退耕还林:农户、地方政府与中央政府的博弈关系

自退耕还林工程实施以来,该工程进展顺利,并取得了显著的成绩.但随着财政补贴陆续到期,却未能解决退耕还林农户的长远生计问题.从博弈论的视角探讨退耕还林实施中的行为主体关系有利于该工程成果的巩固和工程的持续推进.文章首先评述退耕还林的相关文献,然后,用动态博弈模型分析农户与政府以及中央政府与地方政府的利益互动关系.文章得出的关键结论有:在贴现因子足够大的条件下任何短期的机会主义行为所带来的收益都小于长期合作所带来的长远收益,农户和政府采取长期合作是理性的选择行为;在中央政府先行动的情况下,地方政府实施退耕还林工程所带来的收益要大于中央政府后行动所带来的收益.基于上述结论,文章提出要确保国家政策的稳定性从而提高政府的信誉度、永久性地对退耕还林农户发放财政补贴、提高农户的贴现值从而稳定其预期、确保地方政府执行退耕还林工程的收益等政策建议.     

COMPUTATION OF RUNOFF REDUCTION CAUSED BY FARM PONDS1

ABSTRACT: A two-parameter farm pond storage index, FPSI, was Used to adjust computed surface. runoff using the partial area runoff contribution resulting from runoff captured by farm ponds. The validity of the index method was tested by fitting a continuous accounting version of the Soil Conservation Service curve number procedure to surface runoff data from each of three watersheds, first with and then without the FPSI routine. Evapotranspiration computed with the Jensen-Haise method and rainfall were input to the model. A linear relationship was assumed between the storage index and the portion of the controlled drainage area that was contributing to runoff. Adjusting the computed runoff with the FPSI reduced the coefficient of variation of monthly measured versus computed surface runoff for each of the three watersheds. The correlation coefficients for the same comparisons were increased. The annual predicted surface runoff Was improved for 12 of the 17 station years of data tested. The farm pond storage index could be used with any surface runoff model to improve the prediction of runoff from watersheds with drainage areas greater than 1 square mile and with about 20 percent or more of the drainage area controlled by farm ponds.     

大型油气(危化品)储罐区安全监控预警系统设计

大型石油、天然气、成品油,易燃易爆,储罐群区危险物质存量大,极易引起灾难性的事故发生。如何在经济高速发展过程中保证安全,是安全生产急需解决的技术难题。本文系统设计面向大型油气(危化品)储罐区安全管理工作的实际需要,兼顾罐区安全管理、实时监控预警及应急救援等多方面的工作,设计一套技术先进、运行成熟、操作简单、扩展性好、容易维护和使用方便的油品储罐区安全监控预警系统,实现大型油气储罐区安全管控一体化,确保大型油气储罐的生产安全和社会安全发展。     

Stable C and N isotope analysis elucidated the importance of zooplankton in a tropical seagrass bed of Santiago Island,Northwestern Philippines

The role of zooplankton in a tropical seagrass ecosystem was investigated in milkfish farms pollution-impacted and -unimpacted seagrass beds in Santiago Island coral reefs, Northwestern Philippines. The aim was to compare between the two sites: (1) abiotic factors and zooplankton community parameters, and (2) the trophic structure using C and N stable isotopes. Low water (98–119?mV) and sediment (–121 to ?138?mV) Oxidation Reduction Potential values indicated a reducing environment in the impacted site. Zooplankton in the impacted site showed the typical community response to eutrophication (low diversity, but high total abundance due to the dominance of the cyclopoid copepod Oithona oculata), generally few elevated δ¹⁵N values, but a significant shift towards depleted ¹³C due to the organic enrichment of fish-farm feeds. Apart from suggesting a highly complex food web with POM and zooplankton as main food sources in the unimpacted site, the Bayesian mixing model simulation generated reduced complexity in feeding interactions between basal sources, zooplankton, and fish including adults of a key fish species, Siganus fuscescens, in the impacted sites. In this study, C and N stable isotope analysis has clarified the importance of zooplankton as fish prey in a seagrass bed food web.     

Volumetric assessment of airborne fungi in two sections of a rural indoor dairy cattle shed

There is increasing concern about the exposure to fungal aerosols in occupational environments and associated respiratory allergic diseases and asthma. A large number of people work in cattle sheds around the world, pulmonary function impairments and higher frequency of respiratory symptoms have been reported in dairy farmers; however, it appears that adequate information on the fungal aerosols from the cattle sheds are largely lacking. Volumetric assessment of airborne culturable and nonculturable fungal spores was performed in two sections of a large rural indoor cattle shed of West Bengal, India for 2 consecutive years. An Andersen Two Stage Viable Sampler was used for sampling culturable fungi and a Burkard Personal Slide Sampler was used to collect the total airborne fungal spores including both the culturable and nonculturable types. A total of 31 spore types and 35 types of viable colony-forming units were recorded. Average concentration range of total fungal spores was 233-2985/m(3) and concentration of viable colony-forming units ranged between 165 and 2225 CFU/m(3). Burkard Sampler showed higher frequencies of Aspergilli/Penicilli, Cladosporium, Alternaria, and smut spores. Andersen Sampler showed the prevalence of Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus flavus and Cladosporium cladosporioides colonies. Some recorded fungi were earlier reported as allergenic, toxic, and pathogenic for occupational workers as well as cattle population. Higher concentration levels of airborne total and culturable fungal spores were recorded during the months of November through February (winter) and June through September (late summer and rainy season).     

