Projecting landscape changes in southern Chile: Simulation of human and natural processes driving land transformation

We describe a simulation model representing the most important human and natural factors driving land use and cover changes (LUCC) in southern Chile. We evaluate the model by examining its ability to simulate LUCC observed over the past three decades, conduct a sensitivity analysis of simulated trends to changes in important model parameters, and use the model to project likely landscape transformations over the next decade under “as usual,” “pessimistic,” and four “optimistic” scenarios. The model consists of five submodels representing LUCC on two distinct soil formations (volcanic ash and gleysols) and four major land use categories: native forest, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land. Land use and cover sub-categories include old growth forests, secondary forests, and low and flooded shrubland. The model simulated well general historic trends in forest cover, agricultural land, shrubland, and urban land: from a forest-dominated landscape in 1976 to a landscape dominated by shrubland and agricultural land by 2007. Forest loss, forest degradation by logging and clearing for agriculture were the most important direct drivers of LUCC: forest logging and clearing were most important from 1976 to 1985, whereas after 1985 logging for firewood, driven by population growth, was most important. Sensitivity analysis indicated that model projections of general trends in the main land use and cover categories were not overly sensitive to changes in important model parameters, although further study is necessary to improve our estimates of the proportion of pasture requirements supplied by clearing low shrubland. Projections of LUCC suggested that a reduced amount of secondary forest would be left by 2017 if no actions are taken to reduce forest loss (“as usual”). Increasing population (“pessimistic scenario”) resulted in similar trajectories than those predicted by the as usual scenario, whereas reducing logging for firewood and increasing forest recruitment from shrubland could reduce loss of native forest by nearly one-third (“optimistic scenarios”). Surprisingly, shrubland exhibited the most complex and influential dynamics in all scenarios, being the immediate outcome of forest loss and the main long-term source of land for agriculture, urban expansion, and forest recovery. Few studies in Chile, or elsewhere, have considered the importance of this intermediate successional stage. Of the scenarios simulated, financial incentives targeted toward channeling shrubland into regenerated forest seemed most promising, although obstacles to such a management strategy exist.     

Learning to Drive: Learners’ Self-Reported Cognitive Failure Level Predicts Driving Instructor’s Observation Rating of Driving Performance

Objectives. Evidence increases that cognitive failure may be used to screen for drivers at risk. Until now, most studies have relied on driving learners. This exploratory pilot study examines self-report of cognitive failure in driving beginners and error during real driving as observed by driving instructors. Methods. Forty-two driving learners of 14 driving instructors filled out a work-related cognitive failure questionnaire. Driving instructors observed driving errors during the next driving lesson. In multiple linear regression analysis, driving errors were regressed on cognitive failure with the number of driving lessons as an estimator of driving experience controlled. Results. Higher cognitive failure predicted more driving errors(p < .01) when age, gender and driving experience were controlled in analysis. Conclusions. Cognitive failure was significantly associated with observed driving errors. Systematic research on cognitive failure in driving beginners is recommended.     

Biogeochemistry of Chinese estuarine and coastal waters: nutrients, trace metals and biomarkers

The dissolved and particulate trace metals in large and middle-sized Chinese rivers remain comparable with other less-disturbed world systems. Levels of nutrients in Chinese rivers are high due to erosion over the drainage area and the application of chemical fertilizers, which induces an N/P ratio up to 100–1,000. The concentrations of organic pollutants in Chinese rivers are ranked at the lower end of those of world systems; however, pollution has been identified in coastal waters from north to south of the country. In estuarine and coastal waters, dissolved trace metals illustrate a feature of remobilization, while non-conservative distribution is observed, with exceptions for iron and aluminum. Particulate trace metals demonstrate a fairly stable distribution along the salinity gradient, when the absolute concentration is normalized to reference materials. In high-turbidity estuaries, seaward nutrient flux can be increased by a factor of 5–10. Finally, the N/P ratio approaches 10–20 at the interior of the East China Sea, indicating that in coastal regions photosynthesis changes from P to N and Si limitations. Electronic Publication     

Perceived stress,mental health,organizational factors,and self-reported risky driving behaviors among truck drivers circulating in France

