Design of aquifer remediation systems: (2) estimating site-specific performance and benefits of partial source removal

A Lagrangian stochastic model is proposed as a tool that can be utilized in forecasting remedial performance and estimating the benefits (in terms of flux and mass reduction) derived from a source zone remedial effort. The stochastic functional relationships that describe the hydraulic "structure" and non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) "architecture" have been described in a companion paper (Enfield, C.G., Wood, A.L., Espinoza, F.P., Brooks, M.C., Annable, M., Rao, P.S.C., this issue. Design of aquifer remediation systems: (1) describing hydraulic structure and NAPL architecture using tracers. J. Contam. Hydrol.). The previously defined functions were used along with the properties of the remedial fluids to describe remedial performance. There are two objectives for this paper. First, is to show that a simple analytic element model can be used to give a reasonable estimate of system performance. This is accomplished by comparing forecast performance to observed performance. The second objective is to display the model output in terms of change in mass flux and mass removal as a function of pore volumes of remedial fluid injected. The modelling results suggest that short term benefits are obtained and related to mass reduction at the sites where the model was tested.     

河流水环境中的非突发性水质风险模型研究

把影响水质模型的随机因素看成一个具有零均值的维纳过程，建立一个研究非突发性水质风险的随机微分动态模型，并对该维纳过程强度进行了估值。研究表明，水环境中的随机因素是引起非突发性风险的一个重要原因。     

An individual-based stochastic hazard model of eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) migration with spatially and temporally varying fishing effort

This paper describes an individual-based stochastic model of eastern king prawn migration along the eastern Australian coast. Migration is treated as one-dimensional diffusion with drift. Capture of a prawn is seen as a failure event driven by movement through a spatially and temporally variable fishing mortality hazard. This hazard is combined with a uniform natural mortality hazard. We use a Monte Carlo method to estimate parameters by comparing expected numbers of tag-returns predicted from the model with previously published tag-release data. As the previous study used a discrete compartmental model, with compartments corresponding to zones of constant fishing effort, we used the same zones and fishing effort in our comparison. The marginal distribution of yield in each zone per single recruit is determined, providing more information compared with the deterministic approach to yield-per-recruit. Using our model we also derive the constant fishing mortality rate equivalent to a spatially variable fishing mortality rate in its impact on the proportion of prawns surviving the migration to reach spawning grounds. Determination of this proportion could contribute significantly to a sustainability assessment of the fishery. It is demonstrated using the AIC that better fits to the data of the previous study and greater parsimony are obtained using our model than were found in the deterministic compartmental analysis of that study. This improvement results from the ability of our model to account separately for average speed of movement and average dispersal rate, whereas in the previous deterministic compartmental model, movement is governed by just one parameter. Our individual-based model includes a parameter that explicitly accounts for dispersal of prawns in migration, so it can distinguish between speed effects and dispersal effects in the data. It also models both types of mortality as processes distinct from those of movement. This enables it to better separate movement and mortality effects compared to the compartmental approach, in which movement and mortality are treated as similar departure processes from a compartment. This separation reduces confounding of movement and mortality effects when parameters are estimated.     

Multi-parameter renewal processes and simulation of forest fires

The concept of the renewal property is extended to processes indexed by a multidimensional time parameter. The definition given includes not only partial sum processes, but also Poisson processes and many other point processes whose jump points are not totally ordered. Various properties of renewal processes are discussed. Renewal processes are proposed as a basis for modelling the spread of a forest fire under a prevailing wind.

Heuristic space–time design of monitoring wells for contaminant plume characterization in stochastic flow fields

An optimization methodology for designing groundwater quality monitoring networks applicable to stochastic flow fields is presented and evaluated. The approach sets itself apart from previous techniques by incorporating the time dimension directly into the objective function. This function is extremized using a directed partial enumeration strategy guided by physical considerations related to transport processes. The result is a set of monitoring well locations and a sampling schedule that minimizes plume characterization error while satisfying constraints on the maximum number of wells and allowable number of active wells. The method is evaluated using hypothetical plumes with varying degrees of heterogeneity. Results indicate that the proposed approach is successful in generating near-optimal sampling networks that satisfy all imposed constraints. Monitoring networks with as little as three active wells and a total of 12 wells are found to provide adequate plume characterization for low toxicity contaminants.     

