基于理想点法的邻近基坑高层建筑安全性评价

为更加准确地评价紧邻基坑高层建筑物的安全状况,综合考虑了建筑物稳定性、基坑与建筑之间土体扰动程度和建筑物地基抗扰动能力三方面因素,采用相关系数法选取14个评价指标,构建建筑物安全评价模型。并通过变异系数法和AHP确定各评价指标融合权重,最后采用理想点法对某紧邻基坑的高层建筑物进行安全评价。结果表明,该模型可以有效判断邻近深基坑高层建筑物的安全等级,其评判结果与工程实际相符     

Ergonomic Diagnosis of the Driver’s Workplace in an Electric Locomotive

This paper deals with research aimed at developing a method for ergonomic analysis of the driver’s workplace in an electric locomotive. It presents the structure of the diagnosis and its assumptions, and includes a re-evaluation of the questionnaire-expert method in ergonomic research. The article presents research data on weights and evaluations including their standard deviations for particular priority features. Ergonomic levels of the studied operator’s cabin in locomotives are compared.     

Will progress in science and technology avert or accelerate global collapse? A critical analysis and policy recommendations

Industrial society will move towards collapse if its total environmental impact (I), expressed either in terms of energy and materials use or in terms of pollution, increases with time, i.e., dI/dt > 0. The traditional interpretation of the I = PAT equation reflects the optimistic belief that technological innovation, particularly improvements in eco-efficiency, will significantly reduce the technology (T) factor, and thereby result in a corresponding decline in impact (I). Unfortunately, this interpretation of the I = PAT equation ignores the effects of technological change on the other two factors: population (P) and per capita affluence (A). A more heuristic formulation of this equation is I = P(T)·A(T)·T in which the dependence of P and A on T is apparent. From historical evidence, it is clear that technological revolutions (tool-making, agricultural, and industrial) have been the primary driving forces behind successive population explosions, and that modern communication and transportation technologies have been employed to transform a large proportion of the world’s inhabitants into consumers of material- and energy-intensive products and services. In addition, factor analysis from neoclassical growth theory and the rebound effect provide evidence that science and technology have played a key role in contributing to rising living standards. While technological change has thus contributed to significant increases in both P and A, it has at the same time brought about considerable eco-efficiency improvements. Unfortunately, reductions in the T-factor have generally not been sufficiently rapid to compensate for the simultaneous increases in both P and A. As a result, total impact, in terms of energy production, mineral extraction, land-use and CO₂ emissions, has in most cases increased with time, indicating that industrial society is nevertheless moving towards collapse. The belief that continued and even accelerated scientific research and technological innovation will automatically result in sustainability and avert collapse is at best mistaken. Innovations in science and technology will be necessary but alone will be insufficient for sustainability. Consequently, what is most needed are specific policies designed to decrease total impact, such as (a) halting population growth via effective population stabilization plans and better access to birth control methods, (b) reducing total matter-energy throughput and pollution by removing perverse subsidies, imposing regulations that limit waste discharges and the depletion of non-renewable resources, and implementing ecological tax reform, and (c) moving towards a steady-state economy in which per-capita affluence is stabilized at lower levels by replacing wasteful conspicuous material consumption with social alternatives known to enhance subjective well-being. While science and technology must play an important role in the implementation of these policies, none will be enacted without a fundamental change in society’s dominant values of growth and exploitation. Thus, value change is the most important prerequisite for avoiding global collapse.

氯代芳香族化合物结构-电化学还原电位定量关系的贝叶斯规整化BP神经网络模型

将贝叶斯规整化误差反向传播神经网络(BRBPNN)应用于环境领域的 QSPR模型.采用ChemOffice2004内置的MOPAC 2000计算了6种量子化学参数(分子最高占据能EHOMO、分子最低占据能ELUMO、分子生成热HF、分子偶极矩DIP、分子的电子能量EE和分子的核核排斥能CCR)以及氯原子数(Cl)和分子量(MW),建立了87种氯代芳香族化合物结构与电化学还原电位定量关系的BRBPNN模型.最优网络模型结构为6-20-1,其电化学还原电位的拟合及预测能力明显优于逐步线性回归模型,其训练集和预测集的相关系数平方和均方根误差(MSE)分别达到0.999和0.000105,0.965和 0.00159.最优模型输入节点到隐含层权重平方和的分布规律揭示出各种描述符对还原电位的影响大小依次为: E_LUMO>E_HOMO>HF>CCR>EE>DIP.由散点图揭示出影响为正有EE;影响为负有E_LUMO,HF,DIP;影响无明显正负性的有E_LUMO,CCR.结果表明,贝叶斯规整化大大方便了网络规整化参数选择,保证了网络的优良概括能力和稳健性.本研究对氯代芳香族化合物采用电化学处理的适用性以及分析相应电化学降解机理提供了依据.     

