Daily Precipitation Extremes in Iran: Decadal Anomalies and Possible Drivers

This study focuses on the empirical statistical analysis of the anomalies in daily precipitation extremes by applying the quantile perturbation method (QPM) to data from 31 Iranian weather stations during the period between 1961 and 2005. The possible causes behind the anomalies in precipitation extremes are identified by analyzing their relationship with the anomalies in eight atmospheric indices (i.e., NAO, SOI, PDO, AMO, NCP, DMI, WeMO, SSN). In terms of decadal oscillations, the country was generally wet in the 1960s and 1970s with most stations exhibiting periods of higher quantile perturbations, whereas lower quantile perturbations were dominant in the 1980s and 1990s. The highest perturbation in extreme precipitation quantiles prevails in Central Iran during the early 1980s, in which the quantiles are about 50% higher than the ones based on the full time series. The frequency of significant precipitation anomalies for winter season was greater than that for spring and autumn seasons. For the summer season, the humid region in North Iran demonstrates strong positive anomalies. The results highlight the noticeable role of large‐scale climatic factors in the anomalous behavior of precipitation extremes in Iran. The atmospheric drivers of the quantile anomalies in extreme precipitation were found to differ from one season to another.     

Health, safety, self-regulation and the older driver: It's not just a matter of age

Problem

The purpose of this research was to examine the impact of age and health on patterns of driving and self-regulation among older adults who still drive.

Method

This analysis presents the results of a nationwide survey of drivers who are 50 + (N = 3,824, 53.11% response rate), focusing on questions about the impact of their self-reported health on attitudes toward and self-regulation of driving.

Results

The data indicate that as age increases, so too does reported self-regulation of driving, increasing sharply among those ages 70 and older. The data also indicate that respondent's reported confidence in driving and their enjoyment of driving decline as they age. Health status bears a significant relationship with all three of these variables, positively related to confidence in driving skills and to enjoyment in driving, but negatively related to self-regulation reports. As self-reported health declines, respondent's report engages in greater voluntary restrictions of their driving.

Discussion

All too often, the driving decision is linked primarily to chronological age. Analysis done here indicates that age alone is not the best indicator of self-regulation and how older adults change their driving behaviors.

Summary

This research presents the results of a nationwide survey of 50+ drivers and their self-reported driving, self-regulation behaviors, and health status. Strong support was found for the argument that chronological age is not an adequate measure of self-regulating behaviors and driver safety among those 50+. In particular, it was found that a person's health status and the interaction between age and health are essential considerations in the decisions around self-regulation and driving. People tend to self-regulate more with age, but the effect becomes much more pronounced as health status declines.

Impact on industry

In the coming years, if older adults can't get to where they want to go and continue to be viable consumers in our national fabric, all industries will eventually suffer. Transportation is a key component to the nation's social contract with older individuals and their families.     

Sediment and carbon accumulation in a small tidal basin: Yuehu,Shandong Peninsula,China

A small sedimentary basin (the Yuehu lagoon), located at the eastern tip of Shandong Peninsula, China, was selected to study its filling by sediment and the vertical flux of particulate organic carbon in response to natural/anthropogenic processes. Surficial and short core sediment samples were collected and analyzed to obtain data sets of grain size, organic carbon content, deposition rates and vertical fluxes of sediment and organic carbon. The analytical results show that the lagoon is covered mainly with fine-grained sediments with high deposition rate and particulate organic carbon content being found from the central part of the mud deposit. The sediment balance of the lagoon indicates high denudation rates of the catchment basin, which may be related to soil erosion in response to farming and land use pattern changes. Furthermore, preliminary analysis of the organic carbon fluxes of the Yuehu lagoon and other embayments of the region shows that these coastal systems make an important contribution to the regional shallow sea carbon burial.     

