RAPID-N: Rapid natech risk assessment and mapping framework

Natech accidents at industrial plants are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. For the mitigation of natech risk, authorities need to identify natech prone areas in a systematic manner. In order to facilitate probabilistic natech risk mapping, a unified methodology was developed that is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, determination of damage probabilities of plant units, and assessment of probability and severity of possibly triggered natech events. The methodology was implemented as an on-line, extensible risk assessment and mapping software framework called RAPID-N, which allows rapid local and regional natech risk assessment and mapping with minimal data input. RAPID-N features an innovative data estimation framework to complete missing input data, such as on-site natural hazard parameters and plant unit characteristics. The framework is also used for damage assessment and natech consequence analysis, and allows easy modification of input parameters, dynamic generation of consequence models according to data availability, and extension of models by adding new equations or substituting existing ones with alternatives. Results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps, which can be used for land-use and emergency planning purposes by using scenario hazards, or for rapid natech consequence assessment following actual disasters. As proof of concept, the framework provides a custom implementation of the U.S. EPA's RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology to perform natech consequence analysis and includes comprehensive data for earthquakes. It is readily extendible to other natural hazards and more comprehensive risk assessment methods.     

新发展阶段中国矿山安全法规标准体系研究*

为充分发挥立法的引领和推动作用,不断完善中国矿山安全法律法规体系,分析我国矿山安全领域的立法现状,借鉴美国矿山安全立法经验及启示,立足于我国矿山安全监管监察体制革新的新形势和新要求,提出了以《矿山安全法》为基本法,以行政法规、部门规章、监察手册和强制性标准为支撑的新发展阶段矿山安全法规标准体系,为中国矿山安全领域立法提供参考。     

我国规划环评相关技术问题探析

中国是立法认可规划环评并作为促进环境保护和可持续发展重要手段的亚洲国家之一。由于我国环评法2003年9月1日才施行,可以说我国规划环评技术尚处于探索中。文章回顾了国际上和我国规划(战略)环评的主流概念、主要任务、基本型式和总体技术路线,提出了我国规划环评的主要任务及适宜的基本型式和总体技术路线。     

制度变迁对旅游发展的效应及其研究框架——从一个新制度经济学的视角

一个完善的制度是保证旅游业持续发展的关键.在新制度经济理论的指导下和界定制度变迁相关概念的基础上,分析了制度变迁对旅游发展的效应.从制度变迁对旅游发展是否存在效应、正效应还是负效应、具体效应与不同区域的效应有无差异等方面构建了研究框架和主要内容.     

从安全防灾到韧性建设——国土空间治理背景下韧性规划的探索与展望

新形势下城市巨系统面临更多不确定性风险与未知扰动,要求安全防灾规划从目标对象、战略定位、技术手段与规划理念等方面做出适应调整,通过韧性城市建设引领区域安全稳定发展。对韧性城市的概念起源、理论发展与实践探索进行了梳理和评述,并结合我国“多规合一”后的国土空间规划体系改革,对空间治理背景下韧性规划的内涵特征、层级类型、流程形式与公共治理进行认识与思考;并从深化韧性城市的理论构建与机理研究、转变规划编制的设计思路和实践流程、完善韧性实践中的规划传导和尺度治理、关注韧性建设中的基层治理和公众参与四个方面,提出韧性规划的实践路径展望,力求有序推进我国城市公共安全现代化治理建设。     

城市空气质量达标规划的逻辑框架

针对环境空气质量达标规划目前没有明确规划编制的基本要求和主要内容之间的关联原则、未将长期规划方案落实到日常管理方案、过于重视长期空气质量目标与减排情景方案而对污染物减排方案重视不足、未将规划的成本效益分析作为主要方案设计依据等逻辑不清的问题,从人群健康的角度出发,构建达标规划的逻辑框架：提出空气质量目标和人群健康目标相一致的目标体系;设计与空气质量目标一致的污染物减排方案,通过成本效益或成本有效性分析明确优先序,按照重污染日（周）、重污染月、采暖期等优先序实施区域内污染物排放量的绝对减排,并落实到排污许可证中;实施空气质量“日”管理,根据预测模型对未来重污染天气进行污染源排放管理,并对污染源减排方案实施持续动态评估和调整.     

