北京山区泥石流灾害保险的风险评判方法研究

泥石流是北京山区主要的自然灾害,在1989-1999年期间,泥石流灾害造成的经济损失高达3.09亿元.对泥石流灾害保险风险的评判是首先按北京山区各区县的泥石流危险度分区划分风险区,然后对各风险区进行灾害危险性和灾害易损性评判.在危险性评判中,按各风险区的泥石流危险度等级赋予危险度评判指标值.在易损性评判中,选择国内生产总值、固定资产、人口密度和人口自然增长率等4个因素作为评判指标,并分为两个层次进行评判.第一层次是经济易损性与社会易损性评判,第二层次是泥石流灾害易损性评判.最后用泥石流灾害保险风险分析数学模型,计算出各风险区的泥石流灾害保险风险度,并由此绘制了北京山区泥石流灾害保险风险区划图.     

Effects of flow regimes altered by dams on survival, population declines, and range-wide losses of California river-breeding frogs

Widespread alteration of natural hydrologic patterns by large dams combined with peak demands for power and water delivery during summer months have resulted in frequent aseasonal flow pulses in rivers of western North America. Native species in these ecosystems have evolved with predictable annual flood-drought cycles; thus, their likelihood of persistence may decrease in response to disruption of the seasonal synchrony between stable low-flow conditions and reproduction. We evaluated whether altered flow regimes affected 2 native frogs in California and Oregon (U.S.A.) at 4 spatial and temporal extents. We examined changes in species distribution over approximately 50 years, current population density in 11 regulated and 16 unregulated rivers, temporal trends in abundance among populations occupying rivers with different hydrologic histories, and within-year patterns of survival relative to seasonal hydrology. The foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii), which breeds only in flowing water, is more likely to be absent downstream of large dams than in free-flowing rivers, and breeding populations are on average 5 times smaller in regulated rivers than in unregulated rivers. Time series data (range = 8 - 19 years) from 5 populations of yellow-legged frogs and 2 populations of California red-legged frogs (R. draytonii) across a gradient of natural to highly artificial timing and magnitude of flooding indicate that variability of flows in spring and summer is strongly correlated with high mortality of early life stages and subsequent decreases in densities of adult females. Flow management that better mimics natural flow timing is likely to promote persistence of these species and others with similar phenology.     

Use of linkage mapping and centrality analysis across habitat gradients to conserve connectivity of gray wolf populations in western North America

Centrality metrics evaluate paths between all possible pairwise combinations of sites on a landscape to rank the contribution of each site to facilitating ecological flows across the network of sites. Computational advances now allow application of centrality metrics to landscapes represented as continuous gradients of habitat quality. This avoids the binary classification of landscapes into patch and matrix required by patch-based graph analyses of connectivity. It also avoids the focus on delineating paths between individual pairs of core areas characteristic of most corridor- or linkage-mapping methods of connectivity analysis. Conservation of regional habitat connectivity has the potential to facilitate recovery of the gray wolf (Canis lupus), a species currently recolonizing portions of its historic range in the western United States. We applied 3 contrasting linkage-mapping methods (shortest path, current flow, and minimum-cost-maximum-flow) to spatial data representing wolf habitat to analyze connectivity between wolf populations in central Idaho and Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming). We then applied 3 analogous betweenness centrality metrics to analyze connectivity of wolf habitat throughout the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada to determine where it might be possible to facilitate range expansion and interpopulation dispersal. We developed software to facilitate application of centrality metrics. Shortest-path betweenness centrality identified a minimal network of linkages analogous to those identified by least-cost-path corridor mapping. Current flow and minimum-cost-maximum-flow betweenness centrality identified diffuse networks that included alternative linkages, which will allow greater flexibility in planning. Minimum-cost-maximum-flow betweenness centrality, by integrating both land cost and habitat capacity, allows connectivity to be considered within planning processes that seek to maximize species protection at minimum cost. Centrality analysis is relevant to conservation and landscape genetics at a range of spatial extents, but it may be most broadly applicable within single- and multispecies planning efforts to conserve regional habitat connectivity.     