空气污染物的时空演化及社会经济驱动因素研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

本文以2006—2015年长江三角洲城市群为研究对象,分析该地区不同部门因能源消费而产生的典型污染物排放量,然后利用LMDI模型,对空气污染进行社会经济驱动因素分析。结果表明:该地区CO_2、SO_2、PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)等空气污染物排放量均呈现先快速增长后缓慢减少的趋势,排放的峰值多出现在了2013年,而NO_x则一直保持增长的趋势。其中,电力与工业部门是空气污染物的主要排放源,但对排放量贡献呈减少趋势,生活部门与交通部门污染物排放量则逐步增长,尤其是对PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)排放量的贡献不可忽视。人口与经济增长对污染物排放量起到了正向拉动作用,经济因素的驱动作用最为明显,其效应值呈现先小幅增加后大幅下降的趋势,能源效率与能源结构有抑制作用,其对污染物排放的效应值仅次于经济因素,而能源结构变化的效应很小。     

长江流域浮游植物群落的环境驱动及生态评价

浮游植物常用于水生态健康评价,国内已有大量相关的研究开展,但多数研究涉及范围较为局限.从流域尺度开展浮游植物调查,在长江源区至入海口的干流重点区域、八大一级支流和三峡支流共布设了139个样点进行样品采集.在长江流域一共鉴定出浮游植物7门82属,其中隐藻门、蓝藻门和硅藻门为优势类群.首先对长江流域各区域的浮游植物群落组成进行分析,使用LEfSe分析各区域显著富集的物种,然后基于CCA探究了长江流域各区域浮游植物群落和环境因子之间的关系.在流域尺度上,广义线性模型显示TN和TP与浮游植物密度显著正相关,TITAN分析则揭示了环境指示种和它们对应的最适生长阈值范围.最后,分别从水生生物和水质两个方面对长江流域各区域进行评价,尽管两个方面的评价结果不一致,但基于随机森林算法综合所有指标进行评价,能够得到长江流域全面且客观的生态评价结果.     

Investigating lane change behaviors and difficulties for senior drivers using naturalistic driving data

Introduction: Lane changes can be a complicated maneuver occurring a dynamic environment requiring the integration of many streams of information. Older drivers may struggle with lane changes which may elevate crash risk. Methods: Real-world lane change behaviors were examined using the Second Strategic Highway Research Program Naturalistic Driving Study database. A total of 393 lane changes were observed for two age groups: middle-aged (30–49), and older (70+) drivers. Results: Older drivers were highly likely to fail to execute an over-the-shoulder glance prior to initiation of a lane change (in 98% of left lane changes and 92% for right lane changes). Older drivers also showed higher rates of OTS glance errors at any point during the lane change in 95% of left lane changes and 86% of right-lane changes. Additionally, older drivers frequently failed to activate the turn signal prior to lane change initiation (60% of lane changes for right changes and 59% for left lane changes). Of the older drivers that made side mirror glances, many occurred after the initiation of the maneuver (46% of left lane changes and 58% of right lane changes) suggesting glances were occurring while changing lanes. Conclusions: Results for older drivers showed that many key glances (particularly side mirror checks) and turn signal actuations observed in the current study occurred after the initiation of the lane change, ostensibly when this action may be too late to gather relevant information and avoid a conflict. Practical Applications: Knowledge of glance patterns during lane changes for older drivers can help older drivers maintain travel mobility as they age. Either through training to reinforce OTS and side mirror glances, or supplemental devices like convex mirrors or oversized rearview mirrors, older drivers can reduce high-risk lane change maneuvers and help older drivers to maintain their mobility and independence longer.     

