斜拉索跨越管桥安全状况评定方法研究

为有效地了解油气长输管道中斜拉索跨越管桥的安全状况,保障管道正常运行,建立一种斜拉索跨越管桥安全状况评定方法。在工程实际的基础上,借鉴《公路桥梁技术状况评定标准》斜拉桥技术状况评定思想,针对跨越油气管道自身特点,构建斜拉索跨越管桥安全状况评定指标体系。结合网络层次分析法和熵权法,计算指标的组合权重。根据指标评分,求得斜拉索管桥的安全状况分值,确定安全状况评定等级。结果表明:管桥系指标对斜拉索跨越管桥安全状况的影响程度最大,应作为安全保护工作的重点;实例分析中,斜拉索跨越管桥安全状况评定等级为3级,其中锚固墩安全状况较差,管道管理方应结合现场检测及安全状况评定结果,及时采取有效的治理措施。     

Losses to the environment from the multilevel cycle of anthropogenic lead

As a component of a multi-level study of the anthropogenic lead cycle for year 2000 (52 countries, 8 regions, and the planet), we have estimated the lead flows in seven emission streams: tailings, slag, fabrication and manufacturing, dissipation from use, hibernation, landfilling, and dispersion following product discard. For every 1 kg of lead put into end use, 0.5 kg is lost to the environment, largely due to landfilling and dissipation from use. From the standpoint of the receiving media, 1/3 of the losses are to uncontained solids on land and 48% of the losses are to containment facilities on land. On a country basis, the largest losses occur in the United States and China, which between them are responsible for about 32% of total global lead losses. On a per capita basis, the highest lead losses occurred in the United Kingdom, Belgium-Luxembourg, and Ireland.     

Evaluation of soil erosion risk using Analytic Network Process and GIS: A case study from Spanish mountain olive plantations

The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.     

基于线性变换的水质综合评价方法

对于多个因子的水质综合评价存在很多不同方法,尚未形成公认的权威评价方法。因而,对水质综合评价方法进行探索有利于积累研究经验,丰富方法手段。在把数据向[0 1]区间标准化的基础上,通过线性空间变换,把水质样本数据与《地表水环境质量标准》(GB3838-2002)数据转换到同一线性空间。计算水质样本数据向量与5类水质划分等级标准数据向量的欧式距离,把欧式距离的最小值作为水质类别辨别的依据,最终得到水质的综合评价结果。借由已经公开发表的19个断面水质监测数据,运用大型工程计算软件Matlab 2010b进行计算,并与变权欧式距离模型、灰色聚类法、模糊综合指数法和BP神经网络法的评价结果相比较,符合性较好,验证了线性空间变换法应用于水质综合评价的科学性和合理性。方法可用于水质综合评价。在不对污染因子进行加权的情况下,基于线性变换的水质综合评价方法,获得的评价结果较轻。对于被评价为同一类水质的不同监测断面,可以借助"评价单元与5级水质标准的欧式距离矩阵",对评价单元水质差异进一步辨识。     

陕西省能源消费的组合预测

组合预测理论及建模技术对于信息不完备的复杂经济系统具有一定的实用性。鉴于能源消费系统的复杂性及非线性的特征,文章首先利用陕西能源消费量的历史数据,分别采用指数回归模型、能源需求弹性回归模型及灰色模型建立了陕西省能源消费系统的单项预测模型。其次,采用标准差法进行非负权重分配,建立了陕西省能源消费量的组合预测模型。结果表明,加入时间虚拟变量和分段建模的预测精度明显提高,且组合预测模型的精度高于单项预测模型。最后,应用该模型对陕西未来10年的能源消费量进行了预测。     

基于直觉模糊AHP和灰色关联法的应急避难所选择

为了做好灾害事前应对,需要构建合理的应急避难所选择评价体系。针对传统的选择评价方法在确立权重时未消除主观因素的影响,并且利用TOPSIS方法不能确定评价对象关于优劣方案连线对称的排序等问题,提出基于改进直觉模糊AHP和灰色关联评价模型,首先利用非隶属度最大限度地减少人为偏差,然后利用各个避难所与最优方案的关联度来确定优劣,使得避难所选择最优化,减少资源闲置。通过实例,验证了该方法的合理性和有效性。     

