轮班制度对于地铁司机疲劳的影响

立足于轮班工作模式,阐述轮班制度对司机疲劳产生与积累的影响。介绍疲劳指数方法和池田公式的理论基础及模型构架,基于北京地铁13号线现行轮班表,分别应用上述两种研究方法进行地铁轮班司机疲劳程度的分析。两种方法的评估结果显著相关,均说明13号线现行轮班表的制定会导致司机疲劳的产生,存在安全运营风险。应用上述方法可实现对司机疲劳程度的非接触式测量,避免对司机驾驶作业的干扰,同时为地铁运营公司的安全管理人员制定合理的轮班方案,建立全面、量化的动态管理措施,提高行车安全保障提供了科学依据。     

Graduated Driver Licensing Research, 2007-Present: A Review and Commentary

The evolution of graduated licensing systems in the past 25 years has resulted in dramatic growth in research on this topic. The most recent summary reports have covered the period up to 2007. In the present article more recent and ongoing research is categorized, summarized, and discussed.     

巢湖2016年蓝藻水华时空分布及环境驱动力分析

针对近年来巢湖蓝藻水华暴发频繁,基于中分辨率成像光谱仪（moderate-resolution imaging spectrum-radiometer,MODIS）多光谱遥感数据,采用浮游藻类指数（floating algae index,FAI）和藻华像元生长算法（algae pixel-growing algorithm,APA）提取了巢湖蓝藻水华覆盖面积,在分析2016年巢湖蓝藻水华时空分布规律基础上,结合巢湖水质、气象数据,讨论了藻华暴发的主要环境驱动力.结果表明,2016年巢湖藻华暴发季节与往年一致（5~11月）,但藻华首次暴发时间推迟到5月,持续时间缩短至204 d,平均藻华面积85.53 km².其环境驱动力研究发现,尽管巢湖主要水质指标呈现下降趋势,但总氮、总磷浓度依然分别超过V类和IV类水质标准;与往年相比,2016年春季风速偏大（△W=0.1 m·s^-1）、降水偏多（△P=0.8 mm）与日照时数偏低（△S=-1.3 h）是巢湖藻华面积减少、起始暴发时间推迟的主要原因;藻华持续期内,降水成为影响藻华面积月际变化的主要影响因素,当日平均风速不仅与当天藻华面积存在较显著的负相关（P<0.05）,当风速较大时对后续几日的藻华面积产生一定的滞后影响.这些研究结果有助于了解巢湖蓝藻水华情况,为应对巢湖藻华暴发与气候变化提供理论依据.     

Graduated driver licensing in the United States: evaluation results from the early programs

BACKGROUND: Seventeen states enacted graduated driver licensing (GDL) programs that were implemented from 1996 through 1999 and for which evaluations are of interest. METHODS: We received evaluation results reported for six states for which data were available. Summarizing results is difficult in other than the most global terms because of differences in pre-GDL programs, differences in GDL programs, and differences in evaluation methodology. RESULTS: All states identified some crash reduction among teen drivers following GDL implementation. This positive effect was observed across different geographic regions, and with different GDL programs. Simple counts are down-fewer teens are experiencing crashes and becoming injured. After calculating crash rates to adjust for changes over time in populations or licensed drivers, reductions generally were still found. Population-adjusted risks of injury/fatal crash involvement of 16-year-old drivers in Florida and Michigan were reduced by 11% and 24%, respectively. Population-adjusted risks of any crash involvement of 16-year-old drivers in Michigan and North Carolina were reduced by 25% and 27%, respectively. Reductions in night (restricted hours) crash risk were impressive in Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina. A comparison state design was only possible in the Florida evaluation, and results showed greater crash reductions under GDL. Change-point analyses of Michigan's crash data trends over time provided additional support of GDL's effectiveness in reducing crashes. DISCUSSION: Taken as a whole, and including the preliminary findings from California, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, these reports demonstrate the early effectiveness of GDL in reducing the crash risk of teen drivers. The impact of these studies and others to come will guide future research, practice, and policy.     

Enhancing the effectiveness of graduated driver licensing legislation

PROBLEM: Many states have enacted graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems in an effort to reduce the very high crash rates of young beginning drivers. This article addresses how to achieve the maximum benefit from GDL by ensuring compliance with protective restrictions. ENHANCING GDL THROUGH SYSTEM STRUCTURE: The major crash reductions due to GDL systems result from the protective restrictions during the initial two levels, which isolate novice drivers from the highest risk driving situations. Accordingly, GDL systems should include protective restrictions that adequately control the greatest dangers facing young drivers: multiple teen passengers and night driving before midnight. ENCOURAGING COMPLIANCE THROUGH SYSTEM STRUCTURE: Including protective restrictions that are supported by parents and teens will encourage compliance. Furthermore, linking a teen's advancement through GDL to demonstrated responsible driving will likely encourage compliance more than threatening punishment for violations. ENCOURAGING COMPLIANCE THROUGH ENFORCEMENT: Parents are in a prime position to enforce most GDL restrictions, but there is some evidence they do not enforce those restrictions that they consider too extreme. Little is currently known about the involvement of law enforcement in GDL systems, but there is potential for high visibility law enforcement activities to encourage compliance with restrictions. IMPACT ON RESEARCH, PRACTICE, AND POLICY: There is a need for better designed GDL systems in many states; more research is needed to examine compliance with restrictions and to evaluate enforcement efforts by parents and law enforcement.     

