Applying the zoo model to conservation of threatened exceptional plant species

Maintaining a living plant collection is the most common method of ex situ conservation for plant species that cannot be seed banked (i.e., exceptional species). Viability of living collections, and their value for future conservation efforts, can be limited without coordinated efforts to track and manage individuals across institutions. Using a pedigree-focused approach, the zoological community has established an inter-institutional infrastructure to support long-term viability of captive animal populations. We assessed the ability of this coordinated metacollection infrastructure to support the conservation of 4 plant species curated in living collections at multiple botanic gardens around the world. Limitations in current practices include the inability to compile, share, and analyze plant collections data at the individual level, as well as difficulty in tracking original provenance of ex situ material. The coordinated metacollection framework used by zoos can be adopted by the botanical community to improve conservation outcomes by minimizing the loss of genetic diversity in collections. We suggest actions to improve ex situ conservation of exceptional plant species, including developing a central database to aggregate data and track unique individuals of priority threatened species among institutions and adapting a pedigree-based population management tool that incorporates life-history aspects unique to plants. If approached collaboratively across regional, national, and global scales, these actions could transform ex situ conservation of threatened plant species.     

“竞争申请制”:可持续发展政策试点与央地关系重构

可持续发展目标(SDGs)的提出,开启了人类可持续发展领域最宏大的政策实验,也为开展国际视野的比较公共政策研究提供了难得机遇。执行SDGs及国家可持续发展政策需要处理好中央政府与地方政府间关系,而政策试点是协调这一关系的重要政策工具。已有文献对经济政策试点做了较充分的研究,然而对旨在实现经济、社会与环境协调的可持续发展政策试点,现有研究尚缺乏成型理论。在复杂央地关系格局下,对于需持续投入成本且成果难以界定的可持续发展政策试点,其具有怎样的不同于经济政策试点的机制?此外,众多西方学者将美国作为政策试点研究的制度基础并视其为“民主实验室”。然而,政策试点在以中国为代表的不同体制国家中同样存在,并以多样的机制发挥作用。那么,不同国家体制内的可持续发展政策试点又有哪些异同?政策试点影响下中国既有的央地关系发生了怎样的重构?对此,本文基于最典型案例原则,选取中国与美国响应SDGs分别开展的政策试点进行比较研究。笔者识别了不同体制下试点机制的异同,指出中国基于“竞争申请制”开展的可持续发展政策试点强化了中央部委与地方政府间关系,形成了地方官员的可持续发展激励,保障了政策试点的实施。     

Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management

In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.     

基于成本收益理论的井场作业人员不安全行为决策分析

为有效制定油气田井场作业人员不安全行为的防范措施,降低事故发生可能性,基于成本收益理论建立油气田井场作业人员的行为决策模型,通过仿真计算定量分析了不同影响因素对不安全行为产生的影响程度。结果表明:正向激励和负向激励对不安全行为的降低幅度为21.8%,17.2%,负向激励和监督力度共同作用下不安全行为可降低44.8%。油田企业在保证利润的前提下应优先提升HSE奖励水平,合理控制罚金水平的同时加大管理监督力度,从而有效减少作业人员不安全行为的发生,保障企业的安全生产。     

基于AHP-联系熵的应急预案实施过程风险评估

应急预案制定后的实施对于事故发生后预案的顺利运行至关重要,因此,有必要对应急预案实施过程的风险水平进行度量。以应急预案实施过程作为研究对象,基于风险理论与AHP-联系熵耦合方法开展风险评估。以应急预案实施过程风险水平为目标层,应急预案的宣传教育和培训、应急资源的定期检查落实、应急演习训练、应急预案的实用性检验、应急预案电子化、事故回顾等过程要素作为策略层,实施方法科学高效、调动工作者积极的态度、领导的重视和能力、设备的完整性作为方案层,形成应急预案实施过程风险评估三级模型;运用联系熵表征风险标准与应急预案实施过程风险水平这2个集对之间的关联性,在AHP结构模型和权重分配的基础上计算加权熵并得到目标层的总联系熵,对比标准熵区间得到应急预案实施过程的整体风险等级。结果表明,采用AHP-联系熵度量方法提高了评价结果的结构性和准确性,比传统直接加权的方法更符合实际情况。     

基于文本挖掘的煤矿安全隐患管理研究

为探寻安全隐患的内在特征,加深安全管理人员对安全隐患的理解,提升安全管理效率。以潞安集团司马煤业有限公司2009—2015年安全隐患记录为数据源,利用Word2Vec模型构建安全隐患词向量模型,从模型中获取各类安全隐患主要相关词,利用桑基图解释安全隐患在不同隐患地点、生产作业单位的特征分布,并进一步揭示相关安全隐患的细节特征。结果表明:词向量模型能有效发掘安全隐患特征,桑基图能突出呈现安全隐患的关键信息流动。上述措施有助于管理人员深刻理解安全隐患数据中蕴含的潜在规律,为煤矿安全隐患排查治理工作提供依据,指导安全管理实践。     

基于复合治理理论的基层应急管理模式优化*

为弥补传统基层应急管理模式的短板,解决信息壁垒、协调困难、公众参与不足等问题。从复合性视角出发,阐述复合治理理论内涵,探讨复合治理与应急管理在主体、思维、过程、空间、目标上的契合性,并进一步分析基层应急管理的现实背景和困境,进而构建基于复合治理理论的基层应急管理模式,阐明模式基本结构和工作流程,最终提出理念树立、平台搭建、机制保障、队伍建设、制度安排、文化营造、技术支撑方面的优化路径。结果表明:复合治理理论的应用可以加强基层应急管理能力,促进多元主体协同共治。     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以化工多米诺事故为研究对象,探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法,梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程,并以1个天然气压气站为案例,验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

废荧光灯的环境污染对策探讨

废荧光灯管中的有害物质如果处置不当,会对人体健康和环境造成危害。目前国内大部分废荧光灯管未得到无害化处置,主要在指定的法规、有效的政策以及完善的运营机制方面存在很多弊端,应引起社会各界的关注和政府部门的重视。本文结合国内外废荧光灯管回收处置现状,针对存在的问题,提出源头控制、分类收集、多渠道回收、建立资金及资金补贴机制以及技术手段措施,为从根本上解决废旧灯管回收难的问题,并探索社会源危险废物的管理提供对策建议。     

Adaptation of Climate Model Projections of Streamflow to Account for Upstream Anthropogenic Impairments

A statistical procedure is developed to adjust natural streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches, to account for anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model. The resulting normalized downstream flows are appropriate for use in assessments of future anthropogenically impaired flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on future water availability on the Rio Grande at a gage just above the major storage reservoir on the river. Model‐simulated streamflow values were normalized using a statistical parameterization based on two constants that relate observed and simulated flows over a 50‐year historical baseline period (1964–2013). The first normalization constant is a ratio of the means, and the second constant is the ratio of interannual standard deviations between annual gaged and simulated flows. This procedure forces the gaged and simulated flows to have the same mean and variance over the baseline period. The normalization constants can be kept fixed for future flows, which effectively assumes that upstream water management does not change in the future, or projected management changes can be parameterized by adjusting the constants. At the gage considered in this study, the effect of the normalization is to reduce simulated historical flow values by an average of 72% over an ensemble of simulations, indicative of the large fraction of natural flow diverted from the river upstream from the gage. A weak tendency for declining flow emerges upon averaging over a large ensemble, with tremendous variability among the simulations. By the end of the 21st Century the higher‐emission scenarios show more pronounced declines in streamflow.