Uncertainty and measurement error in welfare models for risk changes

Most welfare models of environmental or mortality risk reductions assume that risks are exogenously determined and known with certainty. However, a growing body of research suggests that uncertainty about risks can affect choices over risky prospects. I present a decision-weighted random-utility model that decomposes welfare losses into those attributable to an increase in the deterministic component of risk and those attributable to uncertainty about risk. I apply the model to an illustrative dataset of subjects' perceived mortality risk and willingness to accept the risk of nuclear-waste transport. I estimate the model using Lewbel's (2000) strictly exogenous regressor approach to account for endogeneity bias and measurement error. Subjects display aversion to both risk and uncertainty about the risk of a transport accident, so that increases in either leads to social-welfare losses. Roughly 12% of the external cost of nuclear-waste transport is attributable to the public's uncertainty about transport risk.     

四川省不同类型山洪灾害与主要影响因素的关系

以四川省为例,在明确溪河洪水及其引发的滑坡、泥石流三类山洪灾害分布格局的基础上,构建概念模型,分析降雨、地形、人口资产易损性等引发山洪灾害的基本因子和土壤、河网密度、土地利用等一般因子对不同类型山洪灾害的影响程度,并比较它们的异同。结果表明:(1)四川省山洪灾害主要分布在盆周山区、川西高原和横断山脉一带;(2)如果3项基本因子可以解释山洪灾害空间分布100%的变化,则它们对三类灾害的影响程度分别为:溪河洪水,降雨59%、地形28%、人口资产13%;泥石流,降雨15%、地形73%、人口资产12%;滑坡,降雨48%、地形34%、人口资产18%;(3)总体上,泥石流灾害对地形、岩性、土地利用等下垫面因子的依赖更高,而溪河洪水和滑坡灾害受降雨要素的影响更大。     

广东省清远市PM2.5污染天气分型及污染潜在源区分析

利用2016—2021年清远市逐时空气质量监测数据和相关气象资料,基于统计分析、主观天气分型方法和后向轨迹模式（HYSPLIT）,归纳总结粤北代表城市清远市在不同细颗粒物（PM_2.5 ）污染天气分型下的气象要素特征及污染潜在源区特征,为大气污染精细化防控提供有效参考。结果表明：在日均风速＜2m/s、日均相对湿度为75%～90%、日均气温为18～22℃时的无降水或微量降水天气下,清远市易出现PM_2.5 污染。变性高压脊型、脊后槽前型、冷锋前型、弱冷高压脊型、高压底后部型、台风外围型是造成清远市PM_2.5 污染的典型天气型,其中PM_2.5 重度污染均出现在秋、冬季弱冷高压脊型控制下;变性高压脊型下出现PM_2.5 轻度和中度污染的频率最高;脊后槽前型是清远市春季PM_2.5 污染的主要天气型;冷锋前型、高压底后部型和台风外围型下的PM_2.5 污染程度较轻。加剧清远市PM_2.5 污染的主要气流轨迹为弱偏南气流和南北气流辐合,当弱偏南气流控制时,污染潜在源区主要位于清远市辖区及广州、佛山、东莞、江门等珠三角城市;当南北气流辐合时,潜在源区主要位于清远市南部、韶关及珠三角,南岭山脉阻挡作用削弱了偏北方向长距离输送的PM_2.5 污染。     

Reaching environmental decisions: Making subjective and objective judgments

Objective judgments, external to the judge, are compared with subjective, internal judgments. This analysis is made in the context of reaching regulatory decisions affecting the human environment. Examples given include evaluating the potential risk of industrial chemicals and comparing the potential effects of short- and long-term changes in land use. The analysis deals not with the decisions themselves, but rather with the kinds of questions that must be posed in orderto reach such decisions. Decision makers may spuriously distinguish objective from subjective types of judgment, though these are rarely wholly separate. Judges can hardly dispute about objective statements, if truly identical definitions are used. But subjective statements can reasonably be voted upon. Scientists, engineers, and economists represent logical or objective decision makers, tending to work in groups. Subjective thinkers include artists and performers, and others who often work alone. Moral and aesthetic aspects of questions, usually seen as intangible, are treated as if subjective. Financial decisions, usually viewed as tangible, are handled as objective problems. This mechanism for making decisions is well-established in environmental assessment. Though objective questions can be treated well in the monetary terms of cost-benefit analysis, subjective ones cannot. Mathematical and other variants are discussed in relation to the comparison of alternative types of tests.     