Introduction: The growth of the European market for road-freight transport has recently led to important changes. The growing number of foreign pavilion drivers transiting in France, which plays a bridging role among European countries, has influenced the lives of truck drivers by increasing competition, pressure on day-to-day activities, and constraints related to delivery deadlines. Adding this new pressure to those inherent in the road-freight transport sector has raised concerns, especially ones linked to levels of perceived stress by truck drivers. Method: With safety concerns in mind, we devised a questionnaire aimed at understanding how French truck drivers and non-French truck drivers, passing through four highway rest areas in France perceive stress, organizational factors, mental health, and risky driving behaviors. A sample of 515 truck drivers took part in the survey (260 French nationals), 97.9% of whom were male. Results: The results of a structural equation model indicated that perceived stress can increase self-reported risky driving behaviors among truck drivers. Furthermore, organizational factors and mental health were closely linked to perceived stress. Finally, some differences were found between French and non-French truck drivers with respect to mind-wandering and mental health, and to perceive driving difficulties to overcome and driving skills. Practical Applications: Several recommendations based on the findings are provided to policymakers and organizations.     

Recent developments in young driver education, training and licensing in Australia

Australian young driver education and training approaches have differed from the mandatory school-based programs found internationally; generally comprising voluntary programs conducted outside of licensing. This paper reports on recent developments pertaining to the pre-learner, learner, and provisional license stages. Given its important context, state-based graduated driver licensing systems are also reviewed. There has been a shift toward starting driver education younger (pre-learner), greater involvement of parents, and more school-based programs; many now conducted by licensing authorities. The majority of initiatives are yet to be evaluated, particularly relative to crash outcomes; however, some studies suggest other positive outcomes, including increased supervised practice and delayed licensure. Furthermore, the federal government is proceeding with plans for a national license-based program. Several jurisdictions have also announced the introduction of passenger and nighttime restrictions on provisional licenses. Together these initiatives offer promise of reductions in young driver-related fatalities and injuries in the very near future.     

Technology and teen drivers

The rapid evolution of computing, communication, and sensor technology is likely to affect young drivers more than others. The distraction potential of infotainment technology stresses the same vulnerabilities that already lead young drivers to crash more frequently than other drivers. Cell phones, text messaging, MP3 players, and other nomadic devices all present a threat because young drivers may lack the spare attentional capacity for vehicle control and the ability to anticipate and manage hazards. Moreover, young drivers are likely to be the first and most aggressive users of new technology. Fortunately, emerging technology can also support safe driving. Electronic stability control, collision avoidance systems, intelligent speed adaptation, and vehicle tracking systems can all help mitigate the threats to young drivers. However, technology alone is unlikely to make young drivers safer. One promising approach to tailoring technology to teen drivers is to extend proven methods for enhancing young driver safety. The success of graduated drivers license programs (GDL) and the impressive safety benefit of supervised driving suggest ways of tailoring technology to the needs of young drivers. To anticipate the effects of technology on teen driving it may be useful to draw an analogy between the effects of passengers and the effects of technology. Technology can act as a teen passenger and undermine safety or it can act as an adult passenger and enhance safety. Impact on industry: Rapidly developing technology may have particularly large effects on teen drivers. To maximize the positive effects and minimize the negative effects will require a broad range of industries to work together. Ideally, vehicle manufacturers would work with infotainment providers, insurance companies, and policy makers to craft new technologies so that they accommodate the needs of young drivers. Without such collaboration young drivers will face even greater challenges to their safety as new technologies emerge.     

Graduated driver licensing: review of evaluation results since 2002

Unintentional injury from motor-vehicle crashes is the number one cause of death among teenagers in the United States. Increasingly, jurisdictions have adopted three-stage graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems for young novice drivers. Since a previous review of U.S. GDL evaluation results, many more U.S. states and Canadian provinces have implemented GDL and/or had enough time pass that additional evaluation results are now available. Twenty-one studies of GDL within 14 individual jurisdictions, and six studies of GDL in the U.S. nationwide, were collected, reviewed, and summarized. Positive results (usually crash reductions) of varying degrees were reported from nearly all the studies. Given differences in approaches, study goals, methods, and analyses, the results are surprisingly consistent. Overall, GDL programs have reduced the youngest drivers' crash risk by roughly 20 to 40%. Research on teen driving and comprehensive GDL enhancements could further reduce teen drivers' motor-vehicle crashes, injuries, and fatalities. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Policy-makers, as well as the motor vehicle, insurance, and other industries have been involved in teen driving safety and could enhance and coordinate their roles.     