Young drivers' determinants of driving under the influence of cannabis: Findings from the Youth Cannabis and Driving Survey (YouCanDS)

Introduction: Driving under the influence of cannabis (DUIC) is proven to increase the risk of collisions and is most common among young drivers (ages 16 to 24). However, little is known about the specific determinants of DUIC behavior among youth, which limits the capacity to develop evidence-based prevention and intervention efforts. This study developed and evaluated a youth DUIC questionnaire, which was used to establish the DUIC determinants of young drivers. Method: The questionnaire was based on the theoretical framework of general deterrence and general prevention. Data obtained included: demographics, past cannabis use and DUIC experiences, DUIC intention, experiences riding as a passenger with someone DUIC, knowledge and credibility of the law, attitudes towards DUIC, and social controls. The resulting questionnaire was validated for a sample of 426 young drivers in the province of Ontario, Canada. An ordinal regression was conducted to examine the relationships between questionnaire items and DUIC intention. Results: The questionnaire displayed good construct validity and internal consistency across four out of five domains (KMO and Cronbach α values ≥ 0.70). Of the 426 respondents (52.6% female), 356 (83.6%) reported previous cannabis use, with 296 (69.5%) doing so in the past year, and 142 (33.3%) reporting DUIC. Furthermore, 179 (42%) study participants indicated at least a slight chance of DUIC in the next year. The regression analysis identified six variables predictive of DUIC intention: past DUIC incidence, perceived percent of those convicted that receive the penalty, moral awareness, perceived dangerousness, minor accident risk, and vicarious punishment avoidance. Conclusions: Preventive efforts should emphasize these determinants when designing targeted strategies and interventions. Practical Applications: These efforts should focus on educating the dangers and risk of a vehicle collision, that law enforcement has the capacity to apprehend and appropriately punish individuals DUIC, and that DUIC is wrong and socially unacceptable.     

Combinations of factors contribute to young driver crashes

Introduction: Motor-vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death in adolescence and young adults. A multitude of factors, including skill level, inexperience, and risk taking behaviors are associated with young drivers’ crashes. This research investigated whether combinations of factors underlie crashes involving young drivers. Method: A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted on population-wide one- and two-car crashes in Great Britain during years 2005–2012 per driver age (17–20, 21–29, 30–39, 40–49) and sex. Reporting officers provided their assessment of the factors contributing to crashes. Principal components analysis was conducted to identify combinations of factors underlying young drivers’ crashes. Factor combinations, including challenging driving conditions, risk taking behaviors, and inexperience were implicated in young drivers’ crashes. Results: Combinations of factors reveal new insights into underlying causes of crashes involving young drivers. One combination revealed that slippery roads due to poor weather pose greater risk to young drivers who are inexperienced and likely to exceed the appropriate speed. The findings motivate new policy recommendations, such as educating young drivers about the importance of adjusting their speed to the road conditions.     

Adolescent, and their parents, attitudes towards graduated driver licensing and subsequent risky driving and crashes in young adulthood

Problem

Although Graduated Driver Licensing Systems (GDLS) have helped reduce young driver crash rates, they remain significantly over-represented in crash statistics. To be effective GDLS rely heavily on support for the legislation by those directly involved; parents to enforce the restrictions and adolescents to comply. There is some evidence that practices regarding GDLS restrictions influence adolescent driving outcomes in the early stage of licensure. However there has been no examination undertaken on the influence of parent and adolescent attitudes toward GDLS on adolescents’ driving behavior and crash experiences as they move into their young adult years. The aim of this research was to examine these relationships.

Method

This investigation was based on a longitudinal study of a birth cohort, and uses data collected when the cohort members were aged 15, 18, and 21 years. At age 15 both adolescent and their parent attitudes toward GDLS were measured. At age 18 adolescent GDLS attitudes were measured again. The association between these measures and self-reported risky driving behavior and crash involvement at age 21 were examined.

Results

Negative attitudes toward the learner supervisor restriction for males, and negative attitudes toward a GDLS for females were strongly associated with risky driving and crash involvement as young adults.

Impact on industry

Targeting interventions to improve adolescents and parents understanding of the reasons for graduated licensing and the specific restrictions may improve attitudes and views and thereby contribute to a reduction in risky driving behaviors and crash risk among young adults.