基于Box Behnken设计的煤导热系数分析与预测

为研究分析水分、固定碳及密度3个因素对煤导热系数的影响,选取多个矿井不同煤质的煤作为实验煤样,使用NETZSCH LFA457型激光导热系数测试仪进行测定,并引入二次响应曲面试验设计思想,采用Design Expert软件进行煤质指标的Box Behnken试验设计,按设计表筛选实验数据,构建了导热系数多因素、多水平影响下二次回归响应曲面模型,并对不同采样地点的煤导热系数进行了分析与预测。结果表明:二次回归方程P值小于0.000 1,极显著,失拟项为0.072 4,不显著,回归方程具有统计学意义;当水分在0.9%~10.9%,固定碳在49.3%~83.6%,密度在1.2~1.92 g·cm³之间,对煤的导热系数一次项影响程度为密度>固定碳>水分;二次项影响程度为固定碳和密度>水分和密度>水分和固定碳,且固定碳和密度之间存在交互作用,水分和密度、水分和固定碳之间无交互作用;应用响应曲面模型预测的煤导热系数误差为4.3%,满足精度要求。     

Sensitivity analysis of the two dimensional application of the Generic Ecological Model (GEM) to algal bloom prediction in the North Sea

Harmful algae can cause damage to co-existing organisms, tourism and farmers. Accurate predictions of algal future composition and abundance as well as when and where algal blooms may occur could help early warning and mitigating. The Generic Ecological Model is an instrument that can be applied to any water system (fresh, transitional or coastal) to calculate the primary production, chlorophyll-a concentration and phytoplankton species composition. It consists of physical, chemical and ecological model components which are coupled together to build one generic and flexible modelling tool. In this paper the model has been analyzed to assess sensitivity of the simulated chlorophyll-a concentration to a subset of ecologically significant input factors. Only a small number of approaches could be considered as suitable for several reasons including the model complexity, engagement of numerous interacting parameters and relatively long time of a single simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis has been carried out with the use of the Morris method and later enriched by the computation of the correlation ratios of the selected parameters on the model response at more than a few locations in the modelled area. The obtained results are in agreement with expert knowledge of the ecological processes in the North Sea and correspond well with local characteristics.     

Estimating the influence of overhead transmission power lines and landscape context on the density of little bustard Tetrax tetrax breeding populations

Collision with conductors and earth cables is a known impact generated by transmission power lines, however there is virtually no information on how these infrastructures might affect bird distribution in a landscape context. With this work we specifically hypothesise that transmission power lines may affect the occurrence of a threatened bird, the little bustard (Tetrax tetrax). To test this hypothesis we used a Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM), analysing the effects of power lines in a landscape perspective and simulating population trends as a response to power line installation and habitat changes induced by agricultural shifts in southern Portugal. The data used in the dynamic model construction included relevant gradients of environmental conditions and was sampled during the breeding seasons of 2003-2006. Transmission power lines were significantly avoided by the little bustard and the developed StDM model showed that the distance to these utility structures is the most important factor determining breeding densities in sites with suitable habitat for the species, which possibly leads to displacement of populations and habitat fragmentation. The model simulations also provided the base to analyse the cumulative effects caused by the habitat degradation that can ultimately lead to the extinction of local populations. Within priority conservation sites, the dismantling of existing transmission lines should be considered whenever possible, in order to ensure adequate breeding habitat. The model is considered useful as an auxiliary tool to be used in environmental impact assessments, management and conservation studies.     

Human Performance Cognitive-Behavioral Modeling: A Benefit for Occupational Safety

Human Performance Modeling (HPM) is a computer-aided job analysis software methodology used to generate predictions of complex humanautomation integration and system flow patterns with the goal of improving operator and system safety. The use of HPM tools has recently been increasing due to reductions in computational cost, augmentations in the tool’s fidelity, and usefulness in the generated output. An examination of an Air Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (Air MIDAS) model evaluating complex human-automation integration currently underway at NASA Ames Research Center will highlight the importance to occupational safety of considering both cognitive and physical aspects of performance when researching human error.     

微波诱导热解制备小麦秸秆吸附剂及响应面优化工艺研究

以氯化锌为活化剂,通过微波诱导热解法制备小麦秸秆吸附剂,并以微波功率、热解时间和氯化锌质量分数为影响因素,碘吸附值为响应值,采用响应面法对小麦秸秆吸附剂的制备工艺进行优化。结果表明,热解时间和微波功率对碘吸附值的交互作用明显。响应面优化工艺分析,发现当热解时间4.03 min、微波功率569.0 W,氯化锌质量分数为31.24%时,碘吸附值最大,为643.33 mg/g。另外,小麦秸秆吸附等温线与I型相似,吸附剂的微孔容积为0.238 4cm³/g,吸附剂的BJH孔径分布表现窄小,最高峰出现在2.1nm左右。处理Cr(VI)废水的吸附试验,发现Cr(VI)的去除率可以达到70%以上。研究表明,微波诱导热解法及响应面优化工艺制备的小麦秸秆吸附剂技术可行且具有良好的重金属废水处理应用前景。     