Impact of fertilization on chestnut growth, N and P concentrations in runo water on degraded slope land in South China

Growing fruit trees on the slopes of rolling hills in South China was causing serious environmental problems because of heavy application of chemical fertilizers and soil erosion. Suitable sources of fertilizers and proper rates of applications were of key importance to both crop yields and environmental protection. In this article, the impact of four fertilizers, i.e., inorganic compound fertilizer, organic compound fertilizer, pig manure compost, and peanut cake （peanut oil pressing residue）, on chestnut （Castanea mollissima Blume） growth on a slope in South China, and on the total N and total P concentrations in runoff waters have been investigated during two years of study, with an orthogonal experimental design. Results show that the organic compound fertilizer and peanut cake promote the heights of young chestnut trees compared to the control. In addition, peanut cake increases single-fruit weights and organic compound fertilizer raises single-seed weights. All the fertilizers increased the concentrations of total N and total P in runoff waters, except for organic compound fertilizer, in the first year experiment. The observed mean concentrations of total N varied from 1.6 mg/L to 3.2 mg/L and P from 0.12 mg/L to 0.22 mg/L, which were increased with the amount of fertilizer applications, with no pattern of direct proportion. On the basis of these experiment results, organic compound fertilizer at 2 kg/tree and peanut cake at 1 kg/tree are recommended to maximize chestnut growth and minimize water pollution.     

区域生态安全的组合权重评价模型

为了更准确合理地确定区域生态安全评价的指标权重,利用层次分析法求得主观权重,利用变异系数法求得客观权重,再用最小相对信息熵原理将它们合并为组合权重.结合“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)”模型框架,建立了指标体系和评价模型,分别计算3种权重下的生态安全指数.结果表明,使用组合权重的计算结果最符合实际状况.2010年兰州新区的生态安全综合指数为0.615 9,2015年为0.519 4,2020年为0.484 1,分别处于较安全、临界安全和临界安全状态.这表明当地生态安全状况有恶化趋势,新区应大力发展循环经济,推进清洁生产,加大环境污染防治力度,从而保障生态安全,促进经济社会可持续发展.     

基于变权的城镇用地扩展生态适宜性空间模糊评价——以江苏省太仓市为例

城镇用地生态适宜性评价有助于引导城镇用地合理扩展。针对传统评价方法的不足及生态适宜性的模糊性,提出基于局部惩罚型变权的空间模糊综合评价方法,并选择7项生态适宜性影响因素,在GIS软件的支持下对江苏省太仓市城镇用地的生态适宜性进行综合评判。结果显示,变权模型可灵活而合理地处理各评价单元各因素的权重值;研究区内适宜、基本适宜、较不适宜和不适宜于城镇扩展的土地分别占土地面积的25.89%、8.35%、37.43%和28.33%,其生态敏感性评价结果及其空间分布与实际相符,通过生态敏感性综合分值的比较可为城镇用地扩展区位选择提供依据。研究表明,基于变权的空间模糊综合评价凸显了"瓶颈"因素的否决作用,更能精确、合理地反映城镇用地扩展的生态适宜性状况。     

基于证据权重法的呼伦贝尔地区人为草原火险空间预测

应用证据权重法结合GIS空间分析,研究了呼伦贝尔地区人为草原火险。利用证据权重法定量化地分析了与人类活动密切相关的5个因子(乡村人口密度、载畜密度、居民点分布、城镇分布、公路网)与草原火点空间分布的关系,并建立了呼伦贝尔草原火险预测模型,据此在ARCVIEW的WofE扩展模块下生成一幅草原火险预测专题图,并将研究区划分为高、中、低三类风险区。研究表明:(1)呼伦贝尔草原火灾火点的空间分布与人类活动关系密切,尤其是乡村人口密度、公路网与居民点分布这三个因子,权重分别为0.5191,0.1945,0.2864;(2)证据权重法可以客观定量地表现出草原火险与人类活动的关系,因而可为草原火灾风险管理提供决策支持。