Impact of environmental production conditions on productivity and efficiency: a case study of wheat farmers in Bangladesh

Environmental conditions significantly affect production, but are often ignored in studies analysing productivity and efficiency leading to biased results. In this study, we examine the influence of selected environmental factors on productivity and efficiency in wheat farming in Bangladesh. Results reveal that environmental production conditions significantly affect the parameters of the production function and technical efficiency, as well as correlates of inefficiency. Controlling for environmental production conditions improves technical efficiency by 4 points (p<0.01) from 86% to 90%. Large farms are more efficient relative to small and medium sized farms (p<0.01 and 0.05), with no variation among regions. Policy implications include soil fertility improvement through soil conservation and crop rotation, improvement in managerial practices through extension services and adoption of modern technologies, promotion of education, strengthening the research-extension link, and development of new varieties that have higher yield potential and are also suitable for marginal areas.     

How important are uncertainty and dynamics for environmental and climate policy? Some analytics

We introduce ten papers on sustainable resource dynamics. In addition, we provide analytical results on the effect of stochastic damages on optimal economic growth, the effects of habits and loss aversion on the cost-benefit discount rate, and the effect of a carbon budget and carbon capture and storage (CCS) on optimal investment in technical change.     

Impact of global warming on agricultural product markets: stochastic world food model analysis

Climatic change through global warming and drought is a major issue for agricultural production. Most researchers who discuss the effects of such changes on agriculture report estimated yield changes based on crop process models. However, studies focusing on the impact of climatic change on agricultural product markets are very rare. This paper examines the relationship between climatic change and world food markets, i.e., the supply and demand of crops, by using a stochastic version of a world food model, the International Food and Agricultural Policy Simulation Model. The results suggest that variations in the production of maize and soybeans in some major producing countries will be large, and variations in the producer prices of all crops will increase. Countries that suffer higher price risk because of high sensitivity to temperature fluctuations may need to consider changes in cropping patterns.     

Reserve Design to Maximize Species Persistence

We develop a reserve design strategy to maximize the probability of species persistence predicted by a stochastic, individual-based, metapopulation model. Because the population model does not fit exact optimization procedures, our strategy involves deriving promising solutions from theory, obtaining promising solutions from a simulation optimization heuristic, and determining the best of the promising solutions using a multiple-comparison statistical test. We use the strategy to address a problem of allocating limited resources to new and existing reserves. The best reserve design depends on emigration, dispersal mortality, and probabilities of movement between reserves. When movement probabilities are symmetric, the best design is to expand a subset of reserves to equal size to exhaust the habitat budget. When movement probabilities are not symmetric, the best design does not expand reserves to equal size and is strongly affected by movement probabilities and emigration rates. We use commercial simulation software to obtain our results.     

Inexact multistage stochastic integer programming for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic integer programming (IMSIP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. This method incorporates techniques of inexact optimization and multistage stochastic programming within an integer programming framework. It can deal with uncertainties expressed as both probabilities and discrete intervals, and reflect the dynamics in terms of decisions for water allocation through transactions at discrete points of a complete scenario set over a multistage context. Moreover, the IMSIP can facilitate analyses of the multiple policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the promised targets are violated as well as the economies-of-scale in the costs for surplus water diversion. A case study is provided for demonstrating the applicability of the developed methodology. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated for both binary and continuous variables. For all scenarios under consideration, corrective actions can be undertaken dynamically under various pre-regulated policies and can thus help minimize the penalties and costs. The IMSIP can help water resources managers to identify desired system designs against water shortage and for flood control with maximized economic benefit and minimized system-failure risk.