城市高污染燃料禁燃区规划方法及案例研究

在总结高污染燃料禁燃区实际规划过程中的经验、参考已有的大气污染控制规划方法的基础上,针对目前高污染燃料禁燃区规划实践中的不足,将情景分析法、模型分析法以及地理信息系统技术(GIS)应用于规划中,提出并发展了一套解决城市或地区高污染燃料禁燃区规划的整体技术方案,并通过该方法体系在珠海市高污染燃料禁燃区规划中的实际案例分析,显示了该方法的可行性与可操作性,为全国其他城市的高污染燃料禁燃区的合理规划提供了一个实例和参考。     

水质模型参数识别与验证的探讨

参数识别与模型验证是水质模型应用的两个重要步骤。在对模型参数的本质含义进行辨析的基础上,对模型参数的时变性、集成性和可识别性进行了分析。采用科学哲学的方法,对水质模型验证的必要性和不足进行了讨论,指出虽然模型验证必不可少,但也不能证实模型本身就是实际物理和生化过程的反映,因此应充分地意识到“经过验证的”模型在预测中的风险。     

FSILP: fuzzy-stochastic-interval linear programming for supporting municipal solid waste management

Although many studies on municipal solid waste management (MSW management) were conducted under uncertain conditions of fuzzy, stochastic, and interval coexistence, the solution to the conventional linear programming problems of integrating fuzzy method with the other two was inefficient. In this study, a fuzzy-stochastic-interval linear programming (FSILP) method is developed by integrating Nguyen's method with conventional linear programming for supporting municipal solid waste management. The Nguyen's method was used to convert the fuzzy and fuzzy-stochastic linear programming problems into the conventional linear programs, by measuring the attainment values of fuzzy numbers and/or fuzzy random variables, as well as superiority and inferiority between triangular fuzzy numbers/triangular fuzzy-stochastic variables. The developed method can effectively tackle uncertainties described in terms of probability density functions, fuzzy membership functions, and discrete intervals. Moreover, the method can also improve upon the conventional interval fuzzy programming and two-stage stochastic programming approaches, with advantageous capabilities that are easily achieved with fewer constraints and significantly reduces consumption time. The developed model was applied to a case study of municipal solid waste management system in a city. The results indicated that reasonable solutions had been generated. The solution can help quantify the relationship between the change of system cost and the uncertainties, which could support further analysis of tradeoffs between the waste management cost and the system failure risk.     

Suitability of short or long conservation contracts under ecological and socio-economic uncertainty

Acquisition of land rights has become a primary tool used to protect terrestrial biodiversity. Fixed length contracts are often used when trying to secure conservation benefits on private land in agri-environment schemes and payment for environmental services schemes, but the duration of the conservation contracts used in different programmes varies. To date, very little research has been undertaken to determine the situations in which contracts of differing lengths are optimal or when conservation agencies or groups should use a portfolio of different contract lengths rather than relying on a single type. Using stochastic dynamic programming and related heuristic methods, we investigate how the choice between short or long conservation contracts is affected by uncertainty regarding the future availability of sites and their ecological condition. We also examine the benefits offered by using a portfolio of different contract lengths. Conservation agencies must pay private landowners a premium to secure longer agreements and because of this, shorter contracts are advantageous if sites are likely to remain available for conservation in the future. Long contracts are preferred when future site availability becomes more unlikely. In contrast to uncertainty over site availability, uncertainty over future ecological conditions has little effect on contract selection and only markedly influences the choice between short and long contracts when there is heterogeneity across sites in expected conservation outcomes and future availability of sites is also uncertain. Finally, when future site availability is unlikely, the use of a portfolio of short and long contracts would offer greater conservation gains than using either type in isolation, even though this option is not yet one that is commonly found in conservation practice.     

Household incidence of pollution control policies: A robust welfare analysis using general equilibrium effects

This study assesses the incidence of pollution control policies on households. In contrast to previous studies, we employ an integrated framework combining a multisector general equilibrium model with a stochastic dominance analysis using household-level data. We consider three policy instruments in a domestic emission trading system: (i) an output-based allocation (OBA) of permits; (ii) the use of the proceeds of permit sales to reduce payroll taxes (RPT); (iii) and the use of these proceeds to reduce consumption taxes instead (UCS). The general equilibrium results suggest that the return to capital is more negatively affected than the wage rate in all simulations, since polluting industries are capital intensive. Abstracting from pollution externalities, the dominance analysis suggests that all three policies have a normatively robust negative (positive) impact on welfare (poverty). Formal dominance tests indicate that RPT first-order welfare dominates OBA over all values of household incomes. UCS also first-order poverty dominates RPT for any choice of poverty line below $CAN 18,600, and poverty dominates for any poverty line (and thus welfare dominates) at the second order. Finally, while the three pollution control policies do not have a numerically large impact on inequality (in comparison to the base run), statistical tests indicate that inequality increases significantly more with OBA and RPT than with UCS.