CHAOTIC FORECASTING OF DISCHARGE TIME SERIES: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the problem of forecasting the discharge time series of a river by means of a chaotic approach. To this aim, we first check for some evidence of chaotic behavior in the dynamic by considering a set of different procedures, namely, the phase portrait of the attractor, the correlation dimension, and the largest Lyapunov exponent. Their joint application seems to confirm the presence of a nonlinear deterministic dynamic of chaotic type. Second, we consider the so‐called nearest neighbors predictor and we compare it with a classical linear model. By comparing these two predictors, it seems that nonlinear river flow modeling, and in particular chaotic modeling, is an effective method to improve predictions.     

SIMULATED ANNEALING WITH MEMORY AND DIRECTIONAL SEARCH FOR GROUND WATER REMEDIATION DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Review of recent literature indicates an emergence in the use of combinatorial methods such as simulated annealing in ground water management during the past nine to ten years. While previous studies demonstrated the feasibility of using these methods, a general finding was that computational processing requirements were inordinately high relative to gradient‐based methods. An enhanced annealing algorithm was developed and used to demonstrate the potential for greatly improving the computational efficiency of simulated annealing as an optimization method for ground water management applications. The algorithm incorporates “directional search” and “memory” capabilities. Selecting search directions based on better understanding of the current neighborhood of the configuration space was shown to improve algorithm performance. Also, “memory” concepts derived from the Tabu Search Method show particular promise for improving the rate and quality of convergence. Performance of the enhanced annealing method was evaluated and the resultant management method was demonstrated using an example from the literature.     

我国森林资源及其产品流动特征分析

论文运用物流分析的基本思想,基于我国森林资源产品的产量、贸易量统计资料,采用统一的“原木当量(m³)”单位,沿森林资源采伐→资源产品加工→资源产品消费链,研究了我国“九五”期间主要森林资源产品的流动状况。结果表明,我国“九五”期间年均消耗森林资源16962×10⁴m³,其中48.3%来自国外;本国森林资源主要流向原木、锯材、人造板加工制造行业,仅有9.3%用于制浆造纸;而纸类产品所用的森林资源主要依赖于进口;终端消费中75%的森林资源产品用于建筑装修、家具生产和包装3个主要消费项。因此,认为我国必须提高森林资源利用效率、增加纸类产品中的森林资源用量,以提高我国森林资源流动的经济效益;资源战略上既要充分利用国外森林资源,又要提高我国资源供给的保障能力。     

电解氧化法预处理垃圾渗滤液

采用连续式电解槽对垃圾渗滤液进行预处理研究.考察不同的电流密度、进水pH值、Cl-质量浓度等对电解效果的影响,从而确定了最佳操作条件.在最佳条件下,比较研究电解装置对3种不同来源的垃圾渗滤液各项指标的去除效果.结果表明,连续式电解法对中等COD质量浓度的垃圾渗滤液(COD质量浓度为2 000～10 000 mg/L)有较好的处理效果,可有效去除废水中的COD,氨氮和重金属,且对难降解的污染物(如苯胺、苯酚等)有良好的去除作用.该法提高了水质的可生化性,强化了后续生化处理,为中试及工业化工程设计应用提供了参考.      

自由表面流人工湿地处理超稠油废水

采用自由表面流芦苇湿地处理超稠油废水。当芦苇床的水力负荷为3．33cm/d时,对于年平均进水COD459．16mg/L,石油类27．65mg/L,BOD5 33.52mg/L,TN13.74mg/L的超稠油废水,该系统的出水指标为COD77．21mg/L,石油类1．42mg/L,BOD53.90mg/L,TN1.60mg/L。去除率分别为：COD83．18％,石油类94．86％,BOD588．37％,TN88．36％,pH值由7．87降至7．77。处理后的超稠油废水对土壤的污染并不明显,对芦苇的生长和材质指标几乎没有影响。可见,自由表面流芦苇湿地深度处理超稠油废水的出水水质稳定,耐冲击负荷强,是一种经济有效的超稠油废水处理新方法。     

基于节点流量校核的供水管网爆管定位研究

针对目前基于节点压力变化定位供水管网爆管的方法,当供水管网中泵切换时,导致定位爆管位置存在误报的问题,提出了基于节点流量校核的管网爆管定位方法.利用奇异矩阵法推导出节点流量灵敏度矩阵,采取奇异矩阵中的最优搜索向量计算方法找到节点流量变化位置,确定爆管管道.首先,将该方法应用于一个小管网,阐述基于节点流量校核的管网爆管定...     

DEM AGGREGATION FOR WATERSHED MODELING1

ABSTRACT: The widely available USGS 7.5‐minute Digital Elevation Model (DEM) has a cell size of approximately 30 m × 30 m. This high resolution topographic information is impractical for many applications of distributed hydrologic and water quality models. In this study, cells were aggregated into coarse‐resolution areal units, termed grids, and a method to approximate flow direction for coarse‐resolution grids from 30 m DEM cells was developed. The method considers the flow path defined from the fine‐resolution DEM in determining a grid's flow direction and makes flow directions for grids closely follow the flow pattern suggested by the DEM. The aggregation method was applied to a DEM of Goodwater Creek, a nearly flat watershed that is located in central Missouri. The drainage networks derived for different levels of cell aggregations showed that grid aggregates of the Goodwater Creek watershed provided an adequate representation of the landscape topography.     

Evaluation of recycling policies for PET bottles based on multiattribute utility indices

This study focused on waste plastic, especially the polyethylene telephthalate (PET) bottle as representative waste, which has been assigned as goods to be recycled by the Packaging Waste Recycling Law in Japan. We developed a plastic transport model which explained the entire flow of plastic from the production stage to the disposal stage within an the evaluation model of plastic recycle policy based on multiattribute utility theory. This model is designed to be used by local municipal governments in supporting the evaluation of the PET bottle recycling policy. In evaluating the plastics recycling policy, we selected indices relating to economy, ecology, and rate of resource recycling. The results indicate that when the evaluation of the material recycling policy and thermal recycling policy in the model city were characterized in terms of their economic and environmental aspects the thermal recycling policy had the highest utility within our scenario. Received: July 31, 1998 / Accepted: January 26, 1999     

阴燃中出现有焰火的理论初探

阴燃是一种自维持,不断传播的,异相反应的放热燃烧过程。典型的阴燃例子有蚝烟,地下煤矿的燃烧等。从热安全角度来看阴燃过程,不完全的氧化反应和可燃物热解都会产生很多的有毒气体,对人造成危害;另外在一定的条件下,阴燃还会突然转化为有焰火,进行更猛烈的燃烧,造成更大的破坏。     

倾角和循环流量对平板型光催化反应器性能的影响

考察了平板倾角和循环流量对平板反应器流动特性和性能的影响 ,并讨论了以太阳光为辐射光源时平板型反应器的最佳倾角问题 .研究表明 ,平板上液体体积 (V)和水膜厚度 (b)与倾角 (β)、循环流量 (Q)分别存在定量关系 .入射辐射条件相同时 ,在悬浮催化剂体系中 ,平板倾角越小 ,循环流量越大 ,反应器性能越高 ;在固定催化剂体系中 ,平板反应器 (长 1m,宽 0.48m)的性能最佳时的循环流量为 500L/h、倾角为 10°,相应雷诺数为 286.无论在悬浮催化剂还是固定催化剂体系中 ,周期性地辐射能提高反应速率 .