Study of the situation deduction of a domino accident caused by overpressure in LPG storage tank area

The production and storage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is gradually becoming larger and more intensive, which greatly increases the risk of the domino effect of an explosion accident in a storage tank area while improving production and management efficiency. This paper describes the construction of the domino effect scene of an explosion accident in an LPG storage tank area, the analysis of the characteristics of the LPG tank explosion shock wave and the target storage tank failure, and the creation of an ANSYS numerical model to derive the development trend and expansion law of the domino accident in the LPG storage tank area. The research showed that: 400 m³ tank T1 explosion shock waves spread to T2, T4, T5, T3, and T6, and the tank overpressures of 303 kPa, 303 kPa, 172 kPa, 81 kPa, and 61 kPa respectively. The critical values of the target storage tank failure overpressure-range threshold were 70 kPa and 60 m. After the explosion of the initial unit T1 tank, at 38 ms, the T2 and T4 storage tanks failed and exploded; at 56 ms, the T5 storage tank exploded for the third time; at 82 ms, the T3 storage tank exploded for the fourth time; and at 102 ms, the T6 storage tank exploded for the fifth time. With the increase of explosion sources, the failure overpressure of the target storage tank increased, and the interval between explosions continuously shortened, which reflected the expansion effect of the domino accident. The domino accident situation deduction in the LPG storage tank area provided a scientific basis for the safety layout, accident prevention and control, emergency rescue, and management of a chemical industry park.     

畜牧业清洁生产的生态服务价值评估及补偿模式研究——以山东省规模养猪场为例

本文运用市场价值法、有效成本法、避免成本法,以山东省为例对规模养猪场清洁生产生态服务价值进行了评估,并探讨了清洁生产生态服务价值的补偿模式。结果表明:山东省规模养猪场清洁生产生态服务总价值为140.804亿元,其价值构成为绿色产品供给价值(84.22%)>气体调节价值(10.66%)>资源化利用价值(2.23%)>水质保护价值(1.96%)>土壤保护价值(0.92%)>水源节约价值(0.01%),说明清洁生产带来的尚未被养殖主体、政府和公众重视的生态服务价值巨大,同时也说明清洁生产具有极强的正外部性。为实现清洁生产生态服务价值,构建了政府补偿、市场化补偿和社会补偿协同作用的多元化生态补偿模式,其中政府补偿模式以资金补偿、政策补偿、技术补偿和智力补偿为主,市场化补偿模式主要表现为排污权交易和生态标记,社会补偿模式以自力补偿为主、相关企业参与为辅。     

养鸡场空气微生物污染及工人呼吸暴露风险

动物养殖场是空气环境微生物污染的重要来源,然而目前关于养殖场空气中微生物污染特征的时间规律少有报道.针对以上情况,以蛋鸡场为例,采用16S rRNA基因扩增子测序分别对养殖场空气和粪便环境中细菌分布特点及呼吸暴露展开为期80余周的研究.结果表明,空气和粪便样本中16S rRNA含量范围分别在6.08×10⁵ ~4.90×10⁶ copies·m^-3和4.27×10⁸ ~1.15×10¹⁰ copies·g^-1之间.空气中细菌浓度的平均值在冬季显著高于夏季,而生物多样性则呈现相反趋势.蛋鸡场空气与粪便中的优势细菌门均为厚壁菌门（Firmicutes）.在所调查时间内,空气中前3个优势菌属的种类较为稳定,依次为乳杆菌属（Lactobacillus）、拟杆菌属（Bacteroides）和栖粪杆菌属（Faecalibacterium）,而粪便中优势菌属则随养殖时间的增加波动较大.空气和动物粪便中细菌和致病菌群落结构的相关性均不显著,但不同介质中两种目标微生物的含量均显著相关.粪便中细菌的气溶胶化指数随养殖时间的增加而呈上升趋势,而致病菌趋势相反.其中,瘤胃菌科torques属（[Ruminococcus]_torques_group）、拟杆菌属（Bacteroides）和栖粪杆菌属（Faecalibacterium）为最易发生气溶胶化的前3个致病菌属.养鸡场工人的细菌呼吸暴露具有季节性差异,其中细菌和致病菌摄入量的平均值分别为2.54×10⁷ copies·d^-1和2.87×10⁵ copies·d^-1.研究结果将为系统评估养殖场空气微生物的污染特征和潜在健康风险,对以及制定相应的职业暴露行业标准和防控措施提供科学依据.     

Using the maximum principle of impulse control for ecology-economical models

In this work we present mathematical models for population of single cohort and homogeneous animals. Investigating these mathematical models, we determine structure of optimal impulsive control which used maximum principle for optimal processes with impulse control.     

