突发事件系统优化管理

首先对突发事件类型及要素进行了分析,认为突发事件是由孕育环境、突发事件、社会冲击场三者组成,其最大属性是作用时间的快慢和空间影响范围的大小;其次,对突发事件管理进行探讨,认为突发事件管理涉及致灾因子、社会承灾体、以及监测和预报评估等多方面,对这些方面进行优化设计,可以提高整个突发事件管理系统日常运行和应急效率.     

基于目标规划模型的大连市水资源承载力分析

结合“大大连”建设的规划和“十五”及2010年远景规划,选取了人口、国内生产总值、公共绿地面积三个决策变量建立目标规划模型,采取3种方案对大连市水资源承载力进行预测,通过对预测结果的分析并结合水资源承载力的特点提出增强水资源承载力的方案:以可持续发展的观点来设计城市发展规划;调整和改造产业结构;改变城市绿化结构;兴修水利,发展节水技术达到水资源可持续利用。     

基于模糊BP神经网络的深基坑支护方案优选

介绍了深基坑支护方案优选模型的建立过程及其实例分析。基于深基坑支护方案优选影响因素的模糊性和因素之间的关联性,笔者将模糊优选理论与神经网络理论相结合,在详细分析深基坑支护方案优选影响因素的基础上,建立了4层深基坑支护方案模糊BP优选神经网络模型,提出了模型参数和方案优选反馈计算的方法。应用该方法对北京市某广场大厦的基坑支护方案进行了分析,实例结果表明,采用该方法所进行的深基坑支护方案优选,获得令人满意的效果,是一种值得推广的方法。     

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHANGES IN WATER AVAILABILITY ON AGRICULTURE IN THE TRUCKEE AND CARSON RIVER BASINS,NEVADA, USA1

ABSTRACT: Effects of climate change are likely to be detected in nearly all sectors and regions of the economy, with both winners and losers. One of the consequences of climatic changes could be altered regional water supplies. This paper presents an investigation of regional agricultural implications of changes in water availability. Specifically, using a profit maximization approach, the economic consequences of altered water availability in the Great Basin of Nevada are analyzed in terms of the effects on net returns of agricultural producers. Under the scenarios analyzed in this paper, it is found that with adequate water systems, increase in streamflow and consequent increase in water availability could significantly benefit agricultural producers of this region. Net returns to irrigators could increase by 8 to 13 percent, not taking into account the possibility of changes in crop yields and prices. It is also shown that the benefits from increased water availability are sensitive to likely crop yield and price changes. The potential for adverse effects of climatic changes on water supply is also considered by analyzing the effects of decreased water availability. Under decreased water availability scenarios, farmer net returns decrease substantially.     

COMPROMISE PROGRAMMING METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING INSTREAM FLOW UNDER MULTIOBJECTIVE WATER ALLOCATION CRITERIA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a quantitative assessment framework for determining the instream flow under multiobjective water allocation criteria. The Range of Variability Approach (RVA) is employed to evaluate the hydrologic alterations caused by flow diversions, and the resulting degrees of alteration for the 32 Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHAs) are integrated as an overall degree of hydrologic alteration. By including this index in the objective function, it is possible to optimize the water allocation scheme using compromise programming to minimize the hydrologic alteration and water supply shortages. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of the Kaoping diversion weir in Taiwan. The results indicate that the current release of 9.5 m³/s as a minimum instream flow does not effectively mitigate the highly altered hydrologic regime. Increasing the instream flow would reduce the overall degree of hydrologic alteration; however, this is achieved at the cost of increasing the water supply shortages. The effects on the optimal instream flow of the weighting factors assigned to water supplies and natural flow variations are also investigated. With equal weighting assigned to the multiple objectives, the optimal instream flow of 26 m³/s leads to a less severely altered hydrologic regime, especially for those low‐flow characteristics, thereby providing a better protection of the riverine environment.     

矿井通风系统优化调节研究

采用"征求专家评议法"和"相对重要性序列法"确定矿井通风系统的评价指标及其权值,并用多级模糊综合评判法对初拟的矿井通风系统改造方案进行解算,按照最大隶属度法确定最优解,找出最优的矿井通风系统改造方案.为便于分析计算,开发了相应的计算机应用程序,实现了智能化、系统化、信息化矿井通风管理,并以协庄煤矿为例进行了实际应用.     

正压气力除灰系统的优化设计

从气力除灰系统的经济性考虑，按照系统运行能耗最省的原则，对系统进行优化设计。以山东临沂电厂除灰系统为例，优化出灰气比、管径、系统压损、耗气量等技术指标。实际运行效果证明这种优化设计方法是可行的，为该系统的推广应用提供了优化设计依据。     

MULTIPURPOSE OPERATION STUDIES OF A CANAL-LAKE-RIVER SYSTEM-OSWEGO RIVER SYSTEM,NEW YORK1

Use of systems analysis techniques for setting up flow regulation rules for the Oswego River System, a canal-river system with eight lakes, was examined. Two sets of lake regulation rules were proposed: the rule curve for each lake, and the lake-use priority curves for all the lakes. The former specifies balanced allocation of the storage in lakes to conservation pools and flood control pools and, the latter determines lakes releases depending upon the type of operation, the time of the year, and systems objectives. A generalized mathematical representation of the complex, multipurpose, multilake river systems operation is described. With appropriate measures of effectiveness and details of analysis, the problem was then solved with simulation and optimization. Use of the results in assisting basin plan formulation is also discussed.     

基于粗糙集——粒子群神经网络的建设项目安全预测研究

回顾施工项目安全管理和安全管理研究现状,建立建设项目安全管理指标体系。利用人工神经网络非线性函数逼近能力,对项目风险因素程度预测。针对该网络当数据量大时,其结构复杂、收敛慢,易陷入局部最优的缺点,引入粗糙集对影响建设项目安全目标的不确定性因素进行约简,找出最小不确定性风险因素集,大大简化网络输入信息的表达空间维数。并结合粒子群算法收敛速度快、全局最优的寻优能力强的优点,建立基于粗糙集——粒子群神经网络的建设项目安全预测系统。通过实例验证该系统的科学性和有效性。     

生态渔业效益综合指标体系的研究

通过对湖北省现行生态渔业系统环境生态结构与功能效益的调查和评价，建立了生态渔业效益综合评价指标体系，为合理培植利用资源，保护生态环境，推进生态渔业经济发展，并对其类型结构不断优化与调控提供了决策参考。