现代统计信息分析在安全工程方面的应用——多元回归分析

在安全管理统计中,经常要用到多元回归分析方法,本文介绍了多元回归分析的几个基本公式,及其计算方法及步骤。     

Risk-based Decision Process for Arsenic in Soils: Implications of Conservative Protocols

Making defensible risk-based decisions is a complex process that incorporates risk assessment into a risk management framework. Many site investigations require additional study, negotiations and/or actions for arsenic detected in soil samples, in many cases where no process related sources are identified and no other chemicals of concern are identified. Regulatory agencies develop guidance to standardize approaches to risk-based site investigations that focus on achieving "safe" concentrations. For arsenic, the action level is frequently in the "gray region", a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) term associated with a region of high uncertainty for risk management decisions in the "decision performance curve" associated with the data quality objective (DQO) process. Recognizing the conservative nature of the risk-based screening value for arsenic, approaches to enforce this level (or proof of comparability to natural background) may have numerous consequences including ineffective use of resources, stigmas on properties or actions at industrial or hazardous sites that are inconsistent with their regional setting. Florida has developed regulations and guidance on investigation of brownfield sites and has supported a study by the University of Florida (UF) to evaluate natural background concentrations in Florida soils. This paper discusses the sources of uncertainty near the soil cleanup target levels (SCTLs) in the Florida decision-making framework.     

Multiple batch extraction test to estimate contaminant release parameters using a Bayesian approach

Industrial activities produce vast amounts of weakly contaminated materials which are commonly reused as filling materials on natural ground. There is a strong demand to define guidelines for the application of these materials, to estimate the leaching potential of contaminants from the materials, and to assess the potential hazard for groundwater pollution. We present a multiple batch experiment, where measurements of liquid-phase concentrations at varying liquid/solid ratios are used to estimate the total mass of contaminant that can be extracted from a contaminated material with a mild extractant like water. Furthermore, the experiment yields estimates of the isotherm describing the partitioning of the contaminant between the solid and liquid phases, and a concentration that might be expected under soil hydraulic conditions representative for the field situation. Model parameters are estimated from liquid-phase concentrations within a Bayesian framework by applying the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis Algorithm (SCEM-UA), an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler. A sensitivity analysis and inversions of synthetically generated data corrupted with noise show the general suitability of the proposed method. An uncertainty analysis for model parameters and model predictions shows the expected accuracy of the estimates. An application to concentration measurements obtained from a multiple batch extraction test illustrates the applicability of the approach for a real situation.     

污染源排放污染物的量值溯源

对于污染源排放污染物的量值统计,在环保部门内部有3个途径,由于要求不同,造成工作有难有易,更重要的是3个途径的统计值存在一定的差异,本文就此问题进行分析,并对量值的准确性进行溯源,提出了解决三者差异的办法。     

五氯酚标准样品的研制

五氯酚是美国ＥＰＡ公布的１２９种重点污染物名单以及我国环境优先监测污染物黑名单中的重点污染物,也是环境监测和环境科研工作中的主要对象。本文介绍了这种污染物毒理特性和液体介质标准样品的分析、研究、制备方法。     

我国灾害经济统计评估系统及其指标体系的研究

灾害经济现象的统计与评估问题,是开展减灾系统工程及进行灾害经济学研究的重要前提。本文从系统科学的观点出发,分析了建立我国灾害经济系统评估系统的一般问题,同时还对我国灾害经济统计评估指标体系的设计进行了初步探讨.     

Rate of occupational accidents in the mining industry since 1950--a successful approach to prevention policy

This paper deals with the decrease in the rate of accident insurance claims in the German mining industry over the last five decades. It intends to show that this process is above all the result of a prevention policy where companies and the body responsible for the legal accident insurance in the mining industry, the Bergbau-Berufsgenossenschaft (BBG), work hand in hand. A system like the German accident insurance scheme, combining prevention, rehabilitation, and compensation, enables successful and modern safety and health measures.     

Identification of road salt contamination using multiple regression and GIS

A multiple regression model of atmospheric deposition of salt, combined with geographic information systems (GIS) data on four classes of roads, is used to predict sodium concentrations in 162 randomly chosen streams in Massachusetts. All four classes of roads, as well as atmospheric deposition, were found to be highly significant in a model that explains 68% of the observed variation in sodium concentration. The highest salt loading rates are associated with interstate and major state roads with an estimated 22,500 and 17,700 kg of salt per kilometer, respectively. Our mass balance calculations indicate road salt is the major source of salt to the streams in Massachusetts. We examined some of the common statistical problems associated with the use of multiple regression for this type of analysis. Our confidence in the accuracy of the loading rates estimated above are limited by the collinear nature of environmental data and uncertainties related to model specification. Our results suggest multiple regression techniques can lead to overconfidence in the accuracy of the estimated loading rates and thus should not be used as the basis for policy unless the model is validated.     

Why is the rate of annual road fatalities increasing? A unit record analysis of New Zealand data (2010–2017)

IntroductionRecent increases in road crashes have reversed New Zealand’s formerly declining crash rates to produce annual fatal and serious injury counts that are 49% higher than the lowest rates achieved in 2013. Method: We model twenty-one factors in fatal and serious injury crashes, four years before and after 2013 using logistic regression. Three major factors are significantly different in the period after 2013, when crash rates increased: (1) alcohol as a cause, (2) learner licence holders, and (3) a regional effect for Auckland. Newly defined speed zones are a more common setting for crashes in the period of upturn but there is no coinciding elevated likelihood of ‘speed as a causal factor’. Three factors related to road safety were less common: aged under 25-years old, fatigue, and not wearing a seatbelt. Results: Results are compared to rates of prosecutions for alcohol-related driving offences over this period. It is possible that New Zealand’s successful road safety initiatives of the past have been undermined by reduced levels of enforcement and an unexpected outcome from the graduated driving licence system.