Quantifying the efficiency of soil sampling designs: A multivariate approach

The objective of this paper is to quantify and compare the loss functions of the standard two-stage design and its composite sample alternative in the context of multivariate soil sampling. The loss function is defined (conceptually) as the ratio of cost over information and measures design inefficiency. The efficiency of the design is the reciprocal of the loss function. The focus of this paper is twofold: (a) we define a measure of multivariate information using the Kullback–Leibler distance, and (b) we derive the variance-covariance structure for two soil sampling designs: a standard two-stage design and its composite sample counterpart. Randomness in the mass of soil samples is taken into account in both designs. A pilot study in Slovenia is used to demonstrate the calculations of the loss function and to compare the efficiency of the two designs. The results show that the composite sample design is more efficient than the two-stage design. The efficiency ratio is 1.3 for pH, 2.0 for C, 2.1 for N, and 2.5 for CEC. The multivariate efficiency ratio is 2.3. These ratios primarily reflect cost ratios; influence of the information is small.     

基于GSPA-IAHP模型的油库火灾风险评价

目的对诱发油库火灾的风险进行分析,保障油库系统的安全。方法将区间层次分析法(Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process,IAHP)和广义集对分析法(Generalized Set Pair Analysis,GSPA)相结合,建立GSPA-IAHP模型,构建三级层次结构体系,从原料及工艺、设备设施、管理措施、火源控制方面分析引发油库火灾的风险因素,并运用Matlab软件计算各项评价指标的权重,对各个风险因素进行重要度排序。结果通过分析得出影响油库发生火灾最大的6个风险因素分别是:明火、防火状况、防静电设备、防雷设备、原料危险性、工作人员素质。结论该评价方法对于油库火灾风险的评价具有适用性和有效性,并为后期的油库安全管理提供科学依据。     

Reaching environmental decisions: Making subjective and objective judgments

Objective judgments, external to the judge, are compared with subjective, internal judgments. This analysis is made in the context of reaching regulatory decisions affecting the human environment. Examples given include evaluating the potential risk of industrial chemicals and comparing the potential effects of short- and long-term changes in land use. The analysis deals not with the decisions themselves, but rather with the kinds of questions that must be posed in orderto reach such decisions. Decision makers may spuriously distinguish objective from subjective types of judgment, though these are rarely wholly separate. Judges can hardly dispute about objective statements, if truly identical definitions are used. But subjective statements can reasonably be voted upon. Scientists, engineers, and economists represent logical or objective decision makers, tending to work in groups. Subjective thinkers include artists and performers, and others who often work alone. Moral and aesthetic aspects of questions, usually seen as intangible, are treated as if subjective. Financial decisions, usually viewed as tangible, are handled as objective problems. This mechanism for making decisions is well-established in environmental assessment. Though objective questions can be treated well in the monetary terms of cost-benefit analysis, subjective ones cannot. Mathematical and other variants are discussed in relation to the comparison of alternative types of tests.     

Making decisions about environmental management when conventional economic analysis cannot be used

A process is described for making comparative valuations of a wide range of environmental management activities when the combined social, economic, managerial, and political benefits of some (but not all) of these activities cannot be adequately described in economic terms and when budgetary constraints do not permit funding of all activities under consideration. The process accounts for subjective judgment and contains a formal rigorous decision strategy that takes the place of intuition when quantitative and qualitative values of environmental activities need to be evaluated.     

关于Ramsey模型及其改进的研究和启示

缺水已经成为我国经济发展和社会进步的重要制约因素之一．而对水价的制定到对水资源的利用效率起科十分关键的作用。本文通过对Ramsey模型及其改进的研究．得出如下启示．即实行阶梯水价既有利于实现杜会福利的优化，也可以起到节约水资源的效果。由于阶梯水价机制的设计可以为制度安排、资本进入和市场运行提供更大的弹性空间．因此．本文的政策含义是：在实施阶梯水价的背景下．政府只需对基量水价按边际成本的定价原则来严格规制．从而有效提升水务市场的运行效率。上述举措的优点在于：由于基量水价被严格规制．消费者的基本用水福利可以得到满足；超过基本用水量的水价和再生水价的相对放松规制会鼓励社会资本进入水务行业．使行业运营效率得到提高；国有资本退出水务行业使得政府财政负担减轻，同时．由于放松规制．政府的规制成本也得以降低。最终城市水务行业可以真正做到可持续的发展。