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41.
考虑边界条件不确定性的地下水污染风险分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为分析边界条件不确定性对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型输出结果的影响,运用Monte Carlo方法对一算例进行阐明,并从污染风险预报方面对模拟结果进行分析.为减少重复调用模拟模型产生的大量计算负荷,将边界条件(第一类边界条件-水头值)作为随机变量,建立地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Kriging替代模型,在保证较高精度的同时,实现了Monte Carlo模拟.结果表明:边界条件的不确定性,对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型预报的结果有很大影响,考虑与未考虑边界条件不确定性得到的研究区污染羽分布差别较大.对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Monte Carlo模拟结果进行统计与分析,可以评估研究区观测井1,2,3污染物浓度预报结果的可靠程度,并且可以预报出研究区观测井1,2,3遭受不同程度污染的风险. 相似文献
42.
针对目前我国环境影响评价领域普遍采用的有限边界岸边排放稳态二维混合模式的局限性和不精确性,本文对由河流二维稳态水质模型的基本方程推求出的有限边界岸边排放的二维稳态混合模式的解析解的各项进行分析比较。同时针对费休的混合长度公式进行了计算比较。 相似文献
43.
44.
Economic development and environmental protection: an ecological economics perspective 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Rees WE 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2003,86(1-2):29-45
This paper argues on both theoretical and empirical grounds that, beyond a certain point, there is an unavoidable conflictbetween economic development (generally taken to mean 'materialeconomic growth') and environmental protection. Think for a moment of natural forests, grasslands, marine estuaries, salt marshes, and coral reefs; and of arable soils, aquifers, mineraldeposits, petroleum, and coal. These are all forms of 'natural capital' that represent highly-ordered self-producing ecosystemsor rich accumulations of energy/matter with high use potential (low entropy). Now contemplate despoiled landscapes, eroding farmlands, depleted fisheries, anthropogenic greenhouse gases,acid rain, poisonous mine tailings and toxic synthetic compounds.These all represent disordered systems or degraded forms of energy and matter with little use potential (high entropy). The main thing connecting these two states is human economic activity. Ecological economics interprets the environment-economyrelationship in terms of the second law of thermodynamics. The second law sees economic activity as a dissipative process. Fromthis perspective, the production of economic goods andservices invariably requires the consumption of available energy and matter. To grow and develop, the economynecessarily 'feeds' on sources of high-quality energy/matter first produced by nature. This tends to disorder and homogenizethe ecosphere, The ascendance of humankind has consistently been accompanied by an accelerating rate of ecological degradation, particularly biodiversity loss, the simplificationof natural systems and pollution. In short, contemporary political rhetoric to the contrary, the prevailing growth-oriented global development paradigm is fundamentally incompatible with long-term ecological and social sustainability. Unsustainability is not a technical nor economic problem as usually conceived, but rather a state of systemic incompatibilitybetween a economy that is a fully-contained, growing, dependent sub-system of a non-growing ecosphere. Potential solutions fly inthe face of contemporary development trends and cultural values. 相似文献
45.
A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability. 相似文献
46.
Aerosol Scavenging: Model Application and Sensitivity Analysis in the Indian Context 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Sulfate aerosols have been found to bethe major contributors to precipitation acidity. Thus,in view of the long-term ecological repercussions theyhave on aquatic ecosystems and their acidity-potential,the present analysis focuses on a case study applicationof the layer-averaged aerosol-scavenging model (Okita et al., 1996) for predicting values of the wet scavengingcoefficient and sulfate concentrations in precipitationsamples on the basis of the information available forsome selected Indian cities. Through sensitivityanalysis (Pandey et al., 1997) the scavengingcoefficient has been found to be very strongly dependenton precipitation intensity. Comparison of modelpredictions has been done with the measured values forDelhi, Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai in India. 相似文献
47.
济南市环境空气中多环芳烃的来源识别和解析 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4
根据环境空气污染源标识物的确定和多环芳烃降解行为,利用CMB受体模型进行拟合计算,确定多环芳烃污染源贡献率,并在比较多环芳烃实测值和CMB受体模型计算值的基础上,得出可吸入颗粒物中多环芳烃源解析结果,确定机动车污染源是济南市可吸入颗粒物中多环芳烃的主要贡献源。 相似文献
48.
ADMS模型解析城区总悬浮颗粒物来源 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
以污染源排放数据为基础,应用ADMS-城市扩散模型模拟分析了鞍山市尘各污染源对空气环境质量的贡献。结果表明,来自污染源的浓度贡献值占总量的52%;二次尘及外来尘浓度贡献占48%;矿山开采二次尘的浓度贡献占16%;鞍钢炼铁厂的浓度贡献占19.6%;鞍钢化工总厂浓度贡献占5.6%;供暖锅炉浓度贡献占9.3%。低、中、高架源浓度贡献百分比分别为68.1%、29.0%、2.9%。低架源吨排放量浓度贡献为高架源的2.4倍。 相似文献
49.
Kimpo metropolitan landfill has received various kinds of wastessince January 1992. The leachate level was measured to be 10.3 m in May 1995 and the level increased to 12.2 m in August 1996. Therefore, to prove the reason for the increasing leachate level, we calibrated hydraulic conductivity of each waste andintermediate layer using the HELP (Hydrologic Evaluation ofLandfill Performance) model. The leachate generation data measured from February 1993 to October 1995 was used in the model calibration. As a result of a model calibration, we obtained anaverage infiltration ratio and used this in analysis of the total water balance to predict elevation of leachate level. Main causes of the elevation of the leachate level were the high water content of the waste and the degradation of the leachate-drainage system caused by the subsidence of a naturalbarrier layer. 相似文献
50.
Georgios D. Gikas Trisevgeni Yiannakopoulou Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2006,11(3):219-233
SWAT ver. 2000 was used to predict hydrographs, and sediment, nitrate and total phosphorus loadings from a 1349 km2 mountainous/agricultural watershed in Northern Greece. The model was calibrated and verified using continuous meteorological
data from eight stations within the drainage area, and runoff, sediment and nutrient concentrations measured at nine stations
located within the main tributaries of the watershed, for the time period from May 1st, 1998 to January 31st, 2000. Model
validation methodology and resulting input parameters appropriate for Mediterranean drainage basins are presented. Predicted
by the model hydrographs, sedimentographs and pollutographs are plotted against observed values and show good agreement. Model
performance is evaluated using the root mean square error computation and scattergrams of predicted versus observed data.
The validated model is also used to test the effectiveness of three alternative cropping scenarios in reducing nutrient loadings
from the agricultural part of the watershed. The study showed that this model, if properly validated, can be used effectively
in testing management scenarios in Mediterranean drainage basins. 相似文献