California's graduated driver license law: Effect on teenage drivers' deaths through 2005

PROBLEM: While many researchers believe Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) laws save lives by imposing restrictions and delayed licensure on drivers under age 18, longer term effects on older teenagers have not been studied. METHOD: The effects of California's strict GDL law on deaths of drivers ages 16-19 were analyzed for 1995-2005 using Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series analysis of Fatality Analysis Reporting System mortality data. RESULTS: The two methods yielded similar results. IRR analysis found California 16-year-old drivers subject to the GDL experienced a 15% fatality decline (95% CI, 0.70-0.99), while 18 year-old drivers experienced a 15% increase (95% CI, 1.02-1.27). ARIMA analysis found 16 year-old drivers experienced a near-significant 20% fatality decline (p=0.07), while 18 year-olds experienced a 24% increase (p=0.01). Unlicensed teenage drivers and older teen drivers driving alone and transporting teenage passengers suffered significant fatality increases. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION: California's GDL may negatively affect older teenagers and other driver subpopulations and merits reevaluation.     

Impairment due to alcohol,tetrahydrocannabinol, and benzodiazepines in impaired drivers compared to experimental studies

Objective: In some countries, per se laws for other drugs than alcohol are used to judge drunk and drugged drivers. These blood concentration limits are often derived from experimental studies on traffic relevant behavior of healthy volunteers. Knowledge about how results from experimental studies could be transferred to a real-life setting is missing. The aim of this study was to compare impairment seen in experimental studies to the impairment seen at equivalent concentrations in apprehended drunk and drugged drivers.

Methods: Results from previously performed meta-analyses of experimental studies regarding impairment from alcohol, tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), and benzodiazepines were compared to impairment in apprehended drunk and drugged drivers as judged by a clinical test of impairment. Both experimental studies and real-life cases were divided into 4 groups according to increasing blood drug concentration intervals. The percentage of impaired test results in experimental studies was compared to the percentage of impaired subjects among drivers within the same blood drug concentration window.

Results: For ethanol, the percentage of impaired drivers (n = 1,223) increased from 59% in the lowest drug concentration group to 95% in the highest drug concentration group, compared to 7 and 72% in the respective groups in experimental studies. For THC, the percentage of impaired drivers (n = 950) increased from 42 to 58%, the corresponding numbers being 11 and 42% for experimental studies. For benzodiazepines, the percentage of impaired drivers (n = 245) increased from 46 to 76%, the corresponding numbers being 16 and 60% for experimental studies. The increased odds ratio for impairment between 2 concentration groups was comparable for experimental studies and impaired drivers.

Conclusions: Fewer test results indicated impairment in experimental studies compared to impaired drivers in real life when influenced by similar blood concentrations of either ethanol, THC, or benzodiazepines. In addition, a comparable relationship between drug concentration and impairment was seen for both experimental studies and real-life cases.

We believe that the present study strengthens the background for using experimental studies to establish fixed concentration limits for drunk and drugged drivers, but experimental studies in an impaired driver population could further expand our knowledge.     

Comments on and implications of a steady-state in coastal marine ecosystems

Coastal ecosystems can be thought of as being established by a number of physico-geochemical drivers, e.g. geochemistry and bathymetry of the basins, climate, tidal and freshwater flows, natural and anthropogenic inputs of nutrients and toxins, all of which exert an influence on the resulting communities of organisms. Depending on the interactions among the major drivers, ecosystems may occur on both large and small scales and be basin-wide or within basins. For individual and separate ecosystems to exist with some permanence in time, e.g. reach a steady-state, they also have to be ‘defended’. Defences are mechanisms that counter changes to maintain the status quo. We argue, and present evidence to support the notion, that the defence mechanisms are inextricably tied to primary production and the biogeochemical cycling of organic matter and provide buffers that mitigate potentially adverse impacts by trace toxins. Colloid pumping, production of complexing ligands and sulfide formation are some of the mechanisms that control trace substances. Current methods for assessing ecosystems do not address the issue of steady-state, nor do they take account of defence activities, e.g. buffering. Therefore, they cannot assess the ‘robustness’ of ecosystems or their ability to resist change, for good or bad. Also, defence mechanisms may, for a time, mask future potentially serious impacts, suggesting that monitoring efforts with limited budgets should consider the measurement of the inputs into ecosystems as well as the immediate or short-term result of the inputs.