Establishment of Aqueous Film Forming Foam extinguishing agent minimum supply intensity model based on experimental method

In recent years, serious fire and explosion accident in petrochemical storage tanks have taken place frequently. Therefore, increasing the firefighting force in petrochemical parks is particularly important. The ambition of the paper is mainly studying the supply intensity of Aqueous Film Forming Foam (AFFF) extinguishing agent. Fire extinguishing agent demand calculation method that can be capable of matching fire scale is established by carrying out series of fire extinguishing experiments. 6% AFFF is chosen to carry out three groups of experiments respectively: fire extinguishing agent fluidity determination, series groups of small size simulation oil pool fire and 177 square meters of large oil pool fire extinguishing experiment. The situation of fire extinguishing on fuel surface of AFFF can be explored through experimental means under cold and hot conditions. The data obtained from experiments prove a higher conformity between covering process and covering model under the cold condition. The model can predict the cold coverage of AFFF effectively. After unifying the supply flow from each experiment, the statistics can be fitted and come to the minimum supply intensity algorithm of AFFF against the target storage tank specifications. The algorithm is used to estimate the minimum supply intensity when extinguishing full liquid surface fire. This model also can be used as reference for petrochemical fire protection.     

基于CFD的大型储油罐区池火灾数值模拟*

为研究大型储油罐区池火灾温度、热辐射强度、流速、组分等燃烧特性参数在油罐外不同区域的变化规律,以10万m3原油储罐区为研究对象,构建罐区池火灾燃烧数学模型,运用计算流体动力学（Computational Fluid Dynamics,CFD）技术进行数值模拟研究。结果表明:整个火场温度大致呈锥形分布,火焰温度最高可达1 500 K,纵向来看,底部温度较高,上部温度逐渐降低,径向来看,中心温度较高,周围温度逐渐降低;随着距罐壁以及距罐顶距离的不断增加,热辐射强度均呈现逐渐降低的趋势,最高热辐射强度为132 kW/m2;罐顶上方区域存在火焰卷吸现象,中心位置流速最大,最高可达56 m/s,罐底区域存在火焰贴壁现象;得到燃烧产物（CO和CO2）的体积分数分布,以CO体积分数为0.001作为判断依据,推断出火焰高度为120 m。研究结果可为今后此类火灾事故的防治提供理论支撑。     

云南森林生态功能区农户生态补偿支付意愿(WTP)影响因素及差异性分析

生态补偿是协调经济与资源环境和谐发展,化解生态环境与经济增长矛盾的有效手段,对推进生态文明建设意义深远。基于云南省5个州市农户调查数据,运用二元Probit模型,分析了云南森林生态功能区农户生态补偿支付意愿的关键影响因素及其差异性。研究表明:大部分农户愿意为生态补偿付费,影响其支付意愿的主要因素是性别、年龄、是否兼业、家庭人口数、非农收入比重、生态补偿重要性认知、森林经济效益是否比生态效益重要、生态环境满意度、政府是否对生态环境保护宣传、政策执行信任度以及信息获取难易程度;其中年龄、家庭农业劳动力人数和信息获取难易程度对专业户支付意愿有重要影响,而家庭人口数、非农收入比重以及获得政府补偿的情况对兼业户支付意愿有重要影响;是否兼业、非农收入比重、对生态补偿了解程度以及信息获取难易程度对传统散户支付意愿影响较大;对政策执行的信任程度和产业发展程度对种植大户支付意愿有重要影响。基于此,提出了完善政府农村就业服务职能,鼓励农户非农就业、创业;完善生态功能区环境教育体系和宣传制度建设,强化农户环保意识;强化政府职责及其政策推广、执行力度,构建综合、完善的生态补偿宣传媒介;制定并实施差异化的生态补偿措施等具体对策建议。     

利用CFSR数据开展海上风电场长年代风能资源评估

开展长年代风能资源评估可为海上风电场的可行性研究和风险评估提供依据和支撑。创新性地引入了气候预测系统再分析(CFSR)数据,以江苏响水海上风电场为例开展了长年代风能资源评估,结果表明:CFSR数据10 m高度风速与海上气象塔10 m高度风速的平均偏差为-0.2 m·s~(-1),均方根误差为1.9 m·s~(-1);CFSR数据10 m高度风速与海上气象塔90 m高度风速的相关系数范围在0.359~0.619,相比气象站的相关系数提高了40%~90%;长年代订正得到海上气象塔90 m高度近30 a的风数据,多年平均风速为6.9 m·s~(-1),标准差为0.2 m·s~(-1)(2.9%);测算出海上风电场近30年的等效满负荷小时数,多年平均值为2 423 h,标准差为112 h(4.6%);评估出25 a一遇(海上风电场的寿命期)、10 a一遇、5 a一遇的最小年平均风速分别为6.6、6.7和6.8 m·s~(-1),最小年等效满负荷小时数分别为2 227、2 280和2 329 h。利用CFSR数据开展海上风电场长年代风能资源评估在技术上是可行的。     

海南省福报农场旅游资源的开发与规划

海南省福报农场沙河旅游区以河谷山岳型自然风光为主体格架,构成了多姿多态的景观类型。景点集中而丰富,且以其幽、秀、奇、秘、特形成与海南区域整体旅游资源结构的迥异特色,具有较高的美学价值和良好的区位条件。在开发中以“福报芒果”为拳头产品,树立本区的旅游产品形象;以经济开发为导向,采取游览、购物、经贸、度假相协调的综合开发模式,从而获得经济、环境和社会的平衡发展     

模拟降雨条件下农田径流中氮的流失过程

在室内降雨模拟试验条件下,研究暴雨径流中农田氮素养分流失及施肥处理的影响。结果表明,农田暴雨径流氮养分的流失量与累积径流量成正相关;施用NH