground litter tested in various combinations were 0.30 and 0.60 kg m⁻² year⁻¹, and below ground litter 0.30, 0.60 and 0.90 kg m⁻² year⁻¹. The scenario that fitted the experimental data had an SOM pool of 20–25 kg m⁻², an aboveground litter input of 0.6 kg m⁻² year⁻¹and a below ground litter input of 0.9 kg m⁻² year⁻¹. The long-term simulation corresponded well with the observed patterns of soil organic matter accumulation associated with the forest soil development in primary and secondary succession. During primary succession in Scots pine forest on dry sand there is a consistent accumulation of a raw humus forest floor. The soil dynamics in the Douglas fir plantation also coincide with the observed patterns of SOM changes during the secondary succession, with SOM decreasing significantly under young forest, and SOM being restored in the older stands.     

天津市机动车污染评估方法

依据城市机动车空气污染评价方法确立了天津市空气污染物机动车污染的评价体系。该评价体系具有准确性、先进性和实用性，采用科学的方法估算天津市城区机动车排气污染物的排放浓度及总量对环境空气污染的分担率。科学地给出了天津市现阶段机动车污染的现状及发展趋势，为环境保护决策提供了科学依据。     

板料拉延成形中应力状态的研究

在采用Hill关于各向异性材料的修正屈服函数,并运用板块分析方法对板料轴对称成形进行数值模拟的基础上,着重分析了拉延成形中悬空区域材料的应力状态,提出了对该区域应力状态过渡点即周向应力为零的应力分界圆进行数值求解的公式及方法,同时对影响该分界圆位置的诸因素进行了细致分析.     

基于负压法炮弹气密性检测方法研究

目的 实现炮弹气密性检测及其自动化、智能化设备的开发.方法 提出了一种基于负压法的炮弹气密性检测方法.首先,阐述了负压法气密性检测工作原理和实施流程,并对炮弹检测设备的用例模型和检测设备功能框架进行了讨论.其次,针对工程实际,详细给出了测量腔安装密封性计算、测量腔泄漏的压差泄漏率计算、测量腔的初始测量压力值计算、炮弹气体泄漏量计算等检测算法和判定方法.结果 基于负压法的炮弹气密性检测方法的灵敏度比正压法高.结论 本方法可为实现对全弹的气密性检验提供参考,同时也可促进和指导炮弹气密性检验设备的研制,将有效保障炮弹气密性检验自动化设备开发效率和有效性.     

旋转式滗水器设计的动力学计算

在对旋转式滗水器进行了水力学和运动学计算的基础上，对旋转式滗水器进行了动力学计算，给出了其动力学计算公式，与水力学和运动学计算公式一起，共同给出了旋转式滗水器完整的设计计算公式。     

Effects of uncontrolled particulate matter release on precipitation under warfare conditions

This study has shown theoretical, observed and experimental evidence of pollutants released, transported and deposited during the Kosovo conflict in 1999 and their effects on precipitation in Serbia. The greatest bombardment of the chemical industry, oil refineries and fuel storage in Serbia which occurred during April, resulted in releases of many hazardous, toxic and cancerogenic substances. The number of April's days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm in 1999 are compared to those in the period from 1961 to 1990 registered at thirty meteorological stations in Serbia and especially at the Belgrade-Observatory station in the period from 1888 to 1995. The maximums of days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm were at the wider Belgrade area and at the central and southwestern parts of Serbia during April 1999. This is confirmed by using the Eta trajectory analysis.