Making decisions about environmental management when conventional economic analysis cannot be used

A process is described for making comparative valuations of a wide range of environmental management activities when the combined social, economic, managerial, and political benefits of some (but not all) of these activities cannot be adequately described in economic terms and when budgetary constraints do not permit funding of all activities under consideration. The process accounts for subjective judgment and contains a formal rigorous decision strategy that takes the place of intuition when quantitative and qualitative values of environmental activities need to be evaluated.     

Revisiting the trustworthiness–trust relationship: Exploring the differential predictors of cognition- and affect-based trust

We seek to develop a better understanding of interpersonal trust by bridging the gap between two heretofore distinct paradigms of trust. One paradigm views trust in terms of two dimensions: cognition- and affect-based. The other paradigm views trust as being distinct from trustworthiness, which has four dimensions: ability, behavioral integrity, benevolence, and values congruence. Currently, theoretical consensus is lacking about the antecedents of cognition- and affect-based trust in the first paradigm that incorporates insights from research on trustworthiness in the second paradigm. We show that this lack of consensus is problematic for internal knowledge development and external knowledge expansion. Thus, we join both paradigms by theorizing that ability and behavioral integrity are the most important predictors of cognition-based trust, whereas benevolence and values congruence are the most important predictors of affect-based trust. Across two samples, we found that our predictions were largely supported. Based on relative weights analysis, ability and behavioral integrity were more important than values congruence in predicting cognition-based trust, and benevolence was more important than ability in predicting affect-based trust. Furthermore, we found evidence that these relationships were largely robust to changes in the referent of analysis.     

关于Ramsey模型及其改进的研究和启示

缺水已经成为我国经济发展和社会进步的重要制约因素之一．而对水价的制定到对水资源的利用效率起科十分关键的作用。本文通过对Ramsey模型及其改进的研究．得出如下启示．即实行阶梯水价既有利于实现杜会福利的优化，也可以起到节约水资源的效果。由于阶梯水价机制的设计可以为制度安排、资本进入和市场运行提供更大的弹性空间．因此．本文的政策含义是：在实施阶梯水价的背景下．政府只需对基量水价按边际成本的定价原则来严格规制．从而有效提升水务市场的运行效率。上述举措的优点在于：由于基量水价被严格规制．消费者的基本用水福利可以得到满足；超过基本用水量的水价和再生水价的相对放松规制会鼓励社会资本进入水务行业．使行业运营效率得到提高；国有资本退出水务行业使得政府财政负担减轻，同时．由于放松规制．政府的规制成本也得以降低。最终城市水务行业可以真正做到可持续的发展。     

输气管道隧道的脆弱性评估方法研究

为研究输气管道隧道的脆弱性,结合工程和实践研究,建立管道本体致灾因子、隧道本体致灾因子、人为致灾因子和环境致灾因子4个方面共16个底层因素的指标体系。采用加速遗传算法改进的层次分析法（AGA-AHP）计算脆弱性级别权重和样本集权重。对于脆弱性级别权重边界突变的问题,用拟合曲线的方法来解决。运用组合权重与模糊综合评价法相结合的方法,按照不同隶属原则分别对系统整体和各子系统的脆弱性进行对比评估。实例分析结果表明,该输气管道隧道表现为中脆弱性,管道公司应及时采取有效措施整治和改善。     

基于GSPA-IAHP模型的油库火灾风险评价

目的对诱发油库火灾的风险进行分析,保障油库系统的安全。方法将区间层次分析法(Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process,IAHP)和广义集对分析法(Generalized Set Pair Analysis,GSPA)相结合,建立GSPA-IAHP模型,构建三级层次结构体系,从原料及工艺、设备设施、管理措施、火源控制方面分析引发油库火灾的风险因素,并运用Matlab软件计算各项评价指标的权重,对各个风险因素进行重要度排序。结果通过分析得出影响油库发生火灾最大的6个风险因素分别是:明火、防火状况、防静电设备、防雷设备、原料危险性、工作人员素质。结论该评价方法对于油库火灾风险的评价具有适用性和有效性,并为后期的油库安全管理提供科学依据。