重金属离子胁迫对赤潮微藻的急性毒性

重金属污染和赤潮都是较为突出的海洋环境问题,为给相关研究提供基础试验数据,在实验室条件下研究了Cu2+、Cd2+、Zn2+对米氏凯伦藻和微小原甲藻的急性毒性效应. 通过2种藻的EC₅₀(半数抑制浓度)比较了其敏感性差异,分析了不同浓度重金属胁迫对微藻的影响;同时,利用TEM (transmission electronic microscopy,透射电镜技术)和FCM (flow cytometry,流式细胞术)研究了重金属Cu2+的急性毒性胁迫在亚细胞水平上对米氏凯伦藻的损伤. 其中,Cu2+、Cd2+、Zn2+对微小原甲藻的48 h EC₅₀和96 h EC₅₀分别为0.514和0.276 mg/L、0.835和1.215 mg/L及4.376和7.976 mg/L;对米氏凯伦藻的48 h EC₅₀和96 h EC₅₀分别为1.881和1.881 mg/L、5.405和6.268 mg/L及13.134 和18.732 mg/L. 结果表明:2种微藻的种群相对增长率随着胁迫浓度的增加而下降,3种重金属离子的毒性表现出Cu2+>Cd2+>Zn2+的趋势,微小原甲藻对重金属胁迫更敏感;Cu2+胁迫可使米氏凯伦藻细胞体积增大,内容物复杂程度增高,但叶绿素a的MFI(mean fluorescence intensity,平均荧光强度)的变化不明显;Cu2+胁迫对藻膜结构的损伤较明显,但对线粒体及叶绿体的结构影响不明显.      

亚微涡旋的混凝作用研究

以粒子图像速度场仪(PIV)测得了Taylor-Couette反应器旋转内筒和固定外筒间的环隙流场图像.所得图像表明环隙间存在亚微尺度的涡旋.同时实验研究了在Taylor-Couette反应器环隙间不同涡旋形态下聚合氯化铝(PAC)对高岭土悬浊液的混凝效能.结果表明,在波涡流(WVF)形态范围内混凝效能达到了最大(50%以上),这可归因于涡的闭合特性及其随时间的膨胀和收缩.但在波涡流形态范围以外得到的混凝效能相对较低,可归因于相互连通的非闭合涡特性.     

太子河流域水库建设对河流水文情势的影响

水库建设所导致的河流水文情势变化是造成河流生态系统退化的重要原因之一.在河流水文指标生态学意义分析的基础上,建立了反映基流量、断流、高流量及涨退水率等特征的指标体系,提出了各类指标的计算方法.利用太子河53 a的日流量数据,计算并分析了水库建设前后水文指标的变异,反映水库建设对河流水文情势乃至生态系统的影响.结果表明:①太子河流域水库建设改变了河流的基流过程,减少了汛期基流,增加了汛前基流;②增加了辽阳河段断流的频率和历时;③减少了汛期洪水的发生次数,增加了汛后中小型脉冲流频率和历时.太子河水库建设导致了显著的水文变化,具有负面生态效应.      

基于GA-ELM浆体管道输送临界流速预测模型研究

针对浆体管道输送临界流速预测难度大、精确度低等技术难题,提出了基于极限学习机(ELM)的临界流速预测模型,用训练集对模型进行训练,以验证集预测值的均方误差作为适应度函数,利用遗传算法(GA)对ELM模型参数进行优化,应用优化得到的ELM模型对预测集进行预测。以某矿山为例,模型参数优化结果如下:隐含层节点数L为400,输入权值ai、偏置向量bi最优组合下预测结果适应度为0.0201。采用优化的ELM模型对预测集进行预测,预测结果的最大相对误差x=3.96%,平均相对误差y=1.58%,对比BP神经网络(x=12.95%)和SVM模型(x=3.19%),表明ELM模型更加精确、高效。     