How well do parents manage young driver crash risks?

Motor vehicle crashes are extremely high among young drivers during at least the first year of licensure. Crash risks decline with increased experience, but the more newly licensed teenagers drive, the greater their risk exposure. Hence, the dilemma facing policy makers and parents is how to provide young drivers with driving experience without unduly increasing their crash risk. Graduated driver licensing policies serve to delay licensure and then limit exposure to the highest risk conditions after licensure, allowing young drivers to gain experience only under less risky driving conditions. A similar strategy is needed to guide parents. Parents do not appear to appreciate just how risky driving is for novice drivers and tend to exert less control over their teenage children's driving than might be expected. Recent research has demonstrated that simple motivational strategies can persuade parents to adopt driving agreements and impose greater restrictions on early teen driving.     

Evaluating the impact of passengers on the safety of older drivers

PROBLEM: This study involved a quasi-induced exposure analysis of 4 years of crashes involving older drivers in the state of Kentucky. METHOD: Single- and multivehicle crashes were disaggregated according to the number of passengers: (a) no passenger, (b) one passenger, and (c) two or more passengers. RESULTS: Overall, the presence of two or more passengers was found to negatively impact the probability that drivers 75 years of age or older were at fault in crashes. Several potential factors were studied for interactive effects with passengers: vehicle occupant gender mix, time of the day, road curvature, grade, and number of lanes. The negative impact of passengers increased for some geometric road conditions. However, older drivers were found to be safer at night when carrying two or more passengers. The presence or absence of passengers was not found to affect the 65- to 74-year-old driver group. Groups of male vehicle occupants with a 75+ male driver were found to have high single-vehicle crash rates. IMPACT: These results are among the first to directly consider the effect of passengers on the crash-causing propensity of older drivers and the findings suggest more work is warranted to consider causes for the crash rate differences.     

Using a driving simulator to identify older drivers at inflated risk of motor vehicle crashes

PROBLEM: To develop appropriate assessment criteria to measure the performance of older drivers using an interactive PC-based driving simulator, and to determine which measures were associated with the occurrence of motor-vehicle crash. METHOD: One hundred and twenty-nine older drivers residing in a metropolitan city volunteered to participate in this retrospective cohort study. Using the driving simulator, appropriate driving tasks were devised to test the older drivers, whose performances were assessed by 10 reliable assessment criteria. Logistic regression analysis was then undertaken to determine those criteria that influence the self-reported crash outcome. RESULTS: As expected, driving skill of older drivers was found to decline with age. Over 60% of the sample participants reported having at least one motor-vehicle crash during the past year. Adjusting for age in a logistic regression analysis, the cognitive abilities associated with the crash occurrence were working memory, decision making under pressure of time, and confidence in driving at high speed. SUMMARY: The findings of this retrospective study indicated those individuals at inflated risk of vehicle crashes could be identified using the PC-based interactive driving simulator. Prospective studies need to be undertaken to determine whether the driving simulator can predict future crash events. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This study demonstrated an economical driving simulator approach to screen out problematic or unsafe older drivers before a more detailed but expensive road test is considered.     

What vehicle features are considered important when buying an automobile? An examination of driver preferences by age and gender

Introduction

Certain vehicle features can help drivers avoid collisions and/or protect occupants in the event of a crash, and therefore, might play an important role when deciding which vehicle to purchase. The objective of this study was to examine the importance attributed to key vehicle features (including safety) that drivers consider when buying a car and its association with age and gender.

Methods

A sample of 2,002 Canadian drivers aged 18 years and older completed a survey that asked them to rank the importance of eight vehicle features if they were to purchase a vehicle (storage, mileage, safety, price, comfort, performance, design, and reliability). ANOVA tests were performed to: (a) determine if there were differences in the level of importance between features and; (b) examine the effect of age and gender on the importance attributed to these features.

Results

Of the features examined, safety and reliability were the most highly rated in terms of importance, whereas design and performance had the lowest rating. Differences in safety and performance across age groups were dependent on gender. This effect was most evident in the youngest and oldest age groups.

Conclusions

Safety and reliability were considered the most important features. Age and gender play a significant role in explaining the importance of certain features.

Impact on Industry

Targeted efforts for translating safety-related information to the youngest and oldest consumers should be emphasized due to their high collision, injury, and fatality rates.     

The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01381-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.