New Zealand Farmer Narratives of the Benefits of Reduced Human Intervention During Lambing in Extensive Farming Systems

Easy-care or natural lambing pertainsto those sheep able to successfully lamb andrear at least one lamb without human assistancein a difficult environment. Such sheep may havea higher survival rate, lower lamb mortality,and require less shepherding at lambing thanother sheep breeds or strains. The farmer orshepherd account of easy-care lambing revealsseveral themes. Firstly, stock were bred tosurvive or suit local environments orconditions, particularly steep hill country inNew Zealand. This involved extensive culling ofundesirable dams, regardless of how well theymight perform in traits other than the abilityto survive and to produce live lambs atweaning. Sheep that did have problems wereoften assisted, recorded or marked and thenculled at an appropriate time; thus bothartificial (culling) and natural selection wereused. Secondly, natural selection enabled theimportant traits to be identified and they weresubsequently incorporated into artificialselection programs. Thirdly, the practice wasnecessitated by the impracticality ofsupervising lambing in difficult terrain andthe cost of skilled farm labor. Finally, it wasacknowledged that disturbance at lambingcreated problems and most importantly, theeasy-care approach reduced some of the problemstraditionally associated with lambing.Easy-care lambing systems thus aim to minimizesome of the detrimental effects associated withcarefully supervised lambing in someenvironments, by selecting sheep to suit boththat environment and modern farm management.They overcame pervasive influences our culturallegacy was exerting on the way we interact withanimals, and may have produced a system more inkeeping with the biology of the animal in anextensive environment.     

A survey on heavy metal concentrations in residential neighborhoods: The influence of secondary water supply systems

Water quality deterioration often occurs in secondary water supply systems (SWSSs), and increased heavy metal concentrations can be a serious problem. In this survey, twelve residential neighborhoods were selected to investigate the influence of SWSSs on the seasonal changes in heavy metal concentrations from input water to tank and tap water. The concentrations of nine evaluated heavy metals in all groups of water samples were found to be far below the specified standard levels in China. The concentrations of Fe, Mn, and Zn increased significantly from the input water samples to the tank and tap water samples in spring and summer (p < 0.05), especially for the water samples that had been stagnant for a long time. Negative correlations were found between most of the heavy metals and residual chlorine (Fe, Cu, Zn, and As, r = -0.186 to -0.519, p < 0.05). In particular, a high negative correlation was observed between Fe and residual chlorine (r = -0.489 to -0.519, p < 0.01) in spring and summer. Fe and Mn displayed positive correlations with turbidity (r = 0.672 and 0.328, respectively; p < 0.05). In addition, Cr and As were found to be positively associated with some nutrients (NO₃⁻, TN, and SO₄²⁻; r = 0.420-0.786, p < 0.01). The material of the storage tanks had little influence on the difference in heavy metal concentrations. Overall, this survey illustrated that SWSSs may pose a chronic threat to water quality and could provide useful information for practitioners.     

Assessing livelihood for improvement: Samanalawewa reservoir environs,Sri Lanka

This paper explores household (HH)-level livelihood dynamics and determinants since construction of the Samanalawewa Hydroelectricity Reservoir (SHER) in the Samanalawewa watershed, Sri Lanka. The research is based on data from a structured questionnaire survey of 201 randomly selected households (HHs) in upstream and downstream areas. Livelihood dynamics at two separate points in time (1988 and 2008) were assessed based on a sustainable livelihood framework (SLF). Impact of livelihood determinants on livelihood was analysed using factor and regression analysis techniques, followed by an optimisation procedure to suggest requirements in selected significant determinants to improve the livelihood of various categories of farm HH. In both upstream and downstream areas, livelihood assets, viz. physical, social and human capital, increased significantly, while access to natural and financial capital decreased significantly and slightly, respectively, during last two decades. The factor analysis extracted six factors in the upstream area and seven in the downstream area. The derived regression models show that nine variables in the upstream area and ten in the downstream area are major determinants of HH livelihood. Based on optimisation results, policy implications are discussed in relation to needed improvements in livelihood determinants to improve overall livelihood of HHs.     

美国粮仓农工的安全风险识别与防护

本文通过谷物装卸设备存在危险的实例,强调了储粮仓内农工存在淹埋及窒息风险,重点介绍了美国职业安全和健康署（OSHA）提出的标准和相关法规,以及粮仓农工的安全风险识别与防护经验,以对我国粮仓农工的安全与防护提供帮助。     

青岛华威风电场风能资源分析

根据华威风电场2008年4月1日-2009年3月31日一整年的测风仪测风资料,对风电场的风能资源各参数进行了详细地计算和分析,对风电场的风能资源进行评价,为当地的风能开发提供分析基础。