气固两相流下球阀磨损特性研究

旋塞球阀是钻柱内防喷系统中的关键设备,在气固两相流下球阀易受磨损而失效,并造成严重的井喷事故。为此,将计算流体动力学理论与冲蚀磨损理论相结合,运用FLUENT软件对球阀壁面在气固两相流下的磨损分布情况进行研究,并进一步分析了球阀结构参数对于球阀壁面磨损的影响规律。结果表明:当气固两相流流经球阀时,固体颗粒会与气流分离,并在壁面上产生三处磨损集中区;随着球阀开度的减小,球阀壁面磨损量会急剧增大,且阀球内通道壁面上的磨损集中区由块状逐步转化为带状,而球阀出口处的磨损集中区则会逐渐向下移动;球阀流道直径的减小也会使得壁面磨损量增加,但磨损集中区的分布基本不变。研究结果可为进一步优化球阀流道结构以减轻其壁面磨损提供理论依据。     

Nitrogen budget and its environmental loading in an urban ecosystem with the rapid urbanisation of China

A detailed nitrogen (N) budget has been developed for an urban ecosystem based on the method of material flow analysis. How increased human activity and urbanisation influences N cycling have also been analysed. Total N input and output in the urban ecosystem of Zhengzhou City (ZUE) was calculated at 304.8?Gg was 275.3?Gg year^?1, resulting in an N accumulation of 29.5?Gg year^?1. Industry and human life activities, which respectively accounted for 43.8% and 34.2% of total N inputs and 52.6% and 29.1% of total N outputs, were the core of N flow in the urban ecosystem. Humans activities mediated more than 98% N inputs into the ZUE, 73.2% of N was released into the atmosphere and 11.7% into hydrosphere. This very large volume of released N could contribute to regional problems. High energy consumption, insufficient wastewater treatment facility practices, and low N use efficiency are the primary causes of pollution. The major challenge ahead for the urban ecosystem is how to manage high-intensity N pollutant inputs to the urban ecosystems coupled with incomplete N cycling and removal. Based on the analysis of the N budget and loading, this study also proposes an N management strategy for the ZUE.     

Interspecific association among main plant species in the unstable slope with high-frequency debris flow北大核心CSCD

To determine the characteristics of vegetation community structure and the relationship between species in the frequent watersheds of debris flow in fragile ecological environments, based on sample survey and 2 × 2 joint table techniques, we used analysis of variance test, χ2 test, Jaccard index, Pearson correlation coefficient, and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient test to study the main plant species correlations in the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone of the unstable slope. The analysis of variance test showed that all 45 species pairs had a significant negative correlation in the stable zone and instable zone, whereas there was no significant negative correlation in the deposit zone, which showed that the species had an independent distribution trend. The results from the different tests showed that there were 1 pair, 4 pairs, and 4 pairs from the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively, which had significant interspecific association under the χ2 test and the ratios of positive correlation pairs to negative correlation pairs were 0.55, 0.67, and 0.67 in the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively. There were 8 pairs, 5 pairs, and 5 pairs from the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively, which had significant interspecific association from the Pearson correlation analysis test, and the ratios of positive correlation pairs to negative correlation pairs were 0.36, 0.45, and 0.45 in the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively. There were 10 pairs, 6 pairs, and 9 pairs from the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively, which had significant interspecific association from the Spearman's rank correlation analysis test and the ratios of positive correlation pairs to negative correlation pairs were 0.5, 0.55, and 0.6 in the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively. The three test results showed general similarities but there were some differences. Most species pairs did not reach a significant level in the three zones and the number of negatively related species was more than the number of positively related species. In brief, this loose interspecific relationship indicates that the entire plant community was not stable, and the interspecific relationships among species are susceptible to environmental interference in the ecologically fragile areas of the debris flow basin. Therefore, rational selection and configuration of species should be applied to promote community structure development and ecological environmental improvement in vegetation restoration process areas with high-frequency debris flow. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.