Improving protected area effectiveness through consideration of different human-pressure baselines

Previous assessments of the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) focused primarily on changes in human pressure over time and did not consider the different human-pressure baselines of PAs, thereby potentially over- or underestimating PA effectiveness. We developed a framework that considers both human-pressure baseline and change in human pressure over time and assessed the effectiveness of 338 PAs in China from 2010 to 2020. The initial state of human pressure on PAs was taken as the baseline, and changes in human pressure index (HPI) were further analyzed under different baselines. We used the random forest models to identify the management measures that most improved effectiveness in resisting human pressure for the PAs with different baselines. Finally, the relationships between the changes in the HPI and the changes in natural ecosystems in PAs were analyzed with different baselines. Of PAs with low HPI baselines, medium HPI baselines, and high HPI baselines, 76.92% (n=150), 11.11% (n=12), and 22.86% (n=8) , respectively, showed positive effects in resisting human pressure. Overall, ignoring human-pressure baselines somewhat underestimated the positive effects of PAs, especially for those with low initial human pressure. For PAs with different initial human pressures, different management measures should be taken to improve effectiveness and reduce threats to natural ecosystems. We believe our framework is useful for assessing the effectiveness of PAs globally, and we recommend it be included in the Convention on Biological Diversity Post-2020 Strategy.     

金属有机骨架材料低温脱硝技术研究进展

金属有机骨架材料（MOFs）因其独特的结构作为催化剂应用于SCR系统表现出较好的低温脱硝效果和较强的抗SO₂、抗H₂O性能。综述了几种较典型的MOFs催化剂及其改性产物的低温催化性能,以及MOFs材料应用于SCR技术的研究进展,指出：对含有两种或两种以上金属的复合MOFs材料的深入研究,是开发稳定性更高、抗SO₂抗H₂O能力更强的MOFs催化剂的重要思路;此外,对有机组成部分进行改性,提高有机配体的热稳定性也是一个重要的研究思路。     

火灾扑救模拟演练DIS系统框架的研究

论述了分布式交互仿真 (DistributedInteractiveSimulation ,简称DIS)技术在火灾扑救模拟演练中的应用 ,给出其系统框架 ;详细描述了该DIS系统中的白方系统、蓝方系统和红方系统的具体组成功能部分 ;提出了实现这些功能的软件平台。最后给出了研究DIS在火灾扑救演练应用中的结论 ;指出未来的发展方向 ,强调了实际应用中可能出现的技术难点     

“时—空—人”交互视角下的国土空间公共安全规划体系构建

公共安全事件是特定情境下“时—空—人”多要素交互作用时空过程的结果,国土空间公共安全规划和相应的能力建设是应对公共安全事件长期而重要的抓手。在构建公共安全规划中“时—空—人”互动的研究框架基础上,分别对“预防、预警、应急、灾后”四个阶段的相关研究和工作重点进行审视,并在此基础上构建国土空间公共安全规划的内容、技术方法和保障支撑体系。首先,在内容体系方面,与国土空间规划的全国—省—市—县—镇等多层级规划编制体系和全国一盘棋的应急响应机制相适应,开展综合规划与专项规划编制,重点解决面向应对自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生事件、社会安全事件等方面的空间、设施、应急等方面的规划和管理问题;在技术方法体系方面,构建和完善公共安全事件的时空要素识别与分析、时空过程模拟与预警分析等方法和技术支撑体系;在保障支撑体系方面,基于时空大数据的新基建建设,构建和完善时空可达的公共安全设施体系和公共安全导